Moneyline
SF MLodds up −147
Lost 68%
The 49ers win the game.
Confidence68%
Model59.2%
SportsbooksOdds63.0%
Edge−3.8
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 25, 4:19 PM ET
49ers vs Falcons picks
3 picks · 49ers by 3 · 43 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
ATL +5.5odds down −200
Won 69%
The Falcons win, or lose by five points or fewer.
Confidence69%
Model59.8%
SportsbooksOdds57.0%
Edge+2.8
TotalBest pick
Under 56.5odds up −244
Won 77%
The two teams score 56 or fewer points between them.
Confidence77%
Model71.0%
SportsbooksOdds69.0%
Edge+2.0
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
49ers310731323
Falcons010731020
Most likely final scoresSF 23–20 ATL 0.9%SF 27–24 ATL 0.9%SF 20–17 ATL 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
49ersFalcons
Offense
344▲ 400
Total yards
▼ 295321
235▲ 277
Passing yards
▲ 213206
109▲ 123
Rushing yards
▼ 82115
20▲ 26
First downs
▲ 2118
Scoring
3= 3
Touchdowns
▲ 32
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
▲ 31
1▲ 2
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Field goals made
▲ 32
Ball security
1▲ 4
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▲ 2
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
2= 2
Sacks allowed
▼ 02
53▲ 55
Penalty yards
▼ 3952
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 297.5
Proj. 344
72%
Won · 400
Passing yards
Over 193.5
Proj. 235
72%
Won · 277
Rushing yards
Over 80.5
Proj. 109
72%
Won · 123
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
75%
Won · 26
Total yards
Over 274.5
Proj. 321
72%
Won · 295
Passing yards
Over 164.5
Proj. 206
72%
Won · 213
Rushing yards
Over 86.5
Proj. 115
72%
Lost · 82
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
72%
Won · 21
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
49ers
QB
Brock Purdy23/34 · 235 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT
235pass yds
RB
Christian McCaffrey12 carries · 50 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 5 rec
50rush yds
WR/TE
Mike Evans5 rec · 69 yds · 0.4 TD
69rec yds
WR/TE
George Kittle5 rec · 55 yds · 0.7 TD
55rec yds
Falcons
QB
Michael Penix Jr.20/31 · 206 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.4 INT
206pass yds
RB
Bijan Robinson17 carries · 82 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 4 rec
82rush yds
WR/TE
Drake London6 rec · 97 yds · 0.0 TD
97rec yds
WR/TE
Kyle Pitts3 rec · 30 yds · 0.4 TD
30rec yds
Road form. The 49ers are 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 11.5 points a game.
Home form. The Falcons are 0-3 at home, scoring 16.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at ATL +4.5 and is now ATL +2.5, a 2-point move toward the Falcons.
Rest. The 49ers come in on 6 days’ rest, the Falcons on 7.
Streak. The 49ers have won 6 in a row.
Tale of the tape
San Francisco 49ersAtlanta Falcons
San Francisco 49ersAtlanta Falcons
6-0Record2-4
2-0 roadRoad / home0-3 home
W6StreakL2
6 daysRest7 days
29.5Points per game23.7
18.3Points allowed25.5
+67
Point differentialseason to date
−11
6.4Yards per play5.7
239Passing yards / game195
128Rushing yards / game150
52%3rd-down conversion39%
85%Red-zone touchdowns75%
7Takeaways5
15Sacks15
6Turnovers12
5.4Yards per play5.0
190Passing yards / game193
134Rushing yards / game110
46%3rd-down conversion38%
83%Red-zone touchdowns67%
6Takeaways2
5Sacks10
4Turnovers9
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the 49ers’ road games with the Falcons’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
49ers
6-0
WWWWW
Wk 6Oct 19vs WAS
Commanders1749ers23
Commanders moneyline +31049ers moneyline −385
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ SEA
49ers32Seahawks29
49ers moneyline +130Seahawks moneyline −159
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs DEN
Broncos1449ers24
Broncos moneyline +13049ers moneyline −175
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs ARI
Cardinals3049ers36
Cardinals moneyline +30049ers moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs MIA
Dolphins1349ers35
Dolphins moneyline +56049ers moneyline −909
WFINAL
Falcons
2-4
LWWLL
Wk 6Oct 18vs CHI
Bears31Falcons23
Bears moneyline −118Falcons moneyline −103
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs BAL
Ravens30Falcons23
Ravens moneyline +145Falcons moneyline −175
LF/OT
Wk 4Oct 5@ NO
Falcons45Saints24
Falcons moneyline −102Saints moneyline −120
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 24@ GB
Falcons35Packers14
Falcons moneyline +205Packers moneyline −263
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs CAR
Panthers34Falcons3
Panthers moneyline −147Falcons moneyline +118
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC West
NFC South
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
Last two meetings · regular season and playoffs
49ERS
1
Wins
Avg. points17.0 – 19.0
Avg. total36.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 2
1
FALCONS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 7Levi's Stadium
Falcons1049ers20
Falcons moneyline −11449ers moneyline −111
2022 · Wk 6Mercedes-Benz Stadium
49ers14Falcons28
49ers moneyline −189Falcons moneyline +155
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (SF)−143−143
Moneyline (ATL)+121+121
Spread (ATL)+4.5down +2.5
Total49.5up 50
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Atlanta Falcons beat the San Francisco 49ers 29–20 in NFL Week 7 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM ET, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. The moneyline had the 49ers at −143 and the Falcons at +121.
Our model predicted a final score of 49ers 23, Falcons 20. Its picks: the 49ers to win (−147), lost; the Falcons +5.5 (−200), won; under 56.5 points (−244), won. The best pick was under 56.5 points, at 77% confidence.