Moneyline
LAR MLodds down −182
Lost 59%
The Rams win the game.
Confidence59%
Model54.2%
SportsbooksOdds61.0%
Edge−6.8
Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 12, 11:52 PM ET
Bills vs Rams picks
3 picks · Rams by 3 · 43 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
BUF +8.5odds down −278
Won 85%
The Bills win, or lose by eight points or fewer.
Confidence85%
Model75.1%
SportsbooksOdds69.5%
Edge+5.6
TotalBest pick
Under 61.5odds up −238
Lost 85%
The two teams score 61 or fewer points between them.
Confidence85%
Model77.5%
SportsbooksOdds69.6%
Edge+7.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Bills3377620
Rams010761023
Most likely final scoresBUF 20–23 LAR 0.8%BUF 24–27 LAR 0.8%BUF 17–20 LAR 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BillsRams
Offense
323▲ 436
Total yards
▲ 454386
202= 202
Passing yards
▲ 377262
121▲ 234
Rushing yards
▼ 77124
20▲ 25
First downs
▲ 3323
Scoring
2▲ 4
Touchdowns
▲ 53
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▲ 32
1▲ 3
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
2▲ 3
Field goals made
▼ 01
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▼ 01
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
0▲ 1
Fumbles lost
= 00
2▼ 1
Sacks allowed
▼ 12
49▲ 112
Penalty yards
▲ 8451
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 276.5
Proj. 323
72%
Won · 436
Passing yards
Over 160.5
Proj. 202
72%
Won · 202
Rushing yards
Over 92.5
Proj. 121
72%
Won · 234
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 20
69%
Won · 25
Total yards
Over 339.5
Proj. 386
72%
Won · 454
Passing yards
Over 220.5
Proj. 262
72%
Won · 377
Rushing yards
Over 95.5
Proj. 124
72%
Lost · 77
First downs
Over 19.5
Proj. 23
74%
Won · 33
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Bills
QB
Josh Allen19/32 · 202 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
202pass yds
RB
James Cook17 carries · 92 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec
92rush yds
WR/TE
Keon Coleman3 rec · 44 yds · 0.2 TD
44rec yds
WR/TE
Khalil Shakir4 rec · 36 yds · 0.0 TD
36rec yds
Rams
QB
Matthew Stafford23/37 · 262 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
262pass yds
RB
Kyren Williams14 carries · 72 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 5 rec
72rush yds
WR/TE
Davante Adams5 rec · 88 yds · 0.7 TD
88rec yds
WR/TE
Tyler Higbee4 rec · 44 yds · 1.0 TD
44rec yds
Road form. The Bills are 1-0 on the road this season, winning by 5.0 points a game.
Home form. The Rams are 1-1 at home, scoring 17.5 points a game there.
Rest. Both teams come in on 8 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
Buffalo BillsLos Angeles Rams
Buffalo BillsLos Angeles Rams
3-1Record2-2
1-0 roadRoad / home1-1 home
L1StreakW1
8 daysRest8 days
31.8Points per game21.3
26.8Points allowed20.8
+20
Point differentialseason to date
+2
6.5Yards per play6.0
247Passing yards / game290
139Rushing yards / game127
53%3rd-down conversion43%
69%Red-zone touchdowns53%
5Takeaways3
10Sacks7
7Turnovers8
7.9Yards per play6.6
323Passing yards / game243
86Rushing yards / game143
33%3rd-down conversion39%
33%Red-zone touchdowns67%
2Takeaways2
3Sacks2
0Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Bills’ road games with the Rams’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Bills
3-1
LWWWL
Wk 4Oct 4vs NE
Patriots29Bills26
Patriots moneyline +260Bills moneyline −333
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs LAC
Chargers16Bills24
Chargers moneyline +270Bills moneyline −345
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 17vs DET
Lions31Bills41
Lions moneyline +190Bills moneyline −244
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ HOU
Bills36Texans31
Bills moneyline −120Texans moneyline −102
WFINAL
DivisionalJan 17, 2026@ DEN
Bills30Broncos33
Bills moneyline +102Broncos moneyline −120
LF/OT
Rams
2-2
LLWLW
Wk 4Oct 4@ PHI
Rams24Eagles20
Rams moneyline −200Eagles moneyline +162
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ DEN
Rams26Broncos30
Rams moneyline −118Broncos moneyline −106
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 21vs NYG
Giants6Rams28
Giants moneyline +235Rams moneyline −313
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 10vs SF
49ers27Rams7
49ers moneyline +165Rams moneyline −204
LFINAL
Conf. Champ.Jan 25, 2026@ SEA
Rams27Seahawks31
Rams moneyline +117Seahawks moneyline −141
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC East
Head-to-head
Last two meetings · regular season and playoffs
BILLS
1
Wins
Avg. points36.5 – 27.0
Avg. total63.5 pts
Over closing total1 of 2
1
RAMS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2024 · Wk 14SoFi Stadium
Bills42Rams44
Bills moneyline −192Rams moneyline +155
2022 · Wk 1SoFi Stadium
Bills31Rams10
Bills moneyline −133Rams moneyline +112
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (BUF)+142+142
Moneyline (LAR)−175−175
Spread (LAR)−3.5−3.5
Total54.5up 55
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Buffalo Bills beat the Los Angeles Rams 37–34 in NFL Week 5 of the 2026 season (Monday Night Football on ESPN), on Monday, October 12 at 8:15 PM ET, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. The moneyline had the Bills at +142 and the Rams at −175.
Our model predicted a final score of Bills 20, Rams 23. Its picks: the Rams to win (−182), lost; the Bills +8.5 (−278), won; under 61.5 points (−238), lost. The best pick was under 61.5 points, at 85% confidence.