MoneylineBest pick
CHI MLodds up −278
Won 82%
The Bears win the game.
Confidence82%
Model62.0%
SportsbooksOdds71.8%
Edge−9.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 24 |
| CHI | 14 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 27 |
BUCCANEERS 38%
Pre-game win chance
62% BEARS
CHI by 3 · 43 points
Updated Nov 8, 11:45 PM ET
Buccaneers vs Bears picks
3 picks · Bears by 3 · 43 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
TB +11.5odds up −238
Won 78%
The Buccaneers win, or lose by 11 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model72.6%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+4.5
Total
Under 53odds up −217
Won 76%
The two teams score 52 or fewer points between them (exactly 53 is a push).
Confidence76%
Model70.5%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge+0.6
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Buccaneers010371020
Bears0100131023
Most likely final scoresTB 20–23 CHI 0.9%TB 17–20 CHI 0.8%TB 24–27 CHI 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BuccaneersBears
Offense
305▲ 352
Total yards
▲ 349347
174▲ 226
Passing yards
▲ 277233
131▼ 126
Rushing yards
▼ 72114
17▲ 18
First downs
▼ 1520
Scoring
2= 2
Touchdowns
= 33
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
= 22
1▲ 2
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▲ 3
Field goals made
▲ 21
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▲ 51
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
▲ 41
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
3▲ 4
Sacks allowed
▼ 12
51▼ 45
Penalty yards
▲ 7454
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 258.5
Proj. 305
72%
Won · 352
Passing yards
Over 132.5
Proj. 174
72%
Won · 226
Rushing yards
Over 102.5
Proj. 131
72%
Won · 126
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
73%
Won · 18
Total yards
Over 300.5
Proj. 347
72%
Won · 349
Passing yards
Over 191.5
Proj. 233
72%
Won · 277
Rushing yards
Over 85.5
Proj. 114
72%
Lost · 72
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
75%
Lost · 15
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Buccaneers
QB
Baker Mayfield17/26 · 174 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.4 INT
174pass yds
RB
Bucky Irving15 carries · 69 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec
69rush yds
WR/TE
Chris Godwin4 rec · 40 yds · 0.0 TD
40rec yds
WR/TE
Tez Johnson2 rec · 33 yds · 0.2 TD
33rec yds
Bears
QB
Caleb Williams22/34 · 233 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.0 INT
233pass yds
RB
D'Andre Swift15 carries · 55 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 3 rec
55rush yds
WR/TE
Luther Burden III5 rec · 72 yds · 1.0 TD
72rec yds
WR/TE
Colston Loveland5 rec · 49 yds · 0.7 TD
49rec yds
Road form. The Buccaneers are 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 10.7 points a game.
Home form. The Bears are 3-1 at home, scoring 20.8 points a game there.
Rest. The Buccaneers come in on 7 days’ rest, the Bears on 6.
Streak. The Bears have won 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Tampa Bay BuccaneersChicago Bears
Tampa Bay BuccaneersChicago Bears
3-5Record6-2
2-1 roadRoad / home3-1 home
W2StreakW3
7 daysRest6 days
22.3Points per game26.8
18.9Points allowed20.0
+27
Point differentialseason to date
+54
4.8Yards per play5.4
131Passing yards / game237
169Rushing yards / game151
38%3rd-down conversion44%
50%Red-zone touchdowns59%
16Takeaways11
16Sacks22
12Turnovers12
5.8Yards per play5.3
145Passing yards / game240
196Rushing yards / game153
54%3rd-down conversion38%
62%Red-zone touchdowns37%
8Takeaways4
6Sacks10
4Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Buccaneers’ road games with the Bears’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Buccaneers
3-5
LWLWW
Wk 8Nov 1vs ATL
Falcons0Buccaneers16
Falcons moneyline +113Buccaneers moneyline −133
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25@ CAR
Buccaneers43Panthers13
Buccaneers moneyline +139Panthers moneyline −164
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs PIT
Steelers26Buccaneers19
Steelers moneyline −135Buccaneers moneyline +116
LF/OT
Wk 5Oct 8@ DAL
Buccaneers24Cowboys16
Buccaneers moneyline +370Cowboys moneyline −526
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs GB
Packers17Buccaneers14
Packers moneyline −156Buccaneers moneyline +130
LFINAL
Bears
6-2
WLWWW
Wk 8Nov 2@ SEA
Bears34Seahawks17
Bears moneyline +149Seahawks moneyline −179
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 22vs NE
Patriots24Bears30
Patriots moneyline +134Bears moneyline −159
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18@ ATL
Bears31Falcons23
Bears moneyline −118Falcons moneyline −103
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ GB
Bears7Packers31
Bears moneyline −122Packers moneyline +100
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs NYJ
Jets12Bears23
Jets moneyline +155Bears moneyline −192
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC South
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
BUCCANEERS
1
Wins
Avg. points27.0 – 17.0
Avg. total44.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
BEARS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2023 · Wk 2Raymond James Stadium
Bears17Buccaneers27
Bears moneyline +116Buccaneers moneyline −139
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (TB)+220+220
Moneyline (CHI)−270−270
Spread (CHI)−6.5−6.5
Total47.547.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Chicago Bears beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27–24 in NFL Week 9 of the 2026 season (Sunday Night Football on NBC), on Sunday, November 8 at 8:20 PM ET, at Soldier Field, Chicago. The moneyline had the Buccaneers at +220 and the Bears at −270.
Our model predicted a final score of Buccaneers 20, Bears 23. Its picks: the Bears to win (−278), won; the Buccaneers +11.5 (−238), won; under 53 points (−217), won. The best pick was the Bears to win, at 82% confidence.