Moneyline
CIN MLodds down −189
Won 72%
The Bengals win the game.
Confidence72%
Model60.9%
SportsbooksOdds61.1%
Edge−0.2
Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 8, 12:46 PM ET
Bengals vs Falcons picks
3 picks · Bengals by 3 · 43 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
ATL +7.5odds down −250
Lost 74%
The Falcons win, or lose by seven points or fewer.
Confidence74%
Model66.6%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge−0.6
TotalBest pick
Under 58.5odds up −238
Won 77%
The two teams score 58 or fewer points between them.
Confidence77%
Model74.0%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge+4.8
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Bengals73761023
Falcons77061420
Most likely final scoresCIN 23–20 ATL 0.8%CIN 20–17 ATL 0.7%CIN 27–24 ATL 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BengalsFalcons
Offense
366▲ 388
Total yards
▼ 319338
253▲ 265
Passing yards
▼ 162211
113▲ 123
Rushing yards
▲ 157127
21▲ 24
First downs
▲ 2019
Scoring
3▲ 4
Touchdowns
= 22
2▲ 3
Passing touchdowns
= 11
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
1▲ 2
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
2= 2
Sacks allowed
▼ 02
52▼ 43
Penalty yards
▲ 8853
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 319.5
Proj. 366
72%
Won · 388
Passing yards
Over 212.5
Proj. 254
72%
Won · 265
Rushing yards
Over 84.5
Proj. 113
72%
Won · 123
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
73%
Won · 24
Total yards
Over 291.5
Proj. 338
72%
Won · 319
Passing yards
Over 169.5
Proj. 211
72%
Lost · 162
Rushing yards
Over 98.5
Proj. 127
72%
Won · 157
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
74%
Won · 20
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Bengals
QB
Joe Burrow25/36 · 253 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
253pass yds
RB
Chase Brown16 carries · 70 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 5 rec
70rush yds
WR/TE
Tee Higgins6 rec · 95 yds · 0.4 TD
95rec yds
WR/TE
Ja'Marr Chase6 rec · 69 yds · 0.6 TD
69rec yds
Falcons
QB
Michael Penix Jr.19/31 · 211 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
211pass yds
RB
Bijan Robinson18 carries · 99 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec
99rush yds
WR/TE
Drake London6 rec · 91 yds · 0.1 TD
91rec yds
WR/TE
Kyle Pitts4 rec · 30 yds · 0.4 TD
30rec yds
Road form. The Bengals are 3-1 on the road this season, winning by 10.0 points a game.
Home form. The Falcons are 1-3 at home, scoring 19.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at ATL +5.5 and is now ATL +3.5, a 2-point move toward the Falcons.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. The Bengals have won 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Cincinnati BengalsAtlanta Falcons
Cincinnati BengalsAtlanta Falcons
5-2Record3-5
3-1 roadRoad / home1-3 home
W3StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
29.4Points per game21.4
22.6Points allowed23.6
+48
Point differentialseason to date
−18
6.0Yards per play5.4
288Passing yards / game188
80Rushing yards / game135
53%3rd-down conversion33%
68%Red-zone touchdowns64%
11Takeaways10
23Sacks18
10Turnovers16
5.6Yards per play4.9
231Passing yards / game198
90Rushing yards / game103
51%3rd-down conversion37%
77%Red-zone touchdowns55%
5Takeaways6
13Sacks12
3Turnovers9
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Bengals’ road games with the Falcons’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Bengals
5-2
LLWWW
Wk 8Nov 1vs TEN
Titans36Bengals43
Titans moneyline +650Bengals moneyline −1000
WF/OT
Wk 7Oct 25@ BAL
Bengals35Ravens13
Bengals moneyline −154Ravens moneyline +130
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ MIA
Bengals31Dolphins24
Bengals moneyline −370Dolphins moneyline +267
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs JAX
Jaguars22Bengals17
Jaguars moneyline +116Bengals moneyline −149
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ PIT
Bengals27Steelers30
Bengals moneyline −182Steelers moneyline +150
LFINAL
Falcons
3-5
WLLWL
Wk 8Nov 1@ TB
Falcons0Buccaneers16
Falcons moneyline +113Buccaneers moneyline −133
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25vs SF
49ers20Falcons29
49ers moneyline −143Falcons moneyline +121
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs CHI
Bears31Falcons23
Bears moneyline −118Falcons moneyline −103
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs BAL
Ravens30Falcons23
Ravens moneyline +145Falcons moneyline −175
LF/OT
Wk 4Oct 5@ NO
Falcons45Saints24
Falcons moneyline −102Saints moneyline −120
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC North
NFC South
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
BENGALS
1
Wins
Avg. points35.0 – 17.0
Avg. total52.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
FALCONS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2022 · Wk 7Paycor Stadium
Falcons17Bengals35
Falcons moneyline +235Bengals moneyline −278
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (CIN)−182−182
Moneyline (ATL)+151+151
Spread (ATL)+5.5down +3.5
Total49.5up 52.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Cincinnati Bengals beat the Atlanta Falcons 34–17 in NFL Week 9 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 8 at 9:30 AM ET, at Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid (neutral site). The moneyline had the Bengals at −182 and the Falcons at +151.
Our model predicted a final score of Bengals 23, Falcons 20. Its picks: the Bengals to win (−189), won; the Falcons +7.5 (−250), lost; under 58.5 points (−238), won. The best pick was under 58.5 points, at 77% confidence.