Virginia vs SMU Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UVA	0	10	3	0	13
SMU	3	10	3	7	23

Virginia vs SMU picks

3 picks · SMU by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

SMU MLodds down −400 Won 81%

SMU wins the game.

Confidence81%

Model61.3% SportsbooksOdds75.6% Edge−14.3

SpreadBest pick

UVA +17.5odds up −250 Won 79%

Virginia wins, or loses by 17 points or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model78.0% SportsbooksOdds70.2% Edge+7.8

Total

Under 60.5−270 Won 74%

The two teams score 60 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model74.8% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+5.0

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Virginia014071421

SMU07714728

Most likely final scoresUVA 21–28 SMU 0.7%UVA 21–24 SMU 0.6%UVA 24–27 SMU 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

VirginiaSMU

Offense

337▼ 258 Total yards ▲ 404393

203▼ 137 Passing yards ▲ 246244

134▼ 121 Rushing yards ▲ 158149

19▼ 13 First downs ▲ 2320

Scoring

3▼ 1 Touchdowns ▼ 24

2▼ 0 Passing touchdowns = 22

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 02

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

58▼ 35 Penalty yards ▼ 4563

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 263.5 Proj. 337 72% Lost · 258

Passing yards Over 145.5 Proj. 203 72% Lost · 137

Rushing yards Over 82.5 Proj. 134 72% Won · 121

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 73% Lost · 13

Total yards Over 320.5 Proj. 393 72% Won · 404

Passing yards Over 187.5 Proj. 244 72% Won · 246

Rushing yards Over 96.5 Proj. 149 72% Won · 158

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 72% Won · 23

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Virginia

QB Beau Pribula17/26 · 168 pass yds · 1.5 TD · 0.6 INT 168pass yds

RB Jekail Middlebrook10 carries · 46 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 46rush yds

WR/TE Rico Flores3 rec · 35 yds · 0.2 TD 35rec yds

WR/TE Dashawn Martin2 rec · 30 yds · 0.6 TD 30rec yds

SMU

QB Kevin Jennings17/28 · 228 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.9 INT 228pass yds

RB Kendrick Raphael16 carries · 90 rush yds · 1.5 TD · 1 rec 90rush yds

WR/TE Yamir Knight4 rec · 52 yds · 0.3 TD 52rec yds

WR/TE Jalen Cooper3 rec · 41 yds · 0.1 TD 41rec yds

Road form. Virginia is 0-1 on the road this season, losing by 31.0 points a game.

Home form. SMU is 3-0 at home, scoring 38.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at SMU −6.5 and is now SMU −9.5, a 3-point move toward SMU.

Rest. Virginia comes in on 7 days’ rest, SMU on 14.

Tale of the tape

VirginiaSMU

4-2Record4-1

0-1 roadRoad / home3-0 home

W1StreakW2

7 daysRest14 days

32.8Points per game34.6

19.2Points allowed23.0

+82 Point differentialseason to date +58

218Passing yards / game346

163Rushing yards / game138

33%3rd-down conversion52%

8Takeaways5

0Sacks0

2Turnovers9

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Virginia’s road games with SMU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.