Alabama vs LSU Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ALA	3	7	7	14	31
LSU	3	0	10	0	13

Alabama vs LSU picks

3 picks · LSU by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

LSU MLodds down −250 Lost 53%

LSU wins the game.

Confidence53%

Model50.8% SportsbooksOdds67.8% Edge−17.0

SpreadBest pick

ALA +12.5odds up −238 Won 79%

Alabama wins, or loses by 12 points or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model78.6% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge+9.4

Total

Under 60.5odds up −222 Won 74%

The two teams score 60 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model71.3% SportsbooksOdds68.6% Edge+2.7

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Alabama77701421

LSU014771428

Most likely final scoresALA 21–28 LSU 0.6%ALA 21–24 LSU 0.5%ALA 28–31 LSU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

AlabamaLSU

Offense

339▼ 285 Total yards ▲ 457374

219▼ 206 Passing yards ▲ 380241

120▼ 79 Rushing yards ▼ 77133

18▼ 13 First downs ▲ 2720

Scoring

3▼ 2 Touchdowns ▼ 03

1= 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 02

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 01

0▲ 2 Field goals made ▲ 32

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown = 11

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

51▼ 44 Penalty yards ▼ 4053

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 265.5 Proj. 339 72% Won · 285

Passing yards Over 161.5 Proj. 219 72% Won · 206

Rushing yards Over 67.5 Proj. 120 72% Won · 79

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 72% Lost · 13

Total yards Over 300.5 Proj. 374 72% Won · 457

Passing yards Over 183.5 Proj. 241 72% Won · 380

Rushing yards Over 80.5 Proj. 133 72% Lost · 77

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 73% Won · 27

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Alabama

QB Keelon Russell19/30 · 216 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT 216pass yds

RB Trae'shawn Brown9 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec 41rush yds

WR/TE Rico Scott4 rec · 49 yds · 0.1 TD 49rec yds

WR/TE Marshall Pritchett3 rec · 28 yds · 0.1 TD 28rec yds

LSU

QB Sam Leavitt19/28 · 210 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.8 INT 210pass yds

RB Dilin Jones16 carries · 59 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 4 rec 59rush yds

WR/TE Jackson Harris4 rec · 69 yds · 0.9 TD 69rec yds

WR/TE Winston Watkins3 rec · 44 yds · 0.1 TD 44rec yds

Road form. Alabama is 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 15.0 points a game.

Home form. LSU is 5-0 at home, scoring 45.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at LSU −5.5 and is now LSU −6.5, a 1-point move toward LSU.

Rest. Both teams come in on 14 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

AlabamaLSU

6-2Record6-2

2-1 roadRoad / home5-0 home

W1StreakW2

14 daysRest14 days

38.3Points per game40.1

21.3Points allowed16.0

+136 Point differentialseason to date +193

260Passing yards / game318

152Rushing yards / game192

43%3rd-down conversion52%

19Takeaways9

0Sacks0

12Turnovers11

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Alabama’s road games with LSU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.