MoneylineBest pick
IND MLodds up −303
Lost 90%
The Colts win the game.
Confidence90%
Model69.9%
SportsbooksOdds75.0%
Edge−5.1
Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 18, 4:23 PM ET
Titans vs Colts picks
3 picks · Colts by 3 · 51 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
TEN +13.5odds up −270
Won 74%
The Titans win, or lose by 13 points or fewer.
Confidence74%
Model67.2%
SportsbooksOdds70.2%
Edge−3.0
Total
Over 37.5odds up −244
Won 76%
The two teams score 38 or more points between them.
Confidence76%
Model70.8%
SportsbooksOdds69.5%
Edge+1.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Titans07143724
Colts1030141327
Most likely final scoresTEN 24–27 IND 0.7%TEN 20–23 IND 0.7%TEN 27–30 IND 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
TitansColts
Offense
307▼ 186
Total yards
▲ 399326
204▼ 102
Passing yards
▲ 234220
103▼ 84
Rushing yards
▲ 165106
18▼ 11
First downs
▲ 2420
Scoring
3▼ 2
Touchdowns
▼ 23
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
1▲ 4
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 31
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
2▼ 0
Sacks allowed
▲ 62
53▲ 54
Penalty yards
▲ 6152
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 260.5
Proj. 307
72%
Lost · 186
Passing yards
Over 161.5
Proj. 203
72%
Lost · 102
Rushing yards
Over 74.5
Proj. 103
72%
Won · 84
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
69%
Lost · 11
Total yards
Over 279.5
Proj. 326
72%
Won · 399
Passing yards
Over 179.5
Proj. 221
72%
Won · 234
Rushing yards
Over 77.5
Proj. 106
72%
Won · 165
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
75%
Won · 24
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Titans
QB
Cameron Ward21/33 · 204 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
204pass yds
RB
Tony Pollard16 carries · 68 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
68rush yds
WR/TE
Carnell Tate5 rec · 68 yds · 0.0 TD
68rec yds
WR/TE
Wan'Dale Robinson5 rec · 44 yds · 1.3 TD
44rec yds
Colts
QB
Daniel Jones22/32 · 220 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
220pass yds
RB
Jonathan Taylor21 carries · 83 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 3 rec
83rush yds
WR/TE
Josh Downs4 rec · 57 yds · 0.0 TD
57rec yds
WR/TE
Tyler Warren6 rec · 49 yds · 1.3 TD
49rec yds
Road form. The Titans are 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 5.5 points a game.
Home form. The Colts are 1-1 at home, scoring 21.0 points a game there.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two AFC South rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Streak. The Titans have lost 5 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Tennessee TitansIndianapolis Colts
Tennessee TitansIndianapolis Colts
0-5Record2-3
0-2 roadRoad / home1-1 home
L5StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
11.6Points per game24.8
21.8Points allowed27.6
−51
Point differentialseason to date
−14
4.5Yards per play4.6
164Passing yards / game193
83Rushing yards / game101
36%3rd-down conversion35%
46%Red-zone touchdowns67%
2Takeaways2
10Sacks10
7Turnovers8
4.9Yards per play4.4
197Passing yards / game180
83Rushing yards / game96
30%3rd-down conversion40%
43%Red-zone touchdowns67%
0Takeaways1
5Sacks5
4Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Titans’ road games with the Colts’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Titans
0-5
LLLLL
Wk 5Oct 11vs HOU
Texans26Titans3
Texans moneyline −333Titans moneyline +244
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ BAL
Titans18Ravens24
Titans moneyline +525Ravens moneyline −769
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ NYG
Titans7Giants12
Titans moneyline +112Giants moneyline −141
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs PHI
Eagles24Titans20
Eagles moneyline −345Titans moneyline +255
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs NYJ
Jets23Titans10
Jets moneyline −102Titans moneyline −119
LFINAL
Colts
2-3
LLWWL
Wk 5Oct 11@ PIT
Colts22Steelers34
Colts moneyline +131Steelers moneyline −161
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ WAS
Colts30Commanders13
Colts moneyline −227Commanders moneyline +175
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs HOU
Texans17Colts19
Texans moneyline −125Colts moneyline +102
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ KC
Colts30Chiefs33
Colts moneyline +215Chiefs moneyline −294
LF/OT
Wk 1Sep 13vs BAL
Ravens41Colts23
Ravens moneyline −161Colts moneyline +133
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this game
Head-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
TITANS
0
Wins
Avg. points21.8 – 33.6
Avg. total55.4 pts
Over closing total4 of 5
5
COLTS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 8Lucas Oil Stadium
Titans14Colts38
Titans moneyline +740Colts moneyline −1667
2025 · Wk 3Nissan Stadium
Colts41Titans20
Colts moneyline −270Titans moneyline +200
2024 · Wk 16Lucas Oil Stadium
Titans30Colts38
Titans moneyline +170Colts moneyline −213
2024 · Wk 6Nissan Stadium
Colts20Titans17
Colts moneyline +112Titans moneyline −139
2023 · Wk 13Nissan Stadium
Colts31Titans28
Colts moneyline −120Titans moneyline +102
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (TEN)+260down +240
Moneyline (IND)−323up −303
Spread (IND)−6.5−6.5
Total43.543.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Tennessee Titans beat the Indianapolis Colts 26–20 in NFL Week 6 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM ET, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis. The moneyline had the Titans at +240 and the Colts at −303.
Our model predicted a final score of Titans 24, Colts 27. Its picks: the Colts to win (−303), lost; the Titans +13.5 (−270), won; over 37.5 points (−244), won. The best pick was the Colts to win, at 90% confidence.