MoneylineBest pick
WKU MLodds up −116
Won 57%
Western KY wins the game.
Confidence57%
Model53.3%
SportsbooksOdds53.7%
Edge−0.4
Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| SHSU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
WESTERN KY 53%
Pre-game win chance
47% SAM HOUSTON
WKU by 1 · 53 points
Updated Oct 15, 12:39 AM ET
Western KY vs Sam Houston picks
3 picks · Western KY by 1 · 53 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
SHSU +2.5odds down −128
Lost 53%
Sam Houston wins, or loses by two points or fewer.
Confidence53%
Model51.2%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge+1.2
Total
Over 50.5odds down −156
Lost 73%
The two teams score 51 or more points between them.
Confidence73%
Model61.4%
SportsbooksOdds51.1%
Edge+10.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Western KY213032427
Sam Houston107631726
Most likely final scoresWKU 27–26 SHSU 0.3%WKU 28–26 SHSU 0.2%WKU 36–34 SHSU 0.2%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Western KYSam Houston
Offense
399▼ 276
Total yards
▼ 177391
214▼ 132
Passing yards
▼ 112233
185▼ 144
Rushing yards
▼ 65158
20▼ 17
First downs
▼ 1219
Scoring
3▼ 1
Touchdowns
▼ 03
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 02
2▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▲ 3
Field goals made
= 11
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 00
0
Sacks allowed
0
55▼ 33
Penalty yards
▲ 10052
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 326.5
Proj. 399
72%
Lost · 276
Passing yards
Over 157.5
Proj. 214
72%
Lost · 132
Rushing yards
Over 132.5
Proj. 185
72%
Won · 144
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
72%
Won · 17
Total yards
Over 317.5
Proj. 391
72%
Lost · 177
Passing yards
Over 176.5
Proj. 233
72%
Lost · 112
Rushing yards
Over 105.5
Proj. 158
72%
Lost · 65
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 19
74%
Lost · 12
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Western KY
QB
Brock Glenn9/17 · 96 pass yds · 0.5 TD · 0.4 INT
96pass yds
RB
Ajay Allen12 carries · 71 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 2 rec
71rush yds
WR/TE
Jonathan Stafford Jr.5 rec · 52 yds · 0.1 TD
52rec yds
WR/TE
Lofton Howard2 rec · 20 yds · 0.1 TD
20rec yds
Sam Houston
QB
Landyn Locke20/33 · 222 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.5 INT
222pass yds
RB
Alton McCaskill11 carries · 63 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
63rush yds
WR/TE
Grady O'Neill4 rec · 43 yds · 0.3 TD
43rec yds
WR/TE
Landan Brown3 rec · 13 yds · 0.0 TD
13rec yds
Road form. Western KY is 0-4 on the road this season, losing by 36.0 points a game.
Home form. Sam Houston is 1-1 at home, scoring 38.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at SHSU +1.5 and is now SHSU −0.5, a 2-point move toward Sam Houston.
Rest. Both teams come in on 6 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
Western KentuckySam Houston
Western KentuckySam Houston
2-4Record1-4
0-4 roadRoad / home1-1 home
W1StreakL2
6 daysRest6 days
22.2Points per game22.8
35.2Points allowed26.2
−78
Point differentialseason to date
−17
233Passing yards / game274
133Rushing yards / game101
41%3rd-down conversion41%
5Takeaways7
0Sacks0
9Turnovers5
188Passing yards / game351
96Rushing yards / game144
36%3rd-down conversion50%
4Takeaways3
0Sacks0
8Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Western KY’s road games with Sam Houston’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Western KY
2-4
LLWLW
Wk 6Oct 8vs MOST
Missouri St13Western KY34
Missouri St: no odds on recordWestern KY: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 1@ NMSU
Western KY13New Mexico St34
Western KY moneyline +102New Mexico St moneyline −132
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs MERC
Mercyhurst7Western KY52
Mercyhurst moneyline +1600Western KY moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ IU
Western KY0Indiana38
Western KY moneyline +1600Indiana moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ UGA
Western KY20Georgia70
Western KY moneyline +1600Georgia moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Sam Houston
1-4
LLWLL
Wk 6Oct 8@ LIB
Sam Houston3Liberty35
Sam Houston: no odds on recordLiberty: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ TTU
Sam Houston14Texas Tech49
Sam Houston moneyline +1500Texas Tech moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs NICH
Nicholls0Sam Houston59
Nicholls: no odds on recordSam Houston: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs TLSA
Tulsa23Sam Houston17
Tulsa moneyline −556Sam Houston moneyline +370
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 5@ TROY
Sam Houston21Troy24
Sam Houston moneyline +500Troy moneyline −1000
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
WESTERN KY
1
Wins
Avg. points41.0 – 24.0
Avg. total65.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
SAM HOUSTON
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 1Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Western KY41Sam Houston24
Western KY moneyline +280Sam Houston moneyline −417
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (WKU)−120−120
Moneyline (SHSU)−102−102
Spread (SHSU)+1.5down −0.5
Total50.5up 53.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston 16–3 in college football Week 7, on Wednesday, October 14 at 8:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Western Kentucky at −120 and Sam Houston at −102.
Our model predicted a final score of Western KY 27, Sam Houston 26. Its picks: Western Kentucky to win (−116), won; Sam Houston +2.5 (−128), lost; over 50.5 points (−156), lost. The best pick was Western Kentucky to win, at 57% confidence.