USC vs Wisconsin Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
USC	0	7	0	0	7
WIS	3	7	7	7	24

USC vs Wisconsin picks

3 picks · USC by 7 · 49 points · 1 of 3 won

Moneyline

USC MLodds up −139 Lost 81%

USC wins the game.

Confidence81%

Model61.4% SportsbooksOdds58.8% Edge+2.6

SpreadBest pick

USC +5.5odds up −256 Lost 78%

USC wins, or loses by five points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model74.7% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+4.9

Total

Under 57.5odds up −233 Won 74%

The two teams score 57 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model69.8% SportsbooksOdds69.9% Edge−0.1

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

USC714072128

Wisconsin0777721

Most likely final scoresUSC 28–21 WIS 0.6%USC 24–21 WIS 0.6%USC 23–20 WIS 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

USCWisconsin

Offense

382▼ 241 Total yards ▼ 200330

245▲ 258 Passing yards ▼ 58202

137▼ -17 Rushing yards ▲ 142128

21▲ 22 First downs ▼ 1617

Scoring

3▼ 1 Touchdowns = 33

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 21

2▼ 0 Field goals made ▲ 10

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▲ 2 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

48▲ 51 Penalty yards ▼ 3052

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 309.5 Proj. 382 72% Lost · 241

Passing yards Over 188.5 Proj. 246 72% Won · 258

Rushing yards Over 84.5 Proj. 137 72% Lost · -17

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 73% Won · 22

Total yards Over 257.5 Proj. 330 72% Lost · 200

Passing yards Over 144.5 Proj. 202 72% Lost · 58

Rushing yards Over 75.5 Proj. 128 72% Won · 142

First downs Over 13.5 Proj. 17 71% Won · 16

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

USC

QB Jayden Maiava20/31 · 236 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 236pass yds

RB King Miller17 carries · 81 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec 81rush yds

WR/TE Zacharyus Williams2 rec · 38 yds · 0.1 TD 38rec yds

WR/TE Tanook Hines3 rec · 31 yds · 0.7 TD 31rec yds

Wisconsin

QB Colton Joseph16/27 · 202 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 202pass yds

RB Darrion Dupree8 carries · 30 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 30rush yds

WR/TE Tyrell Henry5 rec · 58 yds · 0.2 TD 58rec yds

WR/TE Jacob Harris3 rec · 42 yds · 0.6 TD 42rec yds

Road form. USC is 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 7.5 points a game.

Home form. Wisconsin is 3-0 at home, scoring 40.3 points a game there.

Rest. USC comes in on 14 days’ rest, Wisconsin on 7.

Tale of the tape

USCWisconsin

6-1Record4-2

2-0 roadRoad / home3-0 home

W2StreakL1

14 daysRest7 days

36.4Points per game27.5

25.1Points allowed16.7

+79 Point differentialseason to date +65

310Passing yards / game200

152Rushing yards / game152

51%3rd-down conversion42%

6Takeaways6

0Sacks0

6Turnovers6

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares USC’s road games with Wisconsin’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.