Wake Forest vs SMU Prediction & Picks

Wake Forest vs SMU picks

3 picks · Wake Forest by 3 · 59 points

Moneyline

WAKE MLodds up −116 67%

Wake Forest wins the game.

Confidence67%

Model55.8% SportsbooksOdds52.1% Edge+3.7

SpreadBest pick

WAKE +5.5odds up −213 77%

Wake Forest wins, or loses by five points or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model70.0% SportsbooksOdds68.0% Edge+2.0

Total

Under 69.5−263 74%

The two teams score 69 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model79.3% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+10.0

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Wake Forest737141031

SMU70714728

Most likely final scoresWAKE 31–28 SMU 0.7%WAKE 27–24 SMU 0.6%WAKE 35–21 SMU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Wake ForestSMU

Offense

390 Total yards 395

254 Passing yards 275

136 Rushing yards 120

20 First downs 22

Scoring

4 Touchdowns 3

2 Passing touchdowns 2

2 Rushing touchdowns 1

1 Field goals made 2

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

69 Penalty yards 57

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 316.5 Proj. 390 72%

Passing yards Over 196.5 Proj. 254 72%

Rushing yards Over 84.5 Proj. 136 72%

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 73%

Total yards Over 322.5 Proj. 395 72%

Passing yards Over 218.5 Proj. 275 72%

Rushing yards Over 67.5 Proj. 120 72%

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 72%

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Wake Forest

QB Steele Pizzella9/12 · 112 pass yds · 0.6 TD · 0.0 INT 112pass yds

RB Ty Clark III9 carries · 32 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec 32rush yds

WR/TE Carlos Hernandez8 rec · 97 yds · 0.9 TD 97rec yds

WR/TE Jack Foley4 rec · 66 yds · 0.4 TD 66rec yds

SMU

QB Kevin Jennings28/37 · 273 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 273pass yds

RB Kendrick Raphael17 carries · 65 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec 65rush yds

WR/TE Yamir Knight6 rec · 68 yds · 0.6 TD 68rec yds

WR/TE Yannick Smith6 rec · 66 yds · 0.0 TD 66rec yds

Line move. The spread opened at SMU +1.5 and is now SMU −1.5, a 3-point move toward SMU.

Rest. Wake Forest comes in on 7 days’ rest, SMU on 8.

Streak. Wake Forest has won 6 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Wake ForestSMU

8-1Record7-2

W6StreakW1

7 daysRest8 days

43.3Points per game37.0

15.9Points allowed22.9

1st ACCConference4th ACC

+247 Point differentialseason to date +127

312Passing yards / game324

176Rushing yards / game155

51%3rd-down conversion48%

7Takeaways8

0Sacks0

3Turnovers12

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Wake Forest’s road games with SMU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.