Moneyline
BSU MLodds down −909
Won 95%
Boise St wins the game.
Confidence95%
Model85.1%
SportsbooksOdds87.8%
Edge−2.7
Boise State vs Colorado State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSU | 22 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 64 |
| CSU | 7 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 38 |
BOISE ST 85%
Pre-game win chance
15% COLORADO ST
BSU by 3 · 59 points
Updated Nov 7, 9:41 PM ET
Boise St vs Colorado St picks
3 picks · Boise St by 3 · 59 points · 1 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
CSU +24.5odds down −286
Lost 76%
Colorado St wins, or loses by 24 points or fewer.
Confidence76%
Model67.3%
SportsbooksOdds68.0%
Edge−0.7
Total
Under 76.5odds up −227
Lost 74%
The two teams score 76 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model75.9%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge+8.7
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Boise St07717731
Colorado St77771428
Most likely final scoresBSU 31–28 CSU 0.5%BSU 41–17 CSU 0.4%BSU 45–21 CSU 0.4%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Boise StColorado St
Offense
490▲ 669
Total yards
▲ 513352
229▲ 317
Passing yards
▲ 306235
261▲ 352
Rushing yards
▲ 207117
24▲ 28
First downs
▲ 2218
Scoring
4▲ 9
Touchdowns
▲ 54
1▲ 4
Passing touchdowns
▲ 32
3▲ 5
Rushing touchdowns
= 22
1▼ 0
Field goals made
▲ 10
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
53▼ 50
Penalty yards
▲ 7048
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 416.5
Proj. 490
72%
Won · 669
Passing yards
Over 171.5
Proj. 229
72%
Won · 317
Rushing yards
Over 208.5
Proj. 261
72%
Won · 352
First downs
Over 20.5
Proj. 24
72%
Won · 28
Total yards
Over 278.5
Proj. 352
72%
Won · 513
Passing yards
Over 177.5
Proj. 235
72%
Won · 306
Rushing yards
Over 65.5
Proj. 117
72%
Won · 207
First downs
Over 13.5
Proj. 18
74%
Won · 22
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Boise St
QB
Maddux Madsen18/26 · 229 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
229pass yds
RB
Dylan Riley20 carries · 151 rush yds · 1.7 TD · 2 rec
151rush yds
WR/TE
Rasean Jones5 rec · 78 yds · 0.1 TD
78rec yds
WR/TE
Matt Wagner3 rec · 42 yds · 0.3 TD
42rec yds
Colorado St
QB
Hauss Hejny15/24 · 190 pass yds · 1.7 TD · 0.4 INT
190pass yds
RB
Durell Robinson13 carries · 50 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 1 rec
50rush yds
WR/TE
Terrence Smith3 rec · 38 yds · 0.4 TD
38rec yds
WR/TE
Tommy Maher3 rec · 37 yds · 0.4 TD
37rec yds
Road form. Boise St is 3-1 on the road this season, winning by 11.5 points a game.
Home form. Colorado St is 3-2 at home, scoring 39.6 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at CSU +18.5 and is now CSU +16.5, a 2-point move toward Colorado St.
Rest. Boise St comes in on 8 days’ rest, Colorado St on 7.
Streak. Boise St has won 7 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Boise StateColorado State
Boise StateColorado State
7-1Record3-5
3-1 roadRoad / home3-2 home
W7StreakL1
8 daysRest7 days
35.9Points per game35.5
23.6Points allowed42.4
+98
Point differentialseason to date
−55
181Passing yards / game271
208Rushing yards / game165
52%3rd-down conversion46%
7Takeaways14
0Sacks0
3Turnovers8
193Passing yards / game271
200Rushing yards / game187
48%3rd-down conversion55%
3Takeaways13
0Sacks0
0Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Boise St’s road games with Colorado St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Boise St
7-1
WWWWW
Wk 9Oct 30vs TXST
Texas St45Boise St46
Texas St moneyline +330Boise St moneyline −500
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ WSU
Boise St31Washington St10
Boise St moneyline −833Washington St moneyline +475
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ FRES
Boise St38Fresno St31
Boise St moneyline −345Fresno St moneyline +213
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs USU
Utah State18Boise St37
Utah State moneyline +660Boise St moneyline −1667
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ WMU
Boise St32W Michigan7
Boise St moneyline −370W Michigan moneyline +250
WFINAL
Colorado St
3-5
LLLWL
Wk 9Oct 31@ USU
Colorado St14Utah State31
Colorado St moneyline +250Utah State moneyline −345
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs SDSU
San Diego St49Colorado St56
San Diego St moneyline −112Colorado St moneyline −119
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 15@ TXST
Colorado St27Texas St66
Colorado St moneyline +397Texas St moneyline −714
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ORST
Oregon St56Colorado St26
Oregon St moneyline −278Colorado St moneyline +200
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ UTSA
Colorado St45UTSA59
Colorado St moneyline +440UTSA moneyline −714
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gamePac-12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
BOISE ST
1
Wins
Avg. points49.0 – 21.0
Avg. total70.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
COLORADO ST
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 13Boise St home
Colorado St21Boise St49
Colorado St moneyline +610Boise St moneyline −1250
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (BSU)−769down −833
Moneyline (CSU)+500up +525
Spread (CSU)+18.5down +16.5
Total68.568.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Boise State beat Colorado State 64–38 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 6:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Boise State at −833 and Colorado State at +525.
Our model predicted a final score of Boise St 31, Colorado St 28. Its picks: Boise State to win (−909), won; Colorado State +24.5 (−286), lost; under 76.5 points (−227), lost. The best pick was Colorado State +24.5, at 76% confidence.