Wisconsin vs Iowa Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
WIS	0	0	0	0	0
IOWA	10	10	10	0	30

Wisconsin vs Iowa picks

3 picks · Iowa by 7 · 35 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

IOWA MLodds up −139 Won 94%

Iowa wins the game.

Confidence94%

Model68.8% SportsbooksOdds63.0% Edge+5.8

SpreadBest pick

IOWA +3.5odds up −213 Won 79%

Iowa wins, or loses by three points or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model77.3% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+8.0

Total

Over 30.5odds up −213 Lost 74%

The two teams score 31 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model71.2% SportsbooksOdds66.3% Edge+4.9

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Wisconsin0707714

Iowa07014721

Most likely final scoresWIS 14–21 IOWA 0.8%WIS 7–35 IOWA 0.8%WIS 14–17 IOWA 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

WisconsinIowa

Offense

278▼ 235 Total yards ▲ 362346

172▲ 183 Passing yards ▲ 222209

106▼ 52 Rushing yards ▲ 140137

15▼ 9 First downs = 2020

Scoring

2▼ 0 Touchdowns ▲ 32

1▼ 0 Passing touchdowns ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns = 11

0= 0 Field goals made ▲ 32

Ball security

1▲ 3 Turnovers = 11

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▲ 2 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

52▲ 70 Penalty yards ▼ 1046

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 205.5 Proj. 278 72% Won · 235

Passing yards Over 114.5 Proj. 172 72% Won · 183

Rushing yards Over 54.5 Proj. 107 72% Lost · 52

First downs Over 11.5 Proj. 15 73% Lost · 9

Total yards Over 272.5 Proj. 346 72% Won · 362

Passing yards Over 152.5 Proj. 209 72% Won · 222

Rushing yards Over 84.5 Proj. 137 72% Won · 140

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 20 74% Won · 20

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Wisconsin

QB Colton Joseph15/26 · 172 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 172pass yds

RB Darrion Dupree9 carries · 25 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 25rush yds

WR/TE Tyrell Henry4 rec · 50 yds · 0.1 TD 50rec yds

WR/TE Jacob Harris3 rec · 43 yds · 0.3 TD 43rec yds

Iowa

QB Hank Brown15/25 · 170 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT 170pass yds

RB Kamari Moulton18 carries · 90 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec 90rush yds

WR/TE Tony Diaz4 rec · 51 yds · 0.0 TD 51rec yds

WR/TE DJ Vonnahme4 rec · 43 yds · 0.3 TD 43rec yds

Road form. Wisconsin is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 11.3 points a game.

Home form. Iowa is 3-1 at home, scoring 31.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at IOWA −4.5 and is now IOWA −2.5, a 2-point move toward Wisconsin.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

WisconsinIowa

5-2Record5-2

1-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home

W1StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

27.0Points per game28.0

15.3Points allowed14.3

+82 Point differentialseason to date +96

179Passing yards / game208

151Rushing yards / game179

43%3rd-down conversion37%

8Takeaways6

0Sacks0

6Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Wisconsin’s road games with Iowa’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.