Washington vs Michigan State Prediction & Picks

Washington vs Michigan St picks

3 picks · Washington by 3 · 45 points

Moneyline

WASH MLodds up −185 86%

Washington wins the game.

Confidence86%

Model63.6% SportsbooksOdds63.6% Edge0.0

Spread

WASH +2.5odds up −222 79%

Washington wins, or loses by two points or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model67.7% SportsbooksOdds66.1% Edge+1.6

TotalBest pick

Over 36.5−270 80%

The two teams score 37 or more points between them.

Confidence80%

Model73.7% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+3.9

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Washington770101424

Michigan St77071421

Most likely final scoresWASH 24–21 MSU 0.7%WASH 28–21 MSU 0.6%WASH 20–17 MSU 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

WashingtonMichigan St

Offense

359 Total yards 321

228 Passing yards 203

131 Rushing yards 118

20 First downs 18

Scoring

3 Touchdowns 2

2 Passing touchdowns 1

1 Rushing touchdowns 1

1 Field goals made 2

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

48 Penalty yards 52

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 285.5 Proj. 359 72%

Passing yards Over 171.5 Proj. 228 72%

Rushing yards Over 78.5 Proj. 131 72%

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 20 74%

Total yards Over 247.5 Proj. 321 72%

Passing yards Over 145.5 Proj. 202 72%

Rushing yards Over 66.5 Proj. 118 72%

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 73%

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Washington

QB Demond Williams Jr.14/23 · 180 pass yds · 1.3 TD · 0.8 INT 180pass yds

RB Brian Bonner Jr.11 carries · 60 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 2 rec 60rush yds

WR/TE Chris Lawson4 rec · 64 yds · 0.2 TD 64rec yds

WR/TE Dezmen Roebuck5 rec · 58 yds · 0.5 TD 58rec yds

Michigan St

QB Alessio Milivojevic18/29 · 195 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.4 INT 195pass yds

RB Kenneth Williams10 carries · 40 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 3 rec 40rush yds

WR/TE Chrishon McCray4 rec · 57 yds · 0.2 TD 57rec yds

WR/TE Jayden Savoury4 rec · 33 yds · 0.0 TD 33rec yds

Line move. The spread opened at MSU +4.5 and is now MSU +3.5, a 1-point move toward Michigan St.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

WashingtonMichigan State

5-4Record3-6

L1StreakW1

7 daysRest7 days

26.3Points per game19.3

21.9Points allowed23.6

12th Big TenConference17th Big Ten

+40 Point differentialseason to date −38

239Passing yards / game182

96Rushing yards / game110

33%3rd-down conversion39%

11Takeaways9

0Sacks0

10Turnovers11

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Washington’s road games with Michigan St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.