Virginia vs Wake Forest Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UVA	0	0	7	0	7
WAKE	10	10	24	7	51

Virginia vs Wake Forest picks

3 picks · Wake Forest by 3 · 51 points · 2 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

WAKE MLodds up −625 Won 91%

Wake Forest wins the game.

Confidence91%

Model73.0% SportsbooksOdds86.4% Edge−13.4

Spread

UVA +22.5odds down −313 Lost 84%

Virginia wins, or loses by 22 points or fewer.

Confidence84%

Model77.5% SportsbooksOdds68.0% Edge+9.5

Total

Over 42.5odds up −217 Won 74%

The two teams score 43 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model67.2% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge−0.9

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Virginia77731424

Wake Forest0107101027

Most likely final scoresUVA 24–27 WAKE 0.6%UVA 28–31 WAKE 0.5%UVA 21–28 WAKE 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

VirginiaWake Forest

Offense

326▲ 330 Total yards ▲ 538398

210▲ 314 Passing yards ▼ 229244

116▼ 16 Rushing yards ▲ 309154

20▼ 18 First downs ▲ 2820

Scoring

3▼ 1 Touchdowns ▲ 63

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns = 11

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 52

1▼ 0 Field goals made ▲ 32

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▼ 01

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

50▼ 42 Penalty yards ▼ 4564

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 253.5 Proj. 326 72% Won · 330

Passing yards Over 153.5 Proj. 210 72% Won · 314

Rushing yards Over 63.5 Proj. 116 72% Lost · 16

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 71% Won · 18

Total yards Over 324.5 Proj. 398 72% Won · 538

Passing yards Over 186.5 Proj. 244 72% Won · 229

Rushing yards Over 101.5 Proj. 154 72% Won · 309

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 73% Won · 28

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Virginia

QB Beau Pribula21/30 · 183 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.6 INT 183pass yds

RB Jekail Middlebrook13 carries · 63 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec 63rush yds

WR/TE John Rogers4 rec · 38 yds · 0.5 TD 38rec yds

WR/TE Dashawn Martin3 rec · 31 yds · 0.7 TD 31rec yds

Wake Forest

QB Gio Lopez17/29 · 232 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 232pass yds

RB Ty Clark III11 carries · 39 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec 39rush yds

WR/TE Carlos Hernandez8 rec · 98 yds · 0.3 TD 98rec yds

WR/TE Jack Foley4 rec · 74 yds · 0.3 TD 74rec yds

Road form. Virginia is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 20.5 points a game.

Home form. Wake Forest is 2-1 at home, scoring 38.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at WAKE −12.5 and is now WAKE −13.5, a 1-point move toward Wake Forest.

Rest. Virginia comes in on 8 days’ rest, Wake Forest on 14.

Streak. Wake Forest has won 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

VirginiaWake Forest

4-4Record6-1

0-2 roadRoad / home2-1 home

L2StreakW4

8 daysRest14 days

28.3Points per game37.4

19.6Points allowed19.4

+69 Point differentialseason to date +126

200Passing yards / game290

162Rushing yards / game156

32%3rd-down conversion49%

9Takeaways4

0Sacks0

5Turnovers3

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Virginia’s road games with Wake Forest’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.