Moneyline
SEA ML−167
Lost 82%
The Seahawks win the game.
Confidence82%
Model66.3%
SportsbooksOdds60.3%
Edge+6.0
San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 11, 8:39 PM ET
49ers vs Seahawks picks
3 picks · Seahawks by 3 · 51 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
SEA +2.5odds up −217
Lost 85%
The Seahawks win, or lose by two points or fewer.
Confidence85%
Model71.0%
SportsbooksOdds67.0%
Edge+4.0
TotalBest pick
Over 39.5odds down −286
Won 84%
The two teams score 40 or more points between them.
Confidence84%
Model67.0%
SportsbooksOdds70.0%
Edge−3.0
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
49ers014371424
Seahawks0140131427
Most likely final scoresSF 24–27 SEA 0.7%SF 20–23 SEA 0.7%SF 27–30 SEA 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
49ersSeahawks
Offense
306▼ 269
Total yards
▼ 251343
196▼ 175
Passing yards
▼ 162225
110▼ 94
Rushing yards
▼ 89118
19▼ 14
First downs
▼ 1420
Scoring
3▲ 4
Touchdowns
▼ 23
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
1= 1
Field goals made
▲ 52
Ball security
1▲ 3
Turnovers
▲ 41
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▲ 21
0▲ 2
Fumbles lost
▲ 20
2▲ 3
Sacks allowed
▲ 52
50▲ 70
Penalty yards
▼ 4652
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 259.5
Proj. 306
72%
Won · 269
Passing yards
Over 154.5
Proj. 196
72%
Won · 175
Rushing yards
Over 81.5
Proj. 110
72%
Won · 94
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
74%
Lost · 14
Total yards
Over 296.5
Proj. 343
72%
Lost · 251
Passing yards
Over 184.5
Proj. 226
72%
Lost · 162
Rushing yards
Over 89.5
Proj. 118
72%
Lost · 89
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
73%
Lost · 14
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
49ers
QB
Brock Purdy20/31 · 196 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
196pass yds
RB
Christian McCaffrey12 carries · 43 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 4 rec
43rush yds
WR/TE
George Kittle4 rec · 48 yds · 0.7 TD
48rec yds
WR/TE
Mike Evans4 rec · 42 yds · 0.4 TD
42rec yds
Seahawks
QB
Sam Darnold16/24 · 173 pass yds · 1.7 TD · 0.6 INT
173pass yds
RB
Emanuel Wilson13 carries · 51 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
51rush yds
WR/TE
Jaxon SmithNjigba9 rec · 114 yds · 1.2 TD
114rec yds
WR/TE
George Holani2 rec · 12 yds · 0.0 TD
12rec yds
Road form. The 49ers are 1-0 on the road this season, winning by 20.0 points a game.
Home form. The Seahawks are 2-0 at home, scoring 21.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at SEA −3.5 and is now SEA −2.5, a 1-point move toward the 49ers.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two NFC West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
San Francisco 49ersSeattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ersSeattle Seahawks
4-0Record3-1
1-0 roadRoad / home2-0 home
W4StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
30.5Points per game26.3
16.0Points allowed18.3
+58
Point differentialseason to date
+32
6.8Yards per play5.9
252Passing yards / game237
137Rushing yards / game110
58%3rd-down conversion31%
85%Red-zone touchdowns56%
3Takeaways8
6Sacks11
2Turnovers5
5.9Yards per play5.4
205Passing yards / game168
174Rushing yards / game118
58%3rd-down conversion22%
67%Red-zone touchdowns33%
2Takeaways7
0Sacks7
1Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the 49ers’ road games with the Seahawks’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
49ers
4-0
LWWWW
Wk 4Oct 4vs DEN
Broncos1449ers24
Broncos moneyline +13049ers moneyline −175
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs ARI
Cardinals3049ers36
Cardinals moneyline +30049ers moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs MIA
Dolphins1349ers35
Dolphins moneyline +56049ers moneyline −909
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 10@ LAR
49ers27Rams7
49ers moneyline +165Rams moneyline −204
WFINAL
DivisionalJan 17, 2026@ SEA
49ers6Seahawks41
49ers moneyline +250Seahawks moneyline −323
LFINAL
Seahawks
3-1
WWWLW
Wk 4Oct 4vs LAC
Chargers23Seahawks30
Chargers moneyline +265Seahawks moneyline −357
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ WAS
Seahawks31Commanders33
Seahawks moneyline −400Commanders moneyline +310
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ ARI
Seahawks31Cardinals7
Seahawks moneyline −213Cardinals moneyline +170
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 9vs NE
Patriots10Seahawks13
Patriots moneyline +147Seahawks moneyline −182
WFINAL
Super BowlFeb 8, 2026@ NE
Seahawks29Patriots13
Seahawks moneyline −233Patriots moneyline +190
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameHead-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
49ERS
2
Wins
Avg. points15.8 – 22.2
Avg. total38.0 pts
Over closing total2 of 5
3
SEAHAWKS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · DivisionalLumen Field
49ers6Seahawks41
49ers moneyline +250Seahawks moneyline −323
2025 · Wk 18Levi's Stadium
Seahawks1349ers3
Seahawks moneyline −16149ers moneyline +122
2025 · Wk 1Lumen Field
49ers17Seahawks13
49ers moneyline −135Seahawks moneyline +112
2024 · Wk 11Levi's Stadium
Seahawks2049ers17
Seahawks moneyline +20049ers moneyline −263
2024 · Wk 6Lumen Field
49ers36Seahawks24
49ers moneyline −200Seahawks moneyline +155
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (SF)+134down +130
Moneyline (SEA)−164up −159
Spread (SEA)−3.5up −2.5
Total46up 46.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The San Francisco 49ers beat the Seattle Seahawks 32–29 in NFL Week 5 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 11 at 4:25 PM ET, at Lumen Field, Seattle. The moneyline had the 49ers at +130 and the Seahawks at −159.
Our model predicted a final score of 49ers 24, Seahawks 27. Its picks: the Seahawks to win (−167), lost; the Seahawks +2.5 (−217), lost; over 39.5 points (−286), won. The best pick was over 39.5 points, at 84% confidence.