MoneylineBest pick
HOU MLodds up −323
Won 86%
The Texans win the game.
Confidence86%
Model64.6%
SportsbooksOdds76.7%
Edge−12.1
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 11, 4:19 PM ET
Texans vs Titans picks
3 picks · Texans by 3 · 37 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
TEN +14.5odds down −323
Lost 85%
The Titans win, or lose by 14 points or fewer.
Confidence85%
Model75.8%
SportsbooksOdds70.7%
Edge+5.1
Total
Over 32.5odds up −238
Lost 85%
The two teams score 33 or more points between them.
Confidence85%
Model75.9%
SportsbooksOdds68.7%
Edge+7.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Texans0100101020
Titans03014317
Most likely final scoresHOU 20–17 TEN 0.9%HOU 27–24 TEN 0.7%HOU 23–20 TEN 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
TexansTitans
Offense
340▼ 329
Total yards
▼ 187290
238▲ 250
Passing yards
▼ 130198
102▼ 79
Rushing yards
▼ 5792
20= 20
First downs
▼ 1617
Scoring
2= 2
Touchdowns
▼ 02
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▲ 4
Field goals made
= 11
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
0= 0
Fumbles lost
▲ 10
2= 2
Sacks allowed
▲ 42
55▲ 95
Penalty yards
▲ 8351
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 293.5
Proj. 340
72%
Won · 329
Passing yards
Over 196.5
Proj. 238
72%
Won · 250
Rushing yards
Over 73.5
Proj. 102
72%
Won · 79
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
74%
Won · 20
Total yards
Over 243.5
Proj. 290
72%
Lost · 187
Passing yards
Over 156.5
Proj. 198
72%
Lost · 130
Rushing yards
Over 63.5
Proj. 92
72%
Lost · 57
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 17
72%
Won · 15
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Texans
QB
C.J. Stroud21/32 · 238 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
238pass yds
RB
David Montgomery14 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
41rush yds
WR/TE
Dalton Schultz5 rec · 48 yds · 0.0 TD
48rec yds
WR/TE
Xavier Hutchinson3 rec · 37 yds · 0.0 TD
37rec yds
Titans
QB
Cameron Ward21/33 · 198 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
198pass yds
RB
Tony Pollard15 carries · 57 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
57rush yds
WR/TE
Carnell Tate6 rec · 77 yds · 0.0 TD
77rec yds
WR/TE
Wan'Dale Robinson4 rec · 35 yds · 0.7 TD
35rec yds
Road form. The Texans are 0-1 on the road this season, losing by 2.0 points a game.
Home form. The Titans are 0-2 at home, scoring 15.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at TEN +7.5 and is now TEN +6.5, a 1-point move toward the Titans.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two AFC South rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Houston TexansTennessee Titans
Houston TexansTennessee Titans
0-4Record0-4
0-1 roadRoad / home0-2 home
L4StreakL4
7 daysRest7 days
21.0Points per game13.8
27.3Points allowed20.8
−25
Point differentialseason to date
−28
5.4Yards per play4.9
265Passing yards / game172
79Rushing yards / game89
35%3rd-down conversion35%
57%Red-zone touchdowns50%
3Takeaways2
14Sacks8
2Turnovers5
4.4Yards per play4.9
153Passing yards / game148
70Rushing yards / game95
36%3rd-down conversion40%
67%Red-zone touchdowns60%
3Takeaways2
4Sacks3
0Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Texans’ road games with the Titans’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Texans
0-4
LLLLL
Wk 4Oct 4vs DAL
Cowboys34Texans30
Cowboys moneyline +123Texans moneyline −152
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ IND
Texans17Colts19
Texans moneyline −125Colts moneyline +102
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs CIN
Bengals20Texans6
Bengals moneyline +120Texans moneyline −147
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs BUF
Bills36Texans31
Bills moneyline −120Texans moneyline −102
LFINAL
DivisionalJan 18, 2026@ NE
Texans16Patriots28
Texans moneyline +145Patriots moneyline −172
LFINAL
Titans
0-4
LLLLL
Wk 4Oct 4@ BAL
Titans18Ravens24
Titans moneyline +525Ravens moneyline −769
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ NYG
Titans7Giants12
Titans moneyline +112Giants moneyline −141
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs PHI
Eagles24Titans20
Eagles moneyline −345Titans moneyline +255
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs NYJ
Jets23Titans10
Jets moneyline −102Titans moneyline −119
LFINAL
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026@ JAX
Titans7Jaguars41
Titans moneyline +500Jaguars moneyline −833
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameHead-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
TEXANS
4
Wins
Avg. points23.6 – 12.4
Avg. total36.0 pts
Over closing total2 of 5
1
TITANS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 11Nissan Stadium
Texans16Titans13
Texans moneyline −256Titans moneyline +190
2025 · Wk 4NRG Stadium
Titans0Texans26
Titans moneyline +300Texans moneyline −417
2024 · Wk 18Nissan Stadium
Texans23Titans14
Texans moneyline +120Titans moneyline −149
2024 · Wk 12NRG Stadium
Titans32Texans27
Titans moneyline +310Texans moneyline −455
2023 · Wk 17NRG Stadium
Titans3Texans26
Titans moneyline +190Texans moneyline −227
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (HOU)−333−333
Moneyline (TEN)+249down +244
Spread (TEN)+7.5down +6.5
Total38down 37.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Houston Texans beat the Tennessee Titans 26–3 in NFL Week 5 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET, at Nissan Stadium, Nashville. The moneyline had the Texans at −333 and the Titans at +244.
Our model predicted a final score of Texans 20, Titans 17. Its picks: the Texans to win (−323), won; the Titans +14.5 (−323), lost; over 32.5 points (−238), lost. The best pick was the Texans to win, at 86% confidence.