Arkansas vs Vanderbilt Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ARK	0	14	14	3	31
VAN	7	7	7	0	21

Arkansas vs Vanderbilt picks

3 picks · Vanderbilt by 3 · 45 points · 1 of 3 won

Moneyline

VAN ML−238 Lost 93%

Vanderbilt wins the game.

Confidence93%

Model67.2% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge−0.9

SpreadBest pick

VAN +2.5−270 Lost 77%

Vanderbilt wins, or loses by two points or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model71.2% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+1.4

Total

Over 43.5odds up −200 Won 74%

The two teams score 44 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model71.9% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge+3.2

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Arkansas77701421

Vanderbilt010771024

Most likely final scoresARK 21–24 VAN 0.6%ARK 21–28 VAN 0.6%ARK 24–31 VAN 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

ArkansasVanderbilt

Offense

343▲ 438 Total yards = 390390

220▲ 251 Passing yards ▲ 274238

123▲ 187 Rushing yards ▼ 116152

20▲ 24 First downs = 2020

Scoring

3▲ 4 Touchdowns = 33

2▼ 0 Passing touchdowns = 11

1▲ 3 Rushing touchdowns = 22

0▲ 1 Field goals made ▼ 01

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

54▲ 64 Penalty yards ▼ 3559

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 270.5 Proj. 343 72% Won · 438

Passing yards Over 163.5 Proj. 220 72% Won · 251

Rushing yards Over 71.5 Proj. 123 72% Won · 187

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 20 74% Won · 24

Total yards Over 316.5 Proj. 390 72% Won · 390

Passing yards Over 181.5 Proj. 238 72% Won · 274

Rushing yards Over 99.5 Proj. 152 72% Won · 116

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 73% Won · 20

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Arkansas

QB KJ Jackson18/29 · 192 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.7 INT 192pass yds

RB Cam Settles7 carries · 36 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 3 rec 36rush yds

WR/TE Chris Marshall7 rec · 97 yds · 0.5 TD 97rec yds

WR/TE Sutton Smith3 rec · 18 yds · 0.0 TD 18rec yds

Vanderbilt

QB Jared Curtis15/23 · 198 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 198pass yds

RB Sedrick Alexander9 carries · 45 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 1 rec 45rush yds

WR/TE Junior Sherrill5 rec · 92 yds · 0.5 TD 92rec yds

WR/TE Ja'Cory Thomas2 rec · 38 yds · 0.5 TD 38rec yds

Road form. Arkansas is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 30.0 points a game.

Home form. Vanderbilt is 3-1 at home, scoring 28.8 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at VAN −6.5 and is now VAN −5.5, a 1-point move toward Arkansas.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Vanderbilt has lost 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

ArkansasVanderbilt

2-4Record3-3

0-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home

L2StreakL3

7 daysRest7 days

19.3Points per game24.0

27.7Points allowed29.5

−50 Point differentialseason to date −33

228Passing yards / game229

99Rushing yards / game120

41%3rd-down conversion38%

7Takeaways7

0Sacks0

8Turnovers10

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Arkansas’ road games with Vanderbilt’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.