Moneyline
KU MLodds down −233
Lost 83%
Kansas wins the game.
Confidence83%
Model62.5%
SportsbooksOdds57.0%
Edge+5.5
UCF vs Kansas prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 7, 7:41 PM ET
UCF vs Kansas picks
3 picks · Kansas by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
KU +4.5odds down −357
Won 78%
Kansas wins, or loses by four points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model74.3%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+6.0
Total
Over 41.5odds up −217
Won 74%
The two teams score 42 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model68.9%
SportsbooksOdds67.3%
Edge+1.6
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
UCF7077721
Kansas014771428
Most likely final scoresUCF 21–28 KU 0.6%UCF 21–24 KU 0.6%UCF 24–27 KU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line
UCFKansas
Offense
341▲ 358
Total yards
▼ 404414
196▲ 251
Passing yards
▼ 210250
145▼ 107
Rushing yards
▲ 194164
18▲ 23
First downs
▼ 1921
Scoring
3▲ 4
Touchdowns
▲ 43
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
▼ 02
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 41
0▲ 2
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▲ 21
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▲ 21
0
Sacks allowed
0
56▼ 0
Penalty yards
▼ 5457
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 268.5
Proj. 341
72%
Won · 358
Passing yards
Over 139.5
Proj. 197
72%
Won · 251
Rushing yards
Over 92.5
Proj. 145
72%
Won · 107
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
71%
Won · 23
Total yards
Over 340.5
Proj. 414
72%
Won · 404
Passing yards
Over 192.5
Proj. 250
72%
Won · 210
Rushing yards
Over 111.5
Proj. 164
72%
Won · 194
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
70%
Won · 19
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
UCF
QB
Keyone Jenkins17/28 · 175 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
175pass yds
RB
Duke Watson13 carries · 83 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec
83rush yds
WR/TE
Joshua Derry5 rec · 58 yds · 0.3 TD
58rec yds
WR/TE
Tyren Hornes3 rec · 41 yds · 0.1 TD
41rec yds
Kansas
QB
Cole Ballard10/17 · 143 pass yds · 0.7 TD · 0.3 INT
143pass yds
RB
Dylan Edwards18 carries · 65 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec
65rush yds
WR/TE
Cam Pickett6 rec · 66 yds · 0.3 TD
66rec yds
WR/TE
Carson Bruhn3 rec · 26 yds · 0.3 TD
26rec yds
Road form. UCF is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 9.7 points a game.
Home form. Kansas is 3-2 at home, scoring 33.8 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at KU −1.5 and is now KU −5.5, a 4-point move toward Kansas.
Rest. UCF comes in on 8 days’ rest, Kansas on 7.
Tale of the tape
UCFKansas
UCFKansas
4-4Record3-5
0-3 roadRoad / home3-2 home
L1StreakL1
8 daysRest7 days
29.8Points per game29.1
25.3Points allowed23.8
+36
Point differentialseason to date
+43
208Passing yards / game244
151Rushing yards / game203
36%3rd-down conversion36%
12Takeaways8
0Sacks0
9Turnovers13
237Passing yards / game237
68Rushing yards / game246
35%3rd-down conversion39%
2Takeaways4
0Sacks0
3Turnovers9
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares UCF’s road games with Kansas’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
UCF
4-4
WLLWL
Wk 9Oct 30vs BAY
Baylor41UCF9
Baylor moneyline −137UCF moneyline +110
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs BYU
BYU31UCF39
BYU moneyline −345UCF moneyline +250
WF/OT
Wk 6Oct 10@ OKST
UCF28Oklahoma St42
UCF moneyline +340Oklahoma St moneyline −476
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ HOU
UCF17Houston27
UCF moneyline +300Houston moneyline −455
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs TCU
TCU13UCF21
TCU moneyline −192UCF moneyline +138
WFINAL
Kansas
3-5
WLLWL
Wk 9Oct 31@ TCU
Kansas16TCU22
Kansas moneyline +190TCU moneyline −263
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs BAY
Baylor24Kansas25
Baylor moneyline −112Kansas moneyline −119
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ KSU
Kansas24Kansas St35
Kansas moneyline +128Kansas St moneyline −159
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ UTAH
Kansas24Utah41
Kansas moneyline +500Utah moneyline −769
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs MTSU
MTSU0Kansas55
MTSU moneyline +780Kansas moneyline −2500
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameBig 12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
UCF
0
Wins
Avg. points20.0 – 27.0
Avg. total47.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
1
KANSAS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 6FBC Mortgage Stadium
UCF20Kansas27
UCF moneyline −196Kansas moneyline +143
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (UCF)+170+170
Moneyline (KU)−213−213
Spread (KU)−1.5down −5.5
Total49.5down 48.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
UCF beat Kansas 33–32 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 3:45 PM ET. The moneyline had UCF at +170 and Kansas at −213.
Our model predicted a final score of UCF 21, Kansas 28. Its picks: Kansas to win (−233), lost; Kansas +4.5 (−357), won; over 41.5 points (−217), won. The best pick was Kansas +4.5, at 78% confidence.