Moneyline
MIN MLodds down −139
Won 73%
The Vikings win the game.
Confidence73%
Model61.6%
SportsbooksOdds55.7%
Edge+5.9
Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 11, 4:19 PM ET
Vikings vs Saints picks
3 picks · Vikings by 3 · 37 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
MIN +4.5−263
Won 85%
The Vikings win, or lose by four points or fewer.
Confidence85%
Model75.8%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge+6.6
Total
Over 35.5−263
Won 85%
The two teams score 36 or more points between them.
Confidence85%
Model68.9%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge−1.0
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Vikings710031720
Saints77031417
Most likely final scoresMIN 20–17 NO 0.9%MIN 23–20 NO 0.8%MIN 27–24 NO 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
VikingsSaints
Offense
299▲ 364
Total yards
▼ 142309
178▲ 211
Passing yards
▼ 87209
121▲ 153
Rushing yards
▼ 55100
18= 18
First downs
▼ 918
Scoring
2= 2
Touchdowns
= 22
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
2▲ 3
Field goals made
▼ 01
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▲ 31
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▲ 21
0▲ 2
Fumbles lost
▲ 10
3▼ 2
Sacks allowed
▼ 13
50▼ 30
Penalty yards
▼ 4151
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 252.5
Proj. 299
72%
Won · 364
Passing yards
Over 136.5
Proj. 178
72%
Won · 211
Rushing yards
Over 92.5
Proj. 121
72%
Won · 153
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
72%
Won · 18
Total yards
Over 262.5
Proj. 309
72%
Lost · 142
Passing yards
Over 167.5
Proj. 209
72%
Lost · 87
Rushing yards
Over 71.5
Proj. 100
72%
Lost · 55
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
72%
Lost · 9
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Vikings
QB
Kyler Murray14/23 · 155 pass yds · 0.3 TD · 0.7 INT
155pass yds
RB
Aaron Jones18 carries · 84 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec
84rush yds
WR/TE
T.J. Hockenson6 rec · 56 yds · 0.3 TD
56rec yds
WR/TE
Jordan Addison3 rec · 47 yds · 0.3 TD
47rec yds
Saints
QB
Tyler Shough21/34 · 209 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
209pass yds
RB
Alvin Kamara9 carries · 28 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 3 rec
28rush yds
WR/TE
Chris Olave6 rec · 92 yds · 0.1 TD
92rec yds
WR/TE
Juwan Johnson4 rec · 43 yds · 0.3 TD
43rec yds
Road form. The Vikings are 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 6.5 points a game.
Home form. The Saints are 0-2 at home, scoring 25.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at NO +1.5 and is now NO +2.5, a 1-point move toward the Vikings.
Rest. The Vikings come in on 7 days’ rest, the Saints on 6.
Streak. The Vikings have won 4 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Minnesota VikingsNew Orleans Saints
Minnesota VikingsNew Orleans Saints
4-0Record1-3
2-0 roadRoad / home0-2 home
W4StreakL2
7 daysRest6 days
21.5Points per game26.3
12.8Points allowed32.0
+35
Point differentialseason to date
−23
4.4Yards per play5.0
156Passing yards / game279
107Rushing yards / game89
34%3rd-down conversion50%
50%Red-zone touchdowns80%
7Takeaways3
16Sacks8
2Turnovers8
4.5Yards per play5.0
140Passing yards / game252
99Rushing yards / game99
18%3rd-down conversion50%
0%Red-zone touchdowns88%
4Takeaways1
10Sacks4
1Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Vikings’ road games with the Saints’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Vikings
4-0
WWWWW
Wk 4Oct 4vs MIA
Dolphins10Vikings15
Dolphins moneyline +400Vikings moneyline −556
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ TB
Vikings23Buccaneers16
Vikings moneyline −116Buccaneers moneyline −105
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ CHI
Vikings9Bears3
Vikings moneyline +175Bears moneyline −222
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs GB
Packers22Vikings39
Packers moneyline +111Vikings moneyline −139
WFINAL
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026vs GB
Packers3Vikings16
Packers moneyline +510Vikings moneyline −769
WFINAL
Saints
1-3
LLWLL
Wk 4Oct 5vs ATL
Falcons45Saints24
Falcons moneyline −102Saints moneyline −120
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs LV
Raiders35Saints27
Raiders moneyline +150Saints moneyline −200
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ BAL
Saints24Ravens17
Saints moneyline +315Ravens moneyline −435
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ DET
Saints30Lions31
Saints moneyline +255Lions moneyline −323
LF/OT
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026@ ATL
Saints17Falcons19
Saints moneyline +165Falcons moneyline −208
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC North
NFC South
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
Last two meetings · regular season and playoffs
VIKINGS
2
Wins
Avg. points27.5 – 22.0
Avg. total49.5 pts
Over closing total2 of 2
0
SAINTS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2023 · Wk 10U.S. Bank Stadium
Saints19Vikings27
Saints moneyline −161Vikings moneyline +130
2022 · Wk 4Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Vikings28Saints25
Vikings moneyline −213Saints moneyline +175
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (MIN)−133down −141
Moneyline (NO)+108up +115
Spread (NO)+1.5up +2.5
Total42down 41.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Minnesota Vikings beat the New Orleans Saints 23–13 in NFL Week 5 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET, at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans. The moneyline had the Vikings at −141 and the Saints at +115.
Our model predicted a final score of Vikings 20, Saints 17. Its picks: the Vikings to win (−139), won; the Vikings +4.5 (−263), won; over 35.5 points (−263), won. The best pick was the Vikings +4.5, at 85% confidence.