Moneyline
BUF MLodds down −192
Won 51%
The Bills win the game.
Confidence51%
Model51.1%
SportsbooksOdds62.1%
Edge−11.0
Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 9, 11:38 PM ET
Bills vs Vikings picks
3 picks · Bills by 3 · 51 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
MIN +7.5odds up −222
Lost 80%
The Vikings win, or lose by seven points or fewer.
Confidence80%
Model75.3%
SportsbooksOdds67.1%
Edge+8.2
TotalBest pick
Under 52.5odds down −278
Won 77%
The two teams score 52 or fewer points between them.
Confidence77%
Model67.7%
SportsbooksOdds68.2%
Edge−0.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Bills143371727
Vikings0101401024
Most likely final scoresBUF 27–24 MIN 0.9%BUF 20–17 MIN 0.8%BUF 23–20 MIN 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BillsVikings
Offense
327▲ 339
Total yards
▼ 178308
186▲ 205
Passing yards
▼ 127200
141▼ 134
Rushing yards
▼ 51108
20▲ 22
First downs
▼ 919
Scoring
3▼ 2
Touchdowns
▼ 03
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 02
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▲ 3
Field goals made
▲ 21
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 31
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
3▲ 4
Sacks allowed
= 22
56▲ 62
Penalty yards
▼ 2051
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 281.5
Proj. 328
72%
Won · 339
Passing yards
Over 145.5
Proj. 187
72%
Won · 205
Rushing yards
Over 112.5
Proj. 141
72%
Won · 134
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
73%
Won · 22
Total yards
Over 261.5
Proj. 308
72%
Lost · 178
Passing yards
Over 158.5
Proj. 200
72%
Lost · 127
Rushing yards
Over 79.5
Proj. 108
72%
Lost · 51
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
70%
Lost · 9
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Bills
QB
Josh Allen18/29 · 186 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
186pass yds
RB
James Cook19 carries · 96 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec
96rush yds
WR/TE
Khalil Shakir4 rec · 41 yds · 0.2 TD
41rec yds
WR/TE
Dalton Kincaid3 rec · 36 yds · 0.4 TD
36rec yds
Vikings
QB
Kyler Murray20/32 · 200 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
200pass yds
RB
Aaron Jones16 carries · 65 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec
65rush yds
WR/TE
Justin Jefferson5 rec · 60 yds · 0.8 TD
60rec yds
WR/TE
T.J. Hockenson5 rec · 50 yds · 0.8 TD
50rec yds
Road form. The Bills are 3-0 on the road this season, winning by 3.7 points a game.
Home form. The Vikings are 3-0 at home, scoring 23.3 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 46.5 and is now 45.
Rest. Both teams come in on 8 days’ rest.
Streak. The Bills have won 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Buffalo BillsMinnesota Vikings
Buffalo BillsMinnesota Vikings
6-1Record6-1
3-0 roadRoad / home3-0 home
W3StreakL1
8 daysRest8 days
33.3Points per game20.0
25.9Points allowed13.3
+52
Point differentialseason to date
+47
6.3Yards per play4.7
245Passing yards / game166
148Rushing yards / game114
44%3rd-down conversion36%
70%Red-zone touchdowns56%
9Takeaways12
15Sacks25
11Turnovers5
6.9Yards per play4.5
256Passing yards / game161
141Rushing yards / game122
33%3rd-down conversion43%
62%Red-zone touchdowns56%
3Takeaways4
4Sacks10
2Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Bills’ road games with the Vikings’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Bills
6-1
WLWWW
Wk 8Nov 1vs BAL
Ravens10Bills36
Ravens moneyline +147Bills moneyline −175
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18@ LV
Bills33Raiders30
Bills moneyline −238Raiders moneyline +195
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 12@ LAR
Bills37Rams34
Bills moneyline +142Rams moneyline −175
WF/OT
Wk 4Oct 4vs NE
Patriots29Bills26
Patriots moneyline +260Bills moneyline −333
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs LAC
Chargers16Bills24
Chargers moneyline +270Bills moneyline −345
WFINAL
Vikings
6-1
WWWWL
Wk 8Nov 1@ DET
Vikings15Lions19
Vikings moneyline +154Lions moneyline −185
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25vs IND
Colts10Vikings16
Colts moneyline +270Vikings moneyline −345
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ NO
Vikings23Saints13
Vikings moneyline −141Saints moneyline +115
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs MIA
Dolphins10Vikings15
Dolphins moneyline +400Vikings moneyline −556
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ TB
Vikings23Buccaneers16
Vikings moneyline −116Buccaneers moneyline −105
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC East
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
BILLS
0
Wins
Avg. points30.0 – 33.0
Avg. total63.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
1
VIKINGS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2022 · Wk 10Highmark Stadium
Vikings33Bills30
Vikings moneyline +215Bills moneyline −263
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (BUF)−189−189
Moneyline (MIN)+155+155
Spread (MIN)+3.5+3.5
Total46.5down 45
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Buffalo Bills beat the Minnesota Vikings 23–6 in NFL Week 9 of the 2026 season (Monday Night Football on ESPN), on Monday, November 9 at 8:15 PM ET, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis. The moneyline had the Bills at −189 and the Vikings at +155.
Our model predicted a final score of Bills 27, Vikings 24. Its picks: the Bills to win (−192), won; the Vikings +7.5 (−222), lost; under 52.5 points (−278), won. The best pick was under 52.5 points, at 77% confidence.