Colorado State vs Texas State Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CSU	0	21	6	0	27
TXST	21	24	21	0	66

Colorado St vs Texas St picks

3 picks · Texas St by 3 · 59 points · 1 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

TXST MLodds down −833 Won 91%

Texas St wins the game.

Confidence91%

Model77.7% SportsbooksOdds82.4% Edge−4.7

Spread

CSU +21.5odds up −238 Lost 80%

Colorado St wins, or loses by 21 points or fewer.

Confidence80%

Model69.9% SportsbooksOdds70.8% Edge−0.9

Total

Under 76.5odds up −222 Lost 74%

The two teams score 76 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model79.3% SportsbooksOdds70.4% Edge+8.9

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Colorado St770141428

Texas St7103111731

Most likely final scoresCSU 28–31 TXST 0.5%CSU 35–38 TXST 0.5%CSU 31–38 TXST 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Colorado StTexas St

Offense

370▲ 430 Total yards ▲ 716520

246▲ 282 Passing yards ▼ 213262

124▲ 148 Rushing yards ▲ 503258

20▼ 18 First downs ▲ 3125

Scoring

4= 4 Touchdowns ▲ 94

2= 2 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

2= 2 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 82

0= 0 Field goals made = 11

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers = 11

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

0= 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

53▲ 77 Penalty yards ▼ 3058

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 296.5 Proj. 370 72% Won · 430

Passing yards Over 188.5 Proj. 246 72% Won · 282

Rushing yards Over 71.5 Proj. 124 72% Won · 148

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 20 74% Won · 18

Total yards Over 446.5 Proj. 520 72% Won · 716

Passing yards Over 205.5 Proj. 262 72% Won · 213

Rushing yards Over 205.5 Proj. 258 72% Won · 503

First downs Over 21.5 Proj. 25 70% Won · 31

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Colorado St

QB Ksaan Farrar17/26 · 142 pass yds · 0.7 TD · 0.4 INT 142pass yds

RB Durell Robinson13 carries · 38 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec 38rush yds

WR/TE Reginald Vick Jr5 rec · 66 yds · 0.6 TD 66rec yds

WR/TE Terrence Smith4 rec · 44 yds · 0.4 TD 44rec yds

Texas St

QB Brad Jackson18/26 · 240 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.8 INT 240pass yds

RB Torrance Burgess Jr.15 carries · 120 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec 120rush yds

WR/TE Chris Dawn Jr.5 rec · 59 yds · 0.6 TD 59rec yds

WR/TE Beau Sparks4 rec · 56 yds · 0.3 TD 56rec yds

Road form. Colorado St is 0-1 on the road this season, losing by 14.0 points a game.

Home form. Texas St is 2-1 at home, scoring 46.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at TXST −11.5 and is now TXST −14.5, a 3-point move toward Texas St.

Rest. Both teams come in on 12 days’ rest.

Streak. Colorado St has lost 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Colorado StateTexas State

2-3Record2-3

0-1 roadRoad / home2-1 home

L3StreakL1

12 daysRest12 days

37.4Points per game34.8

38.6Points allowed33.2

−6 Point differentialseason to date +8

273Passing yards / game268

175Rushing yards / game264

47%3rd-down conversion55%

11Takeaways5

0Sacks0

4Turnovers9

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Colorado St’s road games with Texas St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.