MoneylineBest pick
AUB MLodds down −435
Won 91%
Auburn wins the game.
Confidence91%
Model72.6%
SportsbooksOdds78.9%
Edge−6.3
Arkansas vs Auburn prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 7, 4:29 PM ET
Arkansas vs Auburn picks
3 picks · Auburn by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
ARK +19.5odds down −263
Won 81%
Arkansas wins, or loses by 19 points or fewer.
Confidence81%
Model72.3%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+4.2
Total
Over 43.5odds down −345
Won 74%
The two teams score 44 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model67.0%
SportsbooksOdds69.8%
Edge−2.8
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Arkansas77071421
Auburn77681428
Most likely final scoresARK 21–28 AUB 0.7%ARK 21–24 AUB 0.6%ARK 24–27 AUB 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
ArkansasAuburn
Offense
359▼ 352
Total yards
▼ 363389
232▼ 180
Passing yards
▼ 180224
127▲ 172
Rushing yards
▲ 183165
21▼ 20
First downs
= 2121
Scoring
3▼ 2
Touchdowns
= 33
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
2▼ 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
0▲ 3
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▼ 01
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
61▼ 25
Penalty yards
▼ 5059
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 285.5
Proj. 359
72%
Won · 352
Passing yards
Over 174.5
Proj. 232
72%
Won · 180
Rushing yards
Over 74.5
Proj. 127
72%
Won · 172
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
72%
Won · 20
Total yards
Over 315.5
Proj. 389
72%
Won · 363
Passing yards
Over 167.5
Proj. 224
72%
Won · 180
Rushing yards
Over 112.5
Proj. 165
72%
Won · 183
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 22
74%
Won · 21
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Arkansas
QB
KJ Jackson20/32 · 220 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
220pass yds
RB
Cam Settles9 carries · 38 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec
38rush yds
WR/TE
Chris Marshall6 rec · 103 yds · 0.5 TD
103rec yds
WR/TE
Antonio Jordan4 rec · 57 yds · 0.0 TD
57rec yds
Auburn
QB
Byrum Brown18/28 · 201 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.7 INT
201pass yds
RB
Jeremiah Cobb8 carries · 49 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec
49rush yds
WR/TE
Chas Nimrod4 rec · 58 yds · 0.5 TD
58rec yds
WR/TE
Keshaun Singleton5 rec · 57 yds · 0.3 TD
57rec yds
Road form. Arkansas is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 16.7 points a game.
Home form. Auburn is 3-2 at home, scoring 27.4 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at AUB −11.5 and is now AUB −10.5, a 1-point move toward Arkansas.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
ArkansasAuburn
ArkansasAuburn
3-5Record4-4
1-2 roadRoad / home3-2 home
L1StreakL2
7 daysRest7 days
19.6Points per game24.1
27.6Points allowed26.8
−64
Point differentialseason to date
−21
231Passing yards / game216
105Rushing yards / game150
43%3rd-down conversion44%
10Takeaways12
0Sacks0
12Turnovers11
202Passing yards / game229
117Rushing yards / game156
42%3rd-down conversion46%
3Takeaways6
0Sacks0
2Turnovers6
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Arkansas’ road games with Auburn’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Arkansas
3-5
WLLWL
Wk 9Oct 31vs MIZ
Missouri34Arkansas10
Missouri moneyline −417Arkansas moneyline +310
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ VAN
Arkansas31Vanderbilt21
Arkansas moneyline +175Vanderbilt moneyline −217
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs TENN
Tennessee24Arkansas17
Tennessee moneyline −625Arkansas moneyline +410
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ TA&M
Arkansas7Texas A&M34
Arkansas moneyline +420Texas A&M moneyline −714
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs TLSA
Tulsa6Arkansas34
Tulsa moneyline +205Arkansas moneyline −294
WFINAL
Auburn
4-4
WLWLL
Wk 9Oct 31@ MISS
Auburn15Ole Miss45
Auburn moneyline +325Ole Miss moneyline −476
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs LSU
LSU38Auburn17
LSU moneyline −313Auburn moneyline +230
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ UGA
Auburn27Georgia24
Auburn moneyline +600Georgia moneyline −1667
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ TENN
Auburn14Tennessee24
Auburn moneyline +185Tennessee moneyline −244
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs VAN
Vanderbilt15Auburn21
Vanderbilt moneyline +285Auburn moneyline −435
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSEC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
ARKANSAS
0
Wins
Avg. points24.0 – 33.0
Avg. total57.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
1
AUBURN
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 9Razorback Stadium
Arkansas24Auburn33
Arkansas moneyline +107Auburn moneyline −139
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (ARK)+325up +335
Moneyline (AUB)−455−455
Spread (AUB)−11.5up −10.5
Total50.5up 54.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Auburn beat Arkansas 26–23 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 12:45 PM ET. The moneyline had Arkansas at +335 and Auburn at −455.
Our model predicted a final score of Arkansas 21, Auburn 28. Its picks: Auburn to win (−435), won; Arkansas +19.5 (−263), won; over 43.5 points (−345), won. The best pick was Auburn to win, at 91% confidence.