Moneyline
ALA MLodds up −909
95%
Alabama wins the game.
Confidence95%
Model82.0%
SportsbooksOdds91.3%
Edge−9.3
Alabama vs Vanderbilt prediction, picks and odds
SpreadALA −16.5
Total50.5 points
Kickoff in2d 21h
Updated 3:17 PM ET
Alabama vs Vanderbilt picks
3 picks · Alabama by 7 · 49 pointsSpread
VAN +19.5odds down −161
75%
Vanderbilt wins, or loses by 19 points or fewer.
Confidence75%
Model60.5%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge+10.5
TotalBest pick
Under 54.5odds down −185
69%
The two teams score 54 or fewer points between them.
Confidence69%
Model54.7%
SportsbooksOdds50.4%
Edge+4.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Alabama014681428
Vanderbilt07014721
Most likely final scoresALA 28–21 VAN 0.5%ALA 31–14 VAN 0.5%ALA 34–17 VAN 0.4%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
AlabamaVanderbilt
Offense
368
Total yards
339
242
Passing yards
233
126
Rushing yards
106
19
First downs
19
Scoring
4
Touchdowns
2
2
Passing touchdowns
1
2
Rushing touchdowns
1
0
Field goals made
2
Ball security
1
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
50
Penalty yards
56
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 294.5
Proj. 368
72%
Passing yards
Over 184.5
Proj. 242
72%
Rushing yards
Over 73.5
Proj. 126
72%
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
72%
Total yards
Over 266.5
Proj. 339
72%
Passing yards
Over 176.5
Proj. 233
72%
Rushing yards
Over 53.5
Proj. 106
72%
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
70%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Alabama
QB
Keelon Russell20/29 · 239 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
239pass yds
RB
Trae'shawn Brown9 carries · 45 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec
45rush yds
WR/TE
Rico Scott4 rec · 62 yds · 0.3 TD
62rec yds
WR/TE
Marshall Pritchett3 rec · 32 yds · 0.3 TD
32rec yds
Vanderbilt
QB
Jared Curtis20/31 · 230 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.9 INT
230pass yds
RB
Sedrick Alexander10 carries · 32 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec
32rush yds
WR/TE
Junior Sherrill7 rec · 83 yds · 0.4 TD
83rec yds
WR/TE
Ja'Cory Thomas3 rec · 38 yds · 0.4 TD
38rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at VAN +19.5 and is now VAN +16.5, a 3-point move toward Vanderbilt.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
AlabamaVanderbilt
AlabamaVanderbilt
7-2Record4-5
W2StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
37.4Points per game23.0
20.3Points allowed29.4
3rd SECConference15th SEC
+154
Point differentialseason to date
−58
254Passing yards / game229
144Rushing yards / game112
42%3rd-down conversion38%
21Takeaways8
0Sacks0
12Turnovers15
211Passing yards / game248
117Rushing yards / game128
36%3rd-down conversion42%
11Takeaways6
0Sacks0
9Turnovers10
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Alabama’s road games with Vanderbilt’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Alabama
7-2
WLLWW
Wk 10Nov 7@ LSU
Alabama31LSU13
Alabama moneyline +195LSU moneyline −250
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs TA&M
Texas A&M20Alabama31
Texas A&M moneyline +450Alabama moneyline −769
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ TENN
Alabama10Tennessee26
Alabama moneyline −313Tennessee moneyline +245
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs UGA
Georgia20Alabama17
Georgia moneyline +100Alabama moneyline −137
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ MSST
Alabama56Mississippi St23
Alabama moneyline −222Mississippi St moneyline +170
WFINAL
Vanderbilt
4-5
LLLLW
Wk 10Nov 7@ MSST
Vanderbilt25Mississippi St23
Vanderbilt moneyline +116Mississippi St moneyline −143
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ UK
Vanderbilt17Kentucky34
Vanderbilt moneyline +360Kentucky moneyline −500
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs ARK
Arkansas31Vanderbilt21
Arkansas moneyline +175Vanderbilt moneyline −217
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs MISS
Ole Miss52Vanderbilt17
Ole Miss moneyline −385Vanderbilt moneyline +235
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ UGA
Vanderbilt14Georgia38
Vanderbilt moneyline +1300Georgia moneyline −5000
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameSEC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
ALABAMA
1
Wins
Avg. points30.0 – 14.0
Avg. total44.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
VANDERBILT
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 6Bryant-Denny Stadium
Alabama30Vanderbilt14
Alabama moneyline +340Vanderbilt moneyline −476
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (ALA)−769−769
Moneyline (VAN)+480+480
Spread (VAN)+19.5down +16.5
Total54.5down 50.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Alabama visits Vanderbilt in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 12:45 PM ET. Alabama comes in at 7-2 and Vanderbilt at 4-5. The moneyline has Alabama at −769 and Vanderbilt at +480.
Our model predicts a final score of Alabama 28, Vanderbilt 21. Its picks: Alabama to win (−909); Vanderbilt +19.5 (−161); under 54.5 points (−185). The best pick is under 54.5 points, at 69% confidence.