Moneyline
TTU MLodds down +133
64%
Texas Tech wins the game.
Confidence64%
Model54.8%
SportsbooksOdds38.9%
Edge+15.9
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State prediction, picks and odds
SpreadOKST −3.5
Total72.5 points
Kickoff in3d 5h
Updated 1:48 PM ET
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma St picks
3 picks · Texas Tech by 3 · 59 pointsSpreadBest pick
TTU +10.5odds down −270
76%
Texas Tech wins, or loses by 10 points or fewer.
Confidence76%
Model64.8%
SportsbooksOdds68.7%
Edge−3.9
Total
Under 80.5odds up −222
74%
The two teams score 80 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model62.8%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge−5.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Texas Tech7101401731
Oklahoma St0140141428
Most likely final scoresTTU 31–28 OKST 0.6%TTU 38–31 OKST 0.5%TTU 34–31 OKST 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Texas TechOklahoma St
Offense
431
Total yards
420
240
Passing yards
289
191
Rushing yards
131
21
First downs
20
Scoring
4
Touchdowns
4
2
Passing touchdowns
2
2
Rushing touchdowns
2
1
Field goals made
0
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
55
Penalty yards
51
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 357.5
Proj. 431
72%
Passing yards
Over 183.5
Proj. 240
72%
Rushing yards
Over 138.5
Proj. 191
72%
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 21
74%
Total yards
Over 347.5
Proj. 420
72%
Passing yards
Over 231.5
Proj. 289
72%
Rushing yards
Over 79.5
Proj. 131
72%
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
70%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Texas Tech
QB
Thomas Castellanos9/15 · 130 pass yds · 1.6 TD · 0.0 INT
130pass yds
RB
J'Koby Williams13 carries · 93 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 3 rec
93rush yds
WR/TE
Kenny Johnson5 rec · 71 yds · 0.5 TD
71rec yds
WR/TE
Terrance Carter4 rec · 46 yds · 0.9 TD
46rec yds
Oklahoma St
QB
Drew Mestemaker23/36 · 282 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.9 INT
282pass yds
RB
Caleb Hawkins23 carries · 99 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 5 rec
99rush yds
WR/TE
Wyatt Young6 rec · 74 yds · 0.5 TD
74rec yds
WR/TE
Justin Bowick5 rec · 69 yds · 0.6 TD
69rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at OKST +1.5 and is now OKST −3.5, a 5-point move toward Oklahoma St.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
Texas TechOklahoma State
Texas TechOklahoma State
8-1Record6-3
W2StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
37.6Points per game43.9
24.1Points allowed27.2
2nd Big 12Conference6th Big 12
+121
Point differentialseason to date
+150
235Passing yards / game339
215Rushing yards / game194
40%3rd-down conversion41%
14Takeaways14
0Sacks0
13Turnovers15
186Passing yards / game348
170Rushing yards / game209
32%3rd-down conversion40%
7Takeaways7
0Sacks0
4Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Texas Tech’s road games with Oklahoma St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Texas Tech
8-1
WWLWW
Wk 10Nov 7vs WVU
West Virginia48Texas Tech53
West Virginia moneyline +525Texas Tech moneyline −833
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs ARIZ
Arizona26Texas Tech34
Arizona moneyline +145Texas Tech moneyline −213
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ CIN
Texas Tech24Cincinnati37
Texas Tech moneyline −500Cincinnati moneyline +330
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs ASU
Arizona St25Texas Tech53
Arizona St moneyline +540Texas Tech moneyline −833
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ COLO
Texas Tech29Colorado7
Texas Tech moneyline −667Colorado moneyline +420
WFINAL
Oklahoma St
6-3
WLWLW
Wk 10Nov 7@ KSU
Oklahoma St66Kansas St28
Oklahoma St moneyline −250Kansas St moneyline +200
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31@ ISU
Oklahoma St49Iowa State51
Oklahoma St moneyline −435Iowa State moneyline +300
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs COLO
Colorado24Oklahoma St57
Colorado moneyline +425Oklahoma St moneyline −714
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ HOU
Oklahoma St32Houston35
Oklahoma St moneyline +150Houston moneyline −182
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs UCF
UCF28Oklahoma St42
UCF moneyline +340Oklahoma St moneyline −476
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameBig 12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
TEXAS TECH
1
Wins
Avg. points42.0 – 0.0
Avg. total42.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
OKLAHOMA ST
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 9Jones AT&T Stadium
Texas Tech42Oklahoma St0
Texas Tech moneyline +1100Oklahoma St moneyline −10000
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (TTU)+135+135
Moneyline (OKST)−172−172
Spread (OKST)+1.5down −3.5
Total63.5up 72.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Texas Tech visits Oklahoma State in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 9:30 PM ET. Texas Tech comes in at 8-1 and Oklahoma State at 6-3. The moneyline has Texas Tech at +135 and Oklahoma State at −172.
Our model predicts a final score of Texas Tech 31, Oklahoma St 28. Its picks: Texas Tech to win (+133); Texas Tech +10.5 (−270); under 80.5 points (−222). The best pick is Texas Tech +10.5, at 76% confidence.