Alabama vs Tennessee Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ALA	0	10	0	0	10
TENN	9	3	7	7	26

Alabama vs Tennessee picks

3 picks · Alabama by 7 · 55 points · 1 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

ALA MLodds up −333 Lost 86%

Alabama wins the game.

Confidence86%

Model68.6% SportsbooksOdds76.1% Edge−7.5

Spread

TENN +17.5odds down −345 Won 81%

Tennessee wins, or loses by 17 points or fewer.

Confidence81%

Model71.8% SportsbooksOdds70.5% Edge+1.3

Total

Over 45odds up −204 Lost 74%

The two teams score 46 or more points between them (exactly 45 is a push).

Confidence74%

Model75.8% SportsbooksOdds69.7% Edge+6.1

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Alabama7100141731

Tennessee017701724

Most likely final scoresALA 31–24 TENN 0.6%ALA 35–28 TENN 0.6%ALA 28–21 TENN 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

AlabamaTennessee

Offense

389▼ 201 Total yards ▼ 350363

229▼ 147 Passing yards ▼ 197213

160▼ 54 Rushing yards ▲ 153150

20▼ 12 First downs ▲ 2019

Scoring

4▼ 1 Touchdowns ▼ 23

2▼ 0 Passing touchdowns ▼ 01

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns = 22

1= 1 Field goals made ▲ 41

Ball security

1▲ 4 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▲ 2 Interceptions thrown = 11

1▲ 2 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

56▲ 68 Penalty yards ▲ 6552

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 315.5 Proj. 389 72% Lost · 201

Passing yards Over 172.5 Proj. 229 72% Lost · 147

Rushing yards Over 107.5 Proj. 160 72% Lost · 54

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 72% Lost · 12

Total yards Over 289.5 Proj. 363 72% Won · 350

Passing yards Over 155.5 Proj. 213 72% Won · 197

Rushing yards Over 97.5 Proj. 150 72% Won · 153

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 20 74% Won · 20

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Alabama

QB Keelon Russell19/29 · 226 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 226pass yds

RB Trae'shawn Brown8 carries · 44 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec 44rush yds

WR/TE Ryan Williams4 rec · 59 yds · 0.7 TD 59rec yds

WR/TE Rico Scott3 rec · 32 yds · 0.5 TD 32rec yds

Tennessee

QB George MacIntyre8/13 · 106 pass yds · 0.3 TD · 0.6 INT 106pass yds

RB DeSean Bishop16 carries · 74 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 2 rec 74rush yds

WR/TE Mike Matthews4 rec · 75 yds · 0.3 TD 75rec yds

WR/TE Braylon Staley4 rec · 37 yds · 0.2 TD 37rec yds

Road form. Alabama is 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 30.5 points a game.

Home form. Tennessee is 3-1 at home, scoring 34.8 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at TENN +5.5 and is now TENN +7.5, a 2-point move toward Alabama.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

AlabamaTennessee

5-1Record5-1

2-0 roadRoad / home3-1 home

L1StreakW2

7 daysRest7 days

44.2Points per game34.7

20.7Points allowed15.5

+141 Point differentialseason to date +115

270Passing yards / game187

182Rushing yards / game228

49%3rd-down conversion36%

14Takeaways9

0Sacks0

7Turnovers8

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Alabama’s road games with Tennessee’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.