Moneyline
WKU MLodds down −137
Lost 55%
Western KY wins the game.
Confidence55%
Model51.6%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge+1.6
Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | 0 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 42 |
| MTSU | 14 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 51 |
WESTERN KY 52%
Pre-game win chance
48% MTSU
WKU by 3 · 45 points
Updated Nov 7, 7:41 PM ET
Western KY vs MTSU picks
3 picks · Western KY by 3 · 45 points · 1 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
MTSU +7.5odds up −263
Won 77%
MTSU wins, or loses by seven points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model70.1%
SportsbooksOdds69.8%
Edge+0.3
Total
Under 60.5odds up −227
Lost 74%
The two teams score 60 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model68.5%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+0.4
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Western KY77731424
MTSU014071421
Most likely final scoresWKU 24–21 MTSU 0.6%WKU 27–24 MTSU 0.6%WKU 28–21 MTSU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Western KYMTSU
Offense
392▲ 497
Total yards
▲ 513377
226▲ 259
Passing yards
▲ 312225
166▲ 238
Rushing yards
▲ 201152
20▲ 24
First downs
▲ 2619
Scoring
3▲ 5
Touchdowns
▲ 63
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
▲ 42
2▲ 3
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
1▲ 2
Field goals made
▲ 10
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
51▼ 45
Penalty yards
▲ 7155
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 318.5
Proj. 392
72%
Won · 497
Passing yards
Over 169.5
Proj. 226
72%
Won · 259
Rushing yards
Over 113.5
Proj. 166
72%
Won · 238
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
71%
Won · 24
Total yards
Over 303.5
Proj. 377
72%
Won · 513
Passing yards
Over 167.5
Proj. 225
72%
Won · 312
Rushing yards
Over 99.5
Proj. 152
72%
Won · 201
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
73%
Won · 26
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Western KY
QB
Brock Glenn12/21 · 125 pass yds · 0.6 TD · 0.6 INT
125pass yds
RB
Ajay Allen10 carries · 52 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 3 rec
52rush yds
WR/TE
Jonathan Stafford Jr.6 rec · 58 yds · 0.1 TD
58rec yds
WR/TE
Moussa Barry3 rec · 41 yds · 0.0 TD
41rec yds
MTSU
QB
Roman Gagliano20/34 · 220 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
220pass yds
RB
Antonio Martin14 carries · 79 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec
79rush yds
WR/TE
Cam'Ron Lacy5 rec · 58 yds · 0.5 TD
58rec yds
WR/TE
Terrence Brown Jr.5 rec · 28 yds · 0.0 TD
28rec yds
Road form. Western KY is 1-4 on the road this season, losing by 26.2 points a game.
Home form. MTSU is 3-1 at home, scoring 31.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at MTSU −1.5 and is now MTSU +2.5, a 4-point move toward Western KY.
Rest. Western KY comes in on 11 days’ rest, MTSU on 10.
Tale of the tape
Western KentuckyMiddle Tennessee
Western KentuckyMiddle Tennessee
3-5Record4-4
1-4 roadRoad / home3-1 home
L1StreakL1
11 daysRest10 days
21.3Points per game23.9
31.1Points allowed29.6
−79
Point differentialseason to date
−46
222Passing yards / game198
147Rushing yards / game146
39%3rd-down conversion32%
7Takeaways11
0Sacks0
11Turnovers6
177Passing yards / game212
105Rushing yards / game164
37%3rd-down conversion39%
5Takeaways7
0Sacks0
8Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Western KY’s road games with MTSU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Western KY
3-5
WLWWL
Wk 9Oct 27vs DEL
Delaware35Western KY21
Delaware moneyline +108Western KY moneyline −141
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 14@ SHSU
Western KY16Sam Houston3
Western KY moneyline −120Sam Houston moneyline −102
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8vs MOST
Missouri St13Western KY34
Missouri St: no odds on recordWestern KY: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 1@ NMSU
Western KY13New Mexico St34
Western KY moneyline +102New Mexico St moneyline −132
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs MERC
Mercyhurst7Western KY52
Mercyhurst moneyline +1600Western KY moneyline −10000
WFINAL
MTSU
4-4
LLWWL
Wk 9Oct 28vs KENN
Kennesaw St44MTSU28
Kennesaw St moneyline −116MTSU moneyline −115
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 20@ FIU
MTSU26FIU23
MTSU moneyline +300FIU moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 13vs DEL
Delaware30MTSU33
Delaware moneyline −123MTSU moneyline +100
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ KU
MTSU0Kansas55
MTSU moneyline +780Kansas moneyline −2500
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ JVST
MTSU13Jax State23
MTSU moneyline +220Jax State moneyline −323
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
WESTERN KY
1
Wins
Avg. points42.0 – 26.0
Avg. total68.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
MTSU
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 12Western KY home
MTSU26Western KY42
MTSU moneyline +400Western KY moneyline −625
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (WKU)−143−143
Moneyline (MTSU)+116+116
Spread (MTSU)−1.5up +2.5
Total52.5up 53.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Middle Tennessee beat Western Kentucky 51–42 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 3:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Western Kentucky at −143 and Middle Tennessee at +116.
Our model predicted a final score of Western KY 24, MTSU 21. Its picks: Western Kentucky to win (−137), lost; Middle Tennessee +7.5 (−263), won; under 60.5 points (−227), lost. The best pick was Middle Tennessee +7.5, at 77% confidence.