USC vs Indiana Prediction & Picks

USC vs Indiana picks

3 picks · Indiana by 28 · 56 points

MoneylineBest pick

IU MLodds down −294 93%

Indiana wins the game.

Confidence93%

Model78.2% SportsbooksOdds70.9% Edge+7.3

Spread

IU −7.5−114 74%

Indiana wins by eight points or more.

Confidence74%

Model58.5% SportsbooksOdds49.1% Edge+9.4

Total

Over 49.5odds down −119 74%

The two teams score 50 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model58.9% SportsbooksOdds50.0% Edge+8.9

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

USC7007714

Indiana1414772842

Most likely final scoresUSC 14–42 IU 0.6%USC 17–45 IU 0.5%USC 17–41 IU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line

USCIndiana

Offense

330 Total yards 409

233 Passing yards 239

97 Rushing yards 170

19 First downs 20

Scoring

2 Touchdowns 5

1 Passing touchdowns 3

1 Rushing touchdowns 2

0 Field goals made 2

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

49 Penalty yards 46

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 257.5 Proj. 330 72%

Passing yards Over 176.5 Proj. 233 72%

Rushing yards Over 44.5 Proj. 97 72%

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 70%

Total yards Over 335.5 Proj. 409 72%

Passing yards Over 182.5 Proj. 239 72%

Rushing yards Over 116.5 Proj. 169 72%

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 21 74%

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

USC

QB Jayden Maiava21/34 · 233 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT 233pass yds

RB King Miller16 carries · 67 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec 67rush yds

WR/TE Trent Mosley6 rec · 77 yds · 0.4 TD 77rec yds

WR/TE Tanook Hines3 rec · 37 yds · 0.3 TD 37rec yds

Indiana

QB Josh Hoover15/25 · 210 pass yds · 2.7 TD · 0.6 INT 210pass yds

RB Turbo Richard13 carries · 72 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 1 rec 72rush yds

WR/TE Charlie Becker7 rec · 105 yds · 0.9 TD 105rec yds

WR/TE Nick Marsh5 rec · 87 yds · 1.8 TD 87rec yds

Rest. Both teams come in on 14 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

USCIndiana

7-2Record8-1

W1StreakW2

14 daysRest14 days

32.4Points per game32.4

24.2Points allowed12.4

4th Big TenConference2nd Big Ten

+74 Point differentialseason to date +180

295Passing yards / game233

129Rushing yards / game186

50%3rd-down conversion40%

7Takeaways9

0Sacks0

9Turnovers6

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares USC’s road games with Indiana’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.