UTSA vs Florida Atlantic Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UTSA	7	15	7	0	29
FAU	21	14	15	10	60

UTSA vs FAU picks

3 picks · UTSA by 7 · 69 points · 0 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

UTSA MLodds down −303 Lost 84%

UTSA wins the game.

Confidence84%

Model67.4% SportsbooksOdds69.9% Edge−2.5

Spread

UTSA −6.5odds down −133 Lost 69%

UTSA wins by seven points or more.

Confidence69%

Model50.5% SportsbooksOdds51.2% Edge−0.7

Total

Under 73.5odds up −132 Lost 74%

The two teams score 73 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model68.1% SportsbooksOdds54.2% Edge+13.9

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

UTSA14100142438

FAU370211031

Most likely final scoresUTSA 38–31 FAU 0.5%UTSA 31–24 FAU 0.5%UTSA 28–21 FAU 0.4%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

UTSAFAU

Offense

452▼ 419 Total yards ▲ 563399

216▲ 272 Passing yards ▼ 224270

236▼ 147 Rushing yards ▲ 339129

21▲ 24 First downs ▲ 2722

Scoring

5▼ 4 Touchdowns ▲ 84

2▲ 3 Passing touchdowns ▲ 52

3▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 32

1= 1 Field goals made = 11

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▲ 2 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

62▲ 80 Penalty yards ▲ 6658

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 378.5 Proj. 452 72% Won · 419

Passing yards Over 159.5 Proj. 216 72% Won · 272

Rushing yards Over 183.5 Proj. 236 72% Lost · 147

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 22 73% Won · 24

Total yards Over 326.5 Proj. 399 72% Won · 563

Passing yards Over 213.5 Proj. 271 72% Won · 224

Rushing yards Over 76.5 Proj. 129 72% Won · 339

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 72% Won · 27

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

UTSA

QB Owen McCown19/28 · 216 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 216pass yds

RB Will Henderson III15 carries · 105 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec 105rush yds

WR/TE David Amador6 rec · 50 yds · 0.3 TD 50rec yds

WR/TE Mekhi Anderson3 rec · 33 yds · 0.7 TD 33rec yds

FAU

QB Caden Veltkamp22/35 · 257 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT 257pass yds

RB Leonard Farrow10 carries · 48 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec 48rush yds

WR/TE Easton Messer8 rec · 88 yds · 0.8 TD 88rec yds

WR/TE Kelby Valsin6 rec · 75 yds · 0.5 TD 75rec yds

Road form. UTSA is 3-1 on the road this season, winning by 1.5 points a game.

Home form. FAU is 4-0 at home, scoring 42.8 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at FAU +6.5 and is now FAU +7.5, a 1-point move toward UTSA.

Rest. UTSA comes in on 12 days’ rest, FAU on 7.

Streak. UTSA has won 5 in a row.

Tale of the tape

UTSAFlorida Atlantic

7-1Record5-3

3-1 roadRoad / home4-0 home

W5StreakL1

12 daysRest7 days

33.5Points per game37.8

26.0Points allowed35.8

+60 Point differentialseason to date +16

224Passing yards / game329

185Rushing yards / game104

42%3rd-down conversion53%

13Takeaways11

0Sacks0

6Turnovers9

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares UTSA’s road games with FAU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.