MoneylineBest pick
LAR MLodds up −769
Lost 90%
The Rams win the game.
Confidence90%
Model78.4%
SportsbooksOdds88.2%
Edge−9.8
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 18, 7:54 PM ET
Cardinals vs Rams picks
3 picks · Rams by 3 · 51 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
ARI +20.5odds down −286
Won 78%
The Cardinals win, or lose by 20 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model72.5%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge+2.6
Total
Under 59odds down −278
Won 77%
The two teams score 58 or fewer points between them (exactly 59 is a push).
Confidence77%
Model74.5%
SportsbooksOdds70.2%
Edge+4.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Cardinals37771024
Rams013771327
Most likely final scoresARI 24–27 LAR 0.6%ARI 10–27 LAR 0.6%ARI 27–30 LAR 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
CardinalsRams
Offense
293▲ 338
Total yards
▼ 286403
191▲ 218
Passing yards
▼ 194277
102▲ 120
Rushing yards
▼ 92126
18▲ 22
First downs
▼ 1923
Scoring
3▼ 0
Touchdowns
▼ 23
2▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
= 22
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
1▲ 6
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
2▼ 0
Sacks allowed
▲ 32
52▼ 51
Penalty yards
▼ 3151
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 246.5
Proj. 293
72%
Won · 338
Passing yards
Over 149.5
Proj. 191
72%
Won · 218
Rushing yards
Over 73.5
Proj. 102
72%
Won · 120
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
72%
Won · 22
Total yards
Over 356.5
Proj. 403
72%
Lost · 286
Passing yards
Over 235.5
Proj. 277
72%
Lost · 194
Rushing yards
Over 96.5
Proj. 125
72%
Lost · 92
First downs
Over 20.5
Proj. 23
72%
Lost · 19
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Cardinals
QB
Jacoby Brissett21/35 · 191 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
191pass yds
RB
Jeremiyah Love13 carries · 55 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
55rush yds
WR/TE
Trey McBride7 rec · 56 yds · 0.7 TD
56rec yds
WR/TE
Michael Wilson5 rec · 53 yds · 0.2 TD
53rec yds
Rams
QB
Matthew Stafford23/35 · 277 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
277pass yds
RB
Kyren Williams15 carries · 74 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 4 rec
74rush yds
WR/TE
Puka Nacua8 rec · 109 yds · 0.7 TD
109rec yds
WR/TE
Tyler Higbee4 rec · 51 yds · 0.4 TD
51rec yds
Road form. The Cardinals are 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 2.0 points a game.
Home form. The Rams are 1-2 at home, scoring 23.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at LAR −10.5 and is now LAR −12.5, a 2-point move toward the Rams.
Rest. The Cardinals come in on 7 days’ rest, the Rams on 6.
Division game. Two NFC West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Arizona CardinalsLos Angeles Rams
Arizona CardinalsLos Angeles Rams
1-4Record2-3
1-2 roadRoad / home1-2 home
L4StreakL1
7 daysRest6 days
21.6Points per game23.8
32.4Points allowed24.0
−54
Point differentialseason to date
−1
4.5Yards per play6.0
210Passing yards / game308
92Rushing yards / game117
41%3rd-down conversion45%
61%Red-zone touchdowns65%
7Takeaways5
11Sacks8
5Turnovers8
4.8Yards per play6.3
232Passing yards / game288
111Rushing yards / game121
43%3rd-down conversion44%
54%Red-zone touchdowns82%
6Takeaways4
7Sacks3
3Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Cardinals’ road games with the Rams’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Cardinals
1-4
WLLLL
Wk 5Oct 11vs DET
Lions45Cardinals21
Lions moneyline −250Cardinals moneyline +191
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ NYG
Cardinals24Giants36
Cardinals moneyline −139Giants moneyline +110
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ SF
Cardinals3049ers36
Cardinals moneyline +30049ers moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs SEA
Seahawks31Cardinals7
Seahawks moneyline −213Cardinals moneyline +170
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ LAC
Cardinals26Chargers14
Cardinals moneyline +360Chargers moneyline −500
WFINAL
Rams
2-3
LWLWL
Wk 5Oct 12vs BUF
Bills37Rams34
Bills moneyline +142Rams moneyline −175
LF/OT
Wk 4Oct 4@ PHI
Rams24Eagles20
Rams moneyline −200Eagles moneyline +162
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ DEN
Rams26Broncos30
Rams moneyline −118Broncos moneyline −106
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 21vs NYG
Giants6Rams28
Giants moneyline +235Rams moneyline −313
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 10vs SF
49ers27Rams7
49ers moneyline +165Rams moneyline −204
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameHead-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
CARDINALS
1
Wins
Avg. points20.2 – 28.4
Avg. total48.6 pts
Over closing total4 of 5
4
RAMS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 18SoFi Stadium
Cardinals20Rams37
Cardinals moneyline +700Rams moneyline −1111
2025 · Wk 14State Farm Stadium
Rams45Cardinals17
Rams moneyline −500Cardinals moneyline +350
2024 · Wk 17SoFi Stadium
Cardinals9Rams13
Cardinals moneyline +235Rams moneyline −303
2024 · Wk 2State Farm Stadium
Rams10Cardinals41
Rams moneyline −111Cardinals moneyline −111
2023 · Wk 12State Farm Stadium
Rams37Cardinals14
Rams moneyline −154Cardinals moneyline +130
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (ARI)+550+550
Moneyline (LAR)−833−833
Spread (LAR)−10.5down −12.5
Total50.5up 51.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Arizona Cardinals beat the Los Angeles Rams 18–16 in NFL Week 6 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 18 at 4:05 PM ET, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. The moneyline had the Cardinals at +550 and the Rams at −833.
Our model predicted a final score of Cardinals 24, Rams 27. Its picks: the Rams to win (−769), lost; the Cardinals +20.5 (−286), won; under 59 points (−278), won. The best pick was the Rams to win, at 90% confidence.