Wisconsin vs UCLA Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
WIS	0	0	7	0	7
UCLA	3	7	0	7	17

Wisconsin vs UCLA picks

3 picks · UCLA by 3 · 45 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

UCLA MLodds up −127 Won 87%

UCLA wins the game.

Confidence87%

Model64.2% SportsbooksOdds55.1% Edge+9.1

SpreadBest pick

UCLA +5.5odds down −303 Won 79%

UCLA wins, or loses by five points or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model77.0% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+7.2

Total

Over 36.5odds up −227 Lost 74%

The two teams score 37 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model74.3% SportsbooksOdds70.8% Edge+3.5

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Wisconsin014701421

UCLA77371424

Most likely final scoresWIS 21–24 UCLA 0.7%WIS 21–28 UCLA 0.6%WIS 14–28 UCLA 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

WisconsinUCLA

Offense

315▼ 214 Total yards ▲ 384357

196▼ 66 Passing yards ▲ 264189

119▲ 148 Rushing yards ▼ 120168

17▼ 13 First downs ▲ 2019

Scoring

3▼ 1 Touchdowns ▼ 23

2▼ 0 Passing touchdowns ▼ 01

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns = 22

0= 0 Field goals made = 11

Ball security

2▼ 0 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

49▲ 108 Penalty yards ▲ 7850

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 242.5 Proj. 315 72% Lost · 214

Passing yards Over 138.5 Proj. 196 72% Lost · 66

Rushing yards Over 67.5 Proj. 120 72% Won · 148

First downs Over 12.5 Proj. 17 74% Won · 13

Total yards Over 283.5 Proj. 357 72% Won · 384

Passing yards Over 131.5 Proj. 188 72% Won · 264

Rushing yards Over 115.5 Proj. 168 72% Won · 120

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 71% Won · 20

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Wisconsin

QB Colton Joseph16/29 · 196 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 1.0 INT 196pass yds

RB Darrion Dupree9 carries · 30 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 30rush yds

WR/TE Tyrell Henry5 rec · 59 yds · 0.2 TD 59rec yds

WR/TE Jacob Harris3 rec · 41 yds · 0.6 TD 41rec yds

UCLA

QB Nico Iamaleava16/26 · 180 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.7 INT 180pass yds

RB Wayne Knight13 carries · 73 rush yds · 1.1 TD · 3 rec 73rush yds

WR/TE Semaj Morgan4 rec · 42 yds · 0.4 TD 42rec yds

WR/TE Brayden Loftin2 rec · 18 yds · 0.0 TD 18rec yds

Road form. Wisconsin is 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 12.0 points a game.

Home form. UCLA is 2-0 at home, scoring 40.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at UCLA −3.5 and is now UCLA −1.5, a 2-point move toward Wisconsin.

Rest. Wisconsin comes in on 14 days’ rest, UCLA on 7.

Streak. Wisconsin has won 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

WisconsinUCLA

4-1Record5-0

1-1 roadRoad / home2-0 home

W4StreakW5

14 daysRest7 days

31.6Points per game39.2

16.6Points allowed18.0

+75 Point differentialseason to date +106

226Passing yards / game205

153Rushing yards / game253

44%3rd-down conversion44%

4Takeaways19

0Sacks0

6Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Wisconsin’s road games with UCLA’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.