Moneyline
DEN MLodds down −233
Won 78%
The Broncos win the game.
Confidence78%
Model64.0%
SportsbooksOdds67.1%
Edge−3.1
Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 25, 7:43 PM ET
Broncos vs Cardinals picks
3 picks · Broncos by 3 · 51 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
ARI +9.5odds up −227
Lost 78%
The Cardinals win, or lose by nine points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model67.1%
SportsbooksOdds68.0%
Edge−0.9
Total
Over 37.5odds down −270
Won 76%
The two teams score 38 or more points between them.
Confidence76%
Model68.7%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+0.6
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Broncos733141027
Cardinals77731424
Most likely final scoresDEN 27–24 ARI 0.9%DEN 23–20 ARI 0.8%DEN 27–20 ARI 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BroncosCardinals
Offense
307▲ 377
Total yards
▲ 353320
201▲ 218
Passing yards
▲ 259209
106▲ 159
Rushing yards
▼ 94111
19▼ 18
First downs
▲ 2420
Scoring
3= 3
Touchdowns
▼ 13
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▲ 3
Field goals made
▲ 31
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
2▼ 1
Sacks allowed
= 33
49▲ 114
Penalty yards
▲ 5953
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 260.5
Proj. 307
72%
Won · 377
Passing yards
Over 159.5
Proj. 201
72%
Won · 218
Rushing yards
Over 78.5
Proj. 107
72%
Won · 159
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
70%
Won · 18
Total yards
Over 274.5
Proj. 321
72%
Won · 353
Passing yards
Over 168.5
Proj. 209
72%
Won · 259
Rushing yards
Over 82.5
Proj. 111
72%
Won · 94
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 20
69%
Won · 24
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Broncos
QB
Bo Nix20/31 · 201 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT
201pass yds
RB
J.K. Dobbins15 carries · 57 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec
57rush yds
WR/TE
Jaylen Waddle4 rec · 45 yds · 0.3 TD
45rec yds
WR/TE
RJ Harvey5 rec · 45 yds · 0.0 TD
45rec yds
Cardinals
QB
Jacoby Brissett23/38 · 209 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
209pass yds
RB
Tyler Allgeier9 carries · 30 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
30rush yds
WR/TE
Trey McBride7 rec · 60 yds · 0.7 TD
60rec yds
WR/TE
Michael Wilson5 rec · 53 yds · 0.2 TD
53rec yds
Road form. The Broncos are 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 8.3 points a game.
Home form. The Cardinals are 0-2 at home, scoring 14.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at ARI +5.5 and is now ARI +4.5, a 1-point move toward the Cardinals.
Rest. The Broncos come in on 10 days’ rest, the Cardinals on 7.
Tale of the tape
Denver BroncosArizona Cardinals
Denver BroncosArizona Cardinals
4-2Record2-4
1-2 roadRoad / home0-2 home
W2StreakW1
10 daysRest7 days
19.0Points per game21.0
20.8Points allowed29.7
−11
Point differentialseason to date
−52
4.4Yards per play4.6
168Passing yards / game211
84Rushing yards / game96
32%3rd-down conversion39%
61%Red-zone touchdowns48%
10Takeaways8
18Sacks14
6Turnovers6
4.1Yards per play4.1
149Passing yards / game176
83Rushing yards / game63
27%3rd-down conversion37%
50%Red-zone touchdowns80%
4Takeaways1
7Sacks4
4Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Broncos’ road games with the Cardinals’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Broncos
4-2
WWLWW
Wk 6Oct 15vs SEA
Seahawks14Broncos17
Seahawks moneyline −147Broncos moneyline +120
WF/OT
Wk 5Oct 11@ LAC
Broncos23Chargers17
Broncos moneyline −189Chargers moneyline +151
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ SF
Broncos1449ers24
Broncos moneyline +13049ers moneyline −175
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs LAR
Rams26Broncos30
Rams moneyline −118Broncos moneyline −106
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs JAX
Jaguars13Broncos20
Jaguars moneyline +125Broncos moneyline −152
WFINAL
Cardinals
2-4
LLLLW
Wk 6Oct 18@ LAR
Cardinals18Rams16
Cardinals moneyline +550Rams moneyline −833
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs DET
Lions45Cardinals21
Lions moneyline −250Cardinals moneyline +191
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ NYG
Cardinals24Giants36
Cardinals moneyline −139Giants moneyline +110
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ SF
Cardinals3049ers36
Cardinals moneyline +30049ers moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs SEA
Seahawks31Cardinals7
Seahawks moneyline −213Cardinals moneyline +170
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC West
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
BRONCOS
1
Wins
Avg. points24.0 – 15.0
Avg. total39.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
CARDINALS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2022 · Wk 15Empower Field at Mile High
Cardinals15Broncos24
Cardinals moneyline +104Broncos moneyline −127
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (DEN)−233−233
Moneyline (ARI)+185up +190
Spread (ARI)+5.5down +4.5
Total45.5down 44.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Denver Broncos beat the Arizona Cardinals 30–16 in NFL Week 7 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 25 at 4:05 PM ET, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale. The moneyline had the Broncos at −233 and the Cardinals at +190.
Our model predicted a final score of Broncos 27, Cardinals 24. Its picks: the Broncos to win (−233), won; the Cardinals +9.5 (−227), lost; over 37.5 points (−270), won. The best pick was the Cardinals +9.5, at 78% confidence.