UCLA vs Minnesota Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UCLA	10	0	7	17	34
MINN	0	10	0	10	20

UCLA vs Minnesota picks

3 picks · UCLA by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

UCLA MLodds up −185 Won 73%

UCLA wins the game.

Confidence73%

Model58.2% SportsbooksOdds69.1% Edge−10.9

SpreadBest pick

MINN +12.5odds down −323 Lost 77%

Minnesota wins, or loses by 12 points or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model72.6% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge+4.5

Total

Over 33.5odds up −204 Won 74%

The two teams score 34 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model76.6% SportsbooksOdds67.1% Edge+9.5

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

UCLA770141428

Minnesota77071421

Most likely final scoresUCLA 28–21 MINN 0.8%UCLA 24–21 MINN 0.6%UCLA 21–14 MINN 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

UCLAMinnesota

Offense

359▲ 466 Total yards ▲ 296293

199▲ 303 Passing yards ▲ 205188

160▲ 163 Rushing yards ▼ 91105

19▼ 15 First downs ▼ 1416

Scoring

3▲ 4 Touchdowns = 22

1▲ 3 Passing touchdowns = 11

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns = 11

2= 2 Field goals made = 22

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers ▼ 12

1= 1 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

55= 55 Penalty yards ▼ 4053

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 285.5 Proj. 359 72% Won · 466

Passing yards Over 141.5 Proj. 199 72% Won · 303

Rushing yards Over 107.5 Proj. 160 72% Won · 163

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 71% Lost · 15

Total yards Over 219.5 Proj. 293 72% Won · 296

Passing yards Over 130.5 Proj. 188 72% Won · 205

Rushing yards Over 52.5 Proj. 105 72% Won · 91

First downs Over 12.5 Proj. 16 71% Won · 14

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

UCLA

QB Ty Dieffenbach14/25 · 161 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.2 INT 161pass yds

RB Wayne Knight13 carries · 65 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 3 rec 65rush yds

WR/TE Semaj Morgan5 rec · 49 yds · 0.3 TD 49rec yds

WR/TE Brian Rowe Jr.2 rec · 35 yds · 0.1 TD 35rec yds

Minnesota

QB Drake Lindsey17/30 · 188 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 1.0 INT 188pass yds

RB Darius Taylor14 carries · 35 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec 35rush yds

WR/TE Javon Tracy5 rec · 56 yds · 0.1 TD 56rec yds

WR/TE TJ Thomas Jr.2 rec · 6 yds · 0.0 TD 6rec yds

Road form. UCLA is 3-0 on the road this season, winning by 24.7 points a game.

Home form. Minnesota is 4-1 at home, scoring 29.2 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at MINN +5.5 and is now MINN +3.5, a 2-point move toward Minnesota.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. UCLA has won 8 in a row.

Tale of the tape

UCLAMinnesota

8-0Record5-3

3-0 roadRoad / home4-1 home

W8StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

33.5Points per game25.3

13.4Points allowed20.5

+161 Point differentialseason to date +38

208Passing yards / game210

220Rushing yards / game100

46%3rd-down conversion32%

26Takeaways14

0Sacks0

11Turnovers9

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares UCLA’s road games with Minnesota’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.