Auburn vs Mississippi State Prediction & Picks

Auburn vs Mississippi St picks

3 picks · Mississippi St by 3 · 59 points

Moneyline

MSST MLodds down +110 55%

Mississippi St wins the game.

Confidence55%

Model51.3% SportsbooksOdds43.4% Edge+7.9

SpreadBest pick

MSST +7.5odds up −250 77%

Mississippi St wins, or loses by seven points or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model72.6% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge+3.4

Total

Over 43.5odds up −233 74%

The two teams score 44 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model72.8% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge+4.5

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Auburn0140141428

Mississippi St0107141031

Most likely final scoresAUB 28–31 MSST 0.6%AUB 21–28 MSST 0.6%AUB 27–30 MSST 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

AuburnMississippi St

Offense

369 Total yards 395

228 Passing yards 245

141 Rushing yards 150

21 First downs 22

Scoring

3 Touchdowns 4

2 Passing touchdowns 2

1 Rushing touchdowns 2

2 Field goals made 1

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

60 Penalty yards 57

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 295.5 Proj. 369 72%

Passing yards Over 171.5 Proj. 228 72%

Rushing yards Over 88.5 Proj. 141 72%

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 21 74%

Total yards Over 322.5 Proj. 395 72%

Passing yards Over 188.5 Proj. 245 72%

Rushing yards Over 97.5 Proj. 150 72%

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 70%

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Auburn

QB Byrum Brown20/30 · 203 pass yds · 1.7 TD · 0.6 INT 203pass yds

RB Jeremiah Cobb8 carries · 39 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec 39rush yds

WR/TE Keshaun Singleton5 rec · 54 yds · 0.6 TD 54rec yds

WR/TE Christian Neptune4 rec · 31 yds · 0.0 TD 31rec yds

Mississippi St

QB AJ Swann19/28 · 231 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT 231pass yds

RB Fluff Bothwell18 carries · 115 rush yds · 2.0 TD · 4 rec 115rush yds

WR/TE Anthony Evans III7 rec · 77 yds · 0.4 TD 77rec yds

WR/TE Marquis Johnson4 rec · 44 yds · 0.0 TD 44rec yds

Line move. The spread opened at MSST +4.5 and is now MSST +2.5, a 2-point move toward Mississippi St.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Mississippi St has lost 5 in a row.

Tale of the tape

AuburnMississippi State

5-4Record4-5

W1StreakL5

7 daysRest7 days

24.3Points per game26.2

26.3Points allowed27.8

12th SECConference14th SEC

−18 Point differentialseason to date −14

212Passing yards / game247

153Rushing yards / game148

42%3rd-down conversion40%

14Takeaways8

0Sacks0

11Turnovers12

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Auburn’s road games with Mississippi St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.