Moneyline
WASH MLodds down +129
Won 64%
Washington wins the game.
Confidence64%
Model54.7%
SportsbooksOdds38.4%
Edge+16.3
Washington vs Purdue prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WASH | 7 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 38 |
| PUR | 3 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 26 |
WASHINGTON 59%
Pre-game win chance
41% PURDUE
WASH by 7 · 49 points
Updated Oct 16, 11:47 PM ET
Washington vs Purdue picks
3 picks · Washington by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
WASH +10.5odds down −313
Won 82%
Washington wins, or loses by 10 points or fewer.
Confidence82%
Model74.5%
SportsbooksOdds70.4%
Edge+4.1
TotalBest pick
Over 46odds up −172
Won 76%
The two teams score 47 or more points between them (exactly 46 is a push).
Confidence76%
Model66.9%
SportsbooksOdds69.6%
Edge−2.7
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Washington733151028
Purdue70140721
Most likely final scoresWASH 28–21 PUR 0.6%WASH 27–24 PUR 0.5%WASH 31–24 PUR 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
WashingtonPurdue
Offense
381▲ 488
Total yards
▲ 371361
256▲ 302
Passing yards
▲ 273225
125▲ 186
Rushing yards
▼ 98136
20▲ 24
First downs
▼ 1920
Scoring
4▲ 5
Touchdowns
▲ 32
2▲ 3
Passing touchdowns
= 11
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
0▲ 1
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1▲ 5
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▲ 3
Interceptions thrown
▲ 21
1▲ 2
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
58▼ 33
Penalty yards
▼ 4954
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 307.5
Proj. 381
72%
Won · 488
Passing yards
Over 199.5
Proj. 256
72%
Won · 302
Rushing yards
Over 72.5
Proj. 125
72%
Won · 186
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
73%
Won · 24
Total yards
Over 287.5
Proj. 361
72%
Won · 371
Passing yards
Over 167.5
Proj. 224
72%
Won · 273
Rushing yards
Over 83.5
Proj. 136
72%
Won · 98
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
73%
Won · 19
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Washington
QB
Elijah Brown10/16 · 98 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
98pass yds
RB
Demond Williams Jr.11 carries · 42 rush yds · 0.7 TD
42rush yds
WR/TE
Dezmen Roebuck6 rec · 59 yds · 0.3 TD
59rec yds
WR/TE
Chris Lawson4 rec · 58 yds · 0.3 TD
58rec yds
Purdue
QB
Ryan Browne18/28 · 205 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.7 INT
205pass yds
RB
Fame Ijeboi19 carries · 93 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec
93rush yds
WR/TE
Asaad Waseem4 rec · 63 yds · 0.1 TD
63rec yds
WR/TE
Xavier Townsend4 rec · 42 yds · 0.2 TD
42rec yds
Road form. Washington is 0-1 on the road this season, losing by 4.0 points a game.
Home form. Purdue is 2-2 at home, scoring 32.8 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at PUR −2.5 and is now PUR −3.5, a 1-point move toward Purdue.
Rest. Washington comes in on 7 days’ rest, Purdue on 6.
Streak. Washington has lost 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
WashingtonPurdue
WashingtonPurdue
3-3Record3-3
0-1 roadRoad / home2-2 home
L3StreakW2
7 daysRest6 days
26.2Points per game32.2
22.2Points allowed31.3
+24
Point differentialseason to date
+5
280Passing yards / game282
90Rushing yards / game134
31%3rd-down conversion45%
9Takeaways5
0Sacks0
4Turnovers4
203Passing yards / game253
116Rushing yards / game162
8%3rd-down conversion47%
1Takeaways4
0Sacks0
1Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Washington’s road games with Purdue’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Washington
3-3
WWLLL
Wk 6Oct 9vs IOWA
Iowa41Washington24
Iowa moneyline +135Washington moneyline −167
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ USC
Washington21USC25
Washington moneyline +215USC moneyline −303
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs MINN
Minnesota27Washington24
Minnesota moneyline +345Washington moneyline −526
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs EW
E Washington16Washington48
E Washington: no odds on recordWashington: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs USU
Utah State14Washington16
Utah State moneyline +1700Washington moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Purdue
3-3
LLLWW
Wk 6Oct 10vs MINN
Minnesota13Purdue41
Minnesota moneyline −152Purdue moneyline +125
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ ILL
Purdue24Illinois17
Purdue moneyline +260Illinois moneyline −385
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs ND
Notre Dame49Purdue10
Notre Dame moneyline −5000Purdue moneyline +1300
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ UCLA
Purdue38UCLA52
Purdue moneyline +420UCLA moneyline −714
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs WAKE
Wake Forest38Purdue36
Wake Forest moneyline −149Purdue moneyline +117
LF/OT
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameBig Ten
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
WASHINGTON
1
Wins
Avg. points49.0 – 13.0
Avg. total62.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
PURDUE
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 12Washington home
Purdue13Washington49
Purdue moneyline +480Washington moneyline −769
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (WASH)+128up +133
Moneyline (PUR)−159down −167
Spread (PUR)−2.5down −3.5
Total52.5down 50
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Washington beat Purdue 38–26 in college football Week 7, on Friday, October 16 at 8:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Washington at +133 and Purdue at −167.
Our model predicted a final score of Washington 28, Purdue 21. Its picks: Washington to win (+129), won; Washington +10.5 (−313), won; over 46 points (−172), won. The best pick was over 46 points, at 76% confidence.