Moneyline
SF MLodds up −400
Won 93%
The 49ers win the game.
Confidence93%
Model72.4%
SportsbooksOdds78.9%
Edge−6.5
Washington Commanders vs San Francisco 49ers prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
| SF | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 23 |
COMMANDERS 28%
Pre-game win chance
72% 49ERS
SF by 3 · 43 points
Updated Oct 19, 11:37 PM ET
Commanders vs 49ers picks
3 picks · 49ers by 3 · 43 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
WAS +14.5odds down −270
Won 78%
The Commanders win, or lose by 14 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model67.8%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge−1.4
Total
Under 57odds up −208
Won 76%
The two teams score 56 or fewer points between them (exactly 57 is a push).
Confidence76%
Model69.7%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge−0.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Commanders0101001020
49ers0977923
Most likely final scoresWAS 20–23 SF 0.6%WAS 24–27 SF 0.6%WAS 20–27 SF 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Commanders49ers
Offense
307▲ 314
Total yards
▲ 375356
189▲ 261
Passing yards
▲ 249239
118▼ 53
Rushing yards
▲ 126117
18▲ 19
First downs
▼ 2021
Scoring
2= 2
Touchdowns
= 33
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
2▼ 1
Field goals made
= 11
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
2▲ 4
Sacks allowed
= 22
51▲ 66
Penalty yards
▲ 8849
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 260.5
Proj. 307
72%
Won · 314
Passing yards
Over 147.5
Proj. 189
72%
Won · 261
Rushing yards
Over 89.5
Proj. 118
72%
Lost · 53
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
69%
Won · 19
Total yards
Over 309.5
Proj. 356
72%
Won · 375
Passing yards
Over 198.5
Proj. 240
72%
Won · 249
Rushing yards
Over 88.5
Proj. 117
72%
Won · 126
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 21
71%
Won · 20
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Commanders
QB
Jayden Daniels16/26 · 159 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.0 INT
159pass yds
RB
Jacory Merritt12 carries · 40 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec
40rush yds
WR/TE
Terry McLaurin4 rec · 53 yds · 0.1 TD
53rec yds
WR/TE
Antonio Williams3 rec · 31 yds · 0.1 TD
31rec yds
49ers
QB
Brock Purdy22/33 · 239 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
239pass yds
RB
Christian McCaffrey12 carries · 52 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 4 rec
52rush yds
WR/TE
Mike Evans5 rec · 66 yds · 0.5 TD
66rec yds
WR/TE
George Kittle5 rec · 54 yds · 0.6 TD
54rec yds
Road form. The Commanders are 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 9.5 points a game.
Home form. The 49ers are 3-0 at home, scoring 31.7 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 50.5 and is now 52.
Rest. Both teams come in on 8 days’ rest.
Streak. The 49ers have won 5 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Washington CommandersSan Francisco 49ers
Washington CommandersSan Francisco 49ers
1-3-1Record5-0
0-2 roadRoad / home3-0 home
T1StreakW5
8 daysRest8 days
23.0Points per game30.8
29.8Points allowed18.6
−34
Point differentialseason to date
+61
5.1Yards per play6.4
188Passing yards / game236
140Rushing yards / game129
32%3rd-down conversion52%
50%Red-zone touchdowns88%
7Takeaways7
9Sacks11
2Turnovers5
5.1Yards per play7.2
185Passing yards / game267
157Rushing yards / game125
45%3rd-down conversion57%
67%Red-zone touchdowns90%
0Takeaways1
5Sacks6
1Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Commanders’ road games with the 49ers’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Commanders
1-3-1
LLWLT
Wk 5Oct 11vs NYG
Giants27Commanders27
Giants moneyline +146Commanders moneyline −182
TF/OT
Wk 4Oct 4vs IND
Colts30Commanders13
Colts moneyline −227Commanders moneyline +175
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs SEA
Seahawks31Commanders33
Seahawks moneyline −400Commanders moneyline +310
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ DAL
Commanders20Cowboys37
Commanders moneyline +170Cowboys moneyline −213
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ PHI
Commanders22Eagles24
Commanders moneyline +210Eagles moneyline −270
LFINAL
49ers
5-0
WWWWW
Wk 5Oct 11@ SEA
49ers32Seahawks29
49ers moneyline +130Seahawks moneyline −159
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs DEN
Broncos1449ers24
Broncos moneyline +13049ers moneyline −175
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs ARI
Cardinals3049ers36
Cardinals moneyline +30049ers moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs MIA
Dolphins1349ers35
Dolphins moneyline +56049ers moneyline −909
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 10@ LAR
49ers27Rams7
49ers moneyline +165Rams moneyline −204
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC East
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
Last two meetings · regular season and playoffs
COMMANDERS
0
Wins
Avg. points15.0 – 32.0
Avg. total47.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 2
2
49ERS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2023 · Wk 17FedExField
49ers27Commanders10
49ers moneyline −909Commanders moneyline +620
2022 · Wk 16Levi's Stadium
Commanders2049ers37
Commanders moneyline +24049ers moneyline −303
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (WAS)+320down +310
Moneyline (SF)−400up −385
Spread (SF)−7.5−7.5
Total50.5up 52
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The San Francisco 49ers beat the Washington Commanders 23–17 in NFL Week 6 of the 2026 season (Monday Night Football on ESPN), on Monday, October 19 at 8:15 PM ET, at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara. The moneyline had the Commanders at +310 and the 49ers at −385.
Our model predicted a final score of Commanders 20, 49ers 23. Its picks: the 49ers to win (−400), won; the Commanders +14.5 (−270), won; under 57 points (−208), won. The best pick was the Commanders +14.5, at 78% confidence.