Virginia Tech vs SMU Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
VT	0	14	0	14	28
SMU	10	13	14	14	51

Virginia Tech vs SMU picks

3 picks · SMU by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

SMU MLodds down −238 Won 88%

SMU wins the game.

Confidence88%

Model71.2% SportsbooksOdds67.2% Edge+4.0

Spread

SMU −6.5odds up −111 Won 72%

SMU wins by seven points or more.

Confidence72%

Model54.8% SportsbooksOdds49.7% Edge+5.1

Total

Under 56.5odds up −116 Lost 74%

The two teams score 56 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model53.0% SportsbooksOdds50.8% Edge+2.2

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Virginia Tech07014721

SMU07021728

Most likely final scoresVT 21–28 SMU 0.5%VT 14–28 SMU 0.5%VT 14–42 SMU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Virginia TechSMU

Offense

342▲ 417 Total yards ▲ 569410

220▲ 291 Passing yards ▲ 350277

122▲ 126 Rushing yards ▲ 219133

19▲ 23 First downs ▲ 2622

Scoring

3▲ 4 Touchdowns ▲ 64

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns ▲ 42

1▲ 3 Rushing touchdowns = 22

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers = 11

1= 1 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

61▼ 45 Penalty yards ▼ 3265

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 269.5 Proj. 342 72% Won · 417

Passing yards Over 163.5 Proj. 220 72% Won · 291

Rushing yards Over 69.5 Proj. 122 72% Won · 126

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 72% Won · 23

Total yards Over 336.5 Proj. 410 72% Won · 569

Passing yards Over 220.5 Proj. 277 72% Won · 350

Rushing yards Over 80.5 Proj. 133 72% Won · 219

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 71% Won · 26

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Virginia Tech

QB Ethan Grunkemeyer21/32 · 219 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 219pass yds

RB Jeffrey Overton Jr.14 carries · 78 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 3 rec 78rush yds

WR/TE Que'Sean Brown6 rec · 74 yds · 0.3 TD 74rec yds

WR/TE Luke Reynolds6 rec · 46 yds · 0.5 TD 46rec yds

SMU

QB Kevin Jennings24/33 · 275 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 275pass yds

RB Kendrick Raphael18 carries · 88 rush yds · 1.2 TD · 2 rec 88rush yds

WR/TE Yamir Knight6 rec · 68 yds · 0.5 TD 68rec yds

WR/TE Yannick Smith4 rec · 65 yds · 0.0 TD 65rec yds

Road form. Virginia Tech is 3-1 on the road this season, winning by 3.8 points a game.

Home form. SMU is 5-0 at home, scoring 39.4 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at SMU −7.5 and is now SMU −5.5, a 2-point move toward Virginia Tech.

Rest. Virginia Tech comes in on 13 days’ rest, SMU on 6.

Tale of the tape

Virginia TechSMU

6-2Record6-2

3-1 roadRoad / home5-0 home

W2StreakL1

13 daysRest6 days

35.0Points per game35.3

20.5Points allowed22.3

+116 Point differentialseason to date +104

284Passing yards / game320

140Rushing yards / game147

40%3rd-down conversion45%

6Takeaways6

0Sacks0

10Turnovers11

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Virginia Tech’s road games with SMU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.