MoneylineBest pick
USF ML−333
Won 94%
South Florida wins the game.
Confidence94%
Model84.4%
SportsbooksOdds74.8%
Edge+9.6
UAB vs South Florida prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAB | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| USF | 0 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
UAB 16%
Pre-game win chance
84% SOUTH FLORIDA
USF by 28 · 42 points
Updated Oct 31, 3:40 PM ET
UAB vs South Florida picks
3 picks · South Florida by 28 · 42 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
USF +1.5odds up −323
Won 83%
South Florida wins, or loses by one point or fewer.
Confidence83%
Model76.4%
SportsbooksOdds73.9%
Edge+2.5
Total
Over 35.5odds up −256
Won 74%
The two teams score 36 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model66.4%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge−2.8
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
UAB007007
South Florida714772135
Most likely final scoresUAB 7–35 USF 0.7%UAB 14–28 USF 0.6%UAB 10–38 USF 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
UABSouth Florida
Offense
331▼ 177
Total yards
▼ 237370
182▼ 160
Passing yards
▼ 46184
149▼ 17
Rushing yards
▲ 191186
19▼ 10
First downs
▼ 1322
Scoring
1= 1
Touchdowns
▼ 14
0= 0
Passing touchdowns
▼ 02
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
0▲ 1
Field goals made
▲ 32
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▲ 2
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
54▼ 20
Penalty yards
▼ 2446
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 257.5
Proj. 331
72%
Lost · 177
Passing yards
Over 124.5
Proj. 182
72%
Won · 160
Rushing yards
Over 96.5
Proj. 149
72%
Lost · 17
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
70%
Lost · 10
Total yards
Over 296.5
Proj. 370
72%
Lost · 237
Passing yards
Over 127.5
Proj. 184
72%
Lost · 46
Rushing yards
Over 133.5
Proj. 186
72%
Won · 191
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 22
74%
Lost · 13
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
UAB
QB
Ryder Burton16/27 · 179 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.7 INT
179pass yds
RB
Roderick Robinson II14 carries · 57 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec
57rush yds
WR/TE
Tiaquelin Mims3 rec · 55 yds · 0.0 TD
55rec yds
WR/TE
C.J. Smith4 rec · 54 yds · 0.0 TD
54rec yds
South Florida
QB
Michael Van Buren Jr.15/24 · 181 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.0 INT
181pass yds
RB
D.J. Crowther19 carries · 100 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 1 rec
100rush yds
WR/TE
Bryson Rodgers4 rec · 48 yds · 0.7 TD
48rec yds
WR/TE
Joshua Porter3 rec · 41 yds · 0.7 TD
41rec yds
Road form. UAB is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 17.0 points a game.
Home form. South Florida is 3-1 at home, scoring 30.0 points a game there.
Rest. UAB comes in on 16 days’ rest, South Florida on 14.
Tale of the tape
UABSouth Florida
UABSouth Florida
4-3Record5-2
0-3 roadRoad / home3-1 home
W1StreakW1
16 daysRest14 days
23.3Points per game26.6
24.6Points allowed15.1
−9
Point differentialseason to date
+80
171Passing yards / game184
168Rushing yards / game142
42%3rd-down conversion40%
10Takeaways7
0Sacks0
10Turnovers4
165Passing yards / game205
149Rushing yards / game148
33%3rd-down conversion42%
2Takeaways6
0Sacks0
5Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares UAB’s road games with South Florida’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
UAB
4-3
LWWLW
Wk 7Oct 15vs ECU
East Carolina17UAB30
East Carolina moneyline −222UAB moneyline +175
WF/OT
Wk 6Oct 10@ MEM
UAB13Memphis38
UAB moneyline +419Memphis moneyline −769
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs SAMF
Samford14UAB33
Samford moneyline +1300UAB moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 25vs NAVY
Navy20UAB24
Navy moneyline −270UAB moneyline +195
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ ULL
UAB14Louisiana21
UAB moneyline +200Louisiana moneyline −278
LFINAL
South Florida
5-2
WWLLW
Wk 7Oct 17vs KENT
Kent State2South Florida29
Kent State moneyline +1100South Florida moneyline −3333
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8@ UTSA
South Florida24UTSA31
South Florida: no odds on recordUTSA: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs TEM
Temple17South Florida13
Temple moneyline +175South Florida moneyline −238
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ BGSU
South Florida14Bowling Green6
South Florida moneyline −1429Bowling Green moneyline +630
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs DS
Delaware St17South Florida59
Delaware St moneyline +1500South Florida moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameAmerican
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
UAB
0
Wins
Avg. points18.0 – 48.0
Avg. total66.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
1
SOUTH FLORIDA
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 13UAB home
South Florida48UAB18
South Florida moneyline −2000UAB moneyline +860
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (UAB)+250+250
Moneyline (USF)−333−333
Spread (USF)−7.5−7.5
Total42.542.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
South Florida beat UAB 30–10 in college football Week 9, on Saturday, October 31 at 12:00 PM ET. The moneyline had UAB at +250 and South Florida at −333.
Our model predicted a final score of UAB 7, South Florida 35. Its picks: South Florida to win (−333), won; South Florida +1.5 (−323), won; over 35.5 points (−256), won. The best pick was South Florida to win, at 94% confidence.