Moneyline
ARST MLodds up −244
Won 68%
Arkansas St wins the game.
Confidence68%
Model56.3%
SportsbooksOdds70.6%
Edge−14.3
Arkansas State vs Southern Miss prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 6 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 23 |
| USM | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
ARKANSAS ST 56%
Pre-game win chance
44% SOUTHERN MISS
ARST by 3 · 59 points
Updated Oct 17, 10:28 PM ET
Arkansas St vs Southern Miss picks
3 picks · Arkansas St by 3 · 59 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
USM +14.5odds down −294
Won 79%
Southern Miss wins, or loses by 14 points or fewer.
Confidence79%
Model77.6%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge+8.7
Total
Under 70.5−270
Won 74%
The two teams score 70 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model67.4%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge−2.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Arkansas St314771731
Southern Miss770141428
Most likely final scoresARST 31–28 USM 0.7%ARST 28–21 USM 0.6%ARST 24–21 USM 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Arkansas StSouthern Miss
Offense
411▼ 304
Total yards
▼ 289394
231▼ 170
Passing yards
▼ 208230
180▼ 134
Rushing yards
▼ 81164
22▲ 23
First downs
▼ 1421
Scoring
4▼ 2
Touchdowns
▼ 24
2▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
1▲ 3
Field goals made
= 00
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
59▼ 50
Penalty yards
▼ 5361
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 337.5
Proj. 411
72%
Lost · 304
Passing yards
Over 173.5
Proj. 231
72%
Lost · 170
Rushing yards
Over 127.5
Proj. 180
72%
Won · 134
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
71%
Won · 23
Total yards
Over 320.5
Proj. 394
72%
Lost · 289
Passing yards
Over 173.5
Proj. 230
72%
Won · 208
Rushing yards
Over 111.5
Proj. 164
72%
Lost · 81
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
72%
Lost · 14
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Arkansas St
QB
Trey Owens20/31 · 231 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
231pass yds
RB
Solomon Baggett11 carries · 63 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec
63rush yds
WR/TE
Hunter Summers5 rec · 64 yds · 0.7 TD
64rec yds
WR/TE
Chauncy Cobb5 rec · 49 yds · 0.2 TD
49rec yds
Southern Miss
QB
Landry Lyddy11/16 · 140 pass yds · 1.3 TD · 0.2 INT
140pass yds
RB
Steven Robinson17 carries · 79 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 1 rec
79rush yds
WR/TE
Mario Sanders II5 rec · 69 yds · 1.1 TD
69rec yds
WR/TE
Kaden Saunders3 rec · 39 yds · 0.0 TD
39rec yds
Road form. Arkansas St is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 15.0 points a game.
Home form. Southern Miss is 1-1 at home, scoring 34.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at USM +7.5 and is now USM +5.5, a 2-point move toward Southern Miss.
Rest. Arkansas St comes in on 9 days’ rest, Southern Miss on 11.
Division game. Two West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Arkansas StateSouthern Miss
Arkansas StateSouthern Miss
2-4Record1-4
0-3 roadRoad / home1-1 home
L2StreakL4
9 daysRest11 days
28.2Points per game26.4
28.8Points allowed34.6
−4
Point differentialseason to date
−41
244Passing yards / game271
133Rushing yards / game144
51%3rd-down conversion32%
9Takeaways7
0Sacks0
8Turnovers8
221Passing yards / game263
108Rushing yards / game210
43%3rd-down conversion37%
4Takeaways5
0Sacks0
4Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Arkansas St’s road games with Southern Miss’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Arkansas St
2-4
WLWLL
Wk 6Oct 8vs USA
South Alabama56Arkansas St49
South Alabama: no odds on recordArkansas St: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ ULL
Arkansas St20Louisiana23
Arkansas St moneyline +170Louisiana moneyline −238
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs KENN
Kennesaw St14Arkansas St17
Kennesaw St moneyline +187Arkansas St moneyline −263
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ TCU
Arkansas St7TCU31
Arkansas St moneyline +600TCU moneyline −1429
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs WG
West Georgia7Arkansas St52
West Georgia moneyline +1300Arkansas St moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Southern Miss
1-4
WLLLL
Wk 6Oct 6@ TROY
Southern Miss34Troy55
Southern Miss moneyline +285Troy moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ TULN
Southern Miss21Tulane24
Southern Miss moneyline +580Tulane moneyline −1429
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs CONN
UConn48Southern Miss20
UConn moneyline −167Southern Miss moneyline +130
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ AUB
Southern Miss8Auburn43
Southern Miss moneyline +1400Auburn moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 5vs AS
Alcorn St3Southern Miss49
Alcorn St moneyline +620Southern Miss moneyline −1667
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
ARKANSAS ST
0
Wins
Avg. points21.0 – 27.0
Avg. total48.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
1
SOUTHERN MISS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 11Arkansas St home
Southern Miss27Arkansas St21
Southern Miss moneyline −250Arkansas St moneyline +180
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (ARST)−263up −233
Moneyline (USM)+205down +185
Spread (USM)+7.5down +5.5
Total57.5up 61.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Arkansas State beat Southern Miss 23–13 in college football Week 7, on Saturday, October 17 at 7:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Arkansas State at −233 and Southern Miss at +185.
Our model predicted a final score of Arkansas St 31, Southern Miss 28. Its picks: Arkansas State to win (−244), won; Southern Miss +14.5 (−294), won; under 70.5 points (−270), won. The best pick was Southern Miss +14.5, at 79% confidence.