Moneyline
JAX MLodds up −143
Lost 66%
The Jaguars win the game.
Confidence66%
Model57.9%
SportsbooksOdds58.0%
Edge−0.1
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 18, 12:56 PM ET
Texans vs Jaguars picks
3 picks · Jaguars by 3 · 37 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
JAX +3.5odds up −244
Won 76%
The Jaguars win, or lose by three points or fewer.
Confidence76%
Model70.3%
SportsbooksOdds69.5%
Edge+0.8
TotalBest pick
Over 36−270
Won 77%
The two teams score 37 or more points between them (exactly 36 is a push).
Confidence77%
Model70.3%
SportsbooksOdds70.7%
Edge−0.4
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Texans0737717
Jaguars07310720
Most likely final scoresHOU 17–20 JAX 1.0%HOU 20–23 JAX 0.8%HOU 24–27 JAX 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
TexansJaguars
Offense
330▲ 426
Total yards
▲ 412318
249▲ 312
Passing yards
▲ 306220
81▲ 114
Rushing yards
▲ 10698
19▲ 23
First downs
▲ 2419
Scoring
2▲ 4
Touchdowns
▲ 42
1▲ 3
Passing touchdowns
▲ 41
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
1▲ 2
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
2▼ 0
Sacks allowed
▼ 23
56▼ 40
Penalty yards
▲ 6655
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 283.5
Proj. 330
72%
Won · 426
Passing yards
Over 207.5
Proj. 249
72%
Won · 312
Rushing yards
Over 52.5
Proj. 81
72%
Won · 114
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
71%
Won · 23
Total yards
Over 271.5
Proj. 318
72%
Won · 412
Passing yards
Over 178.5
Proj. 220
72%
Won · 306
Rushing yards
Over 69.5
Proj. 98
72%
Won · 106
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
73%
Won · 24
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Texans
QB
C.J. Stroud24/36 · 249 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
249pass yds
RB
David Montgomery11 carries · 28 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec
28rush yds
WR/TE
Nico Collins6 rec · 74 yds · 0.6 TD
74rec yds
WR/TE
Jaylin Noel3 rec · 43 yds · 0.2 TD
43rec yds
Jaguars
QB
Trevor Lawrence21/32 · 220 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
220pass yds
RB
Bhayshul Tuten15 carries · 60 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
60rush yds
WR/TE
Brenton Strange5 rec · 47 yds · 0.1 TD
47rec yds
WR/TE
Jakobi Meyers3 rec · 40 yds · 0.2 TD
40rec yds
Road form. The Texans are 1-1 on the road this season, winning by 10.5 points a game.
Home form. The Jaguars are 3-0 at home, scoring 29.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at JAX −0.5 and is now JAX −2.5, a 2-point move toward the Jaguars.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two AFC South rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Houston TexansJacksonville Jaguars
Houston TexansJacksonville Jaguars
1-4Record4-1
1-1 roadRoad / home3-0 home
W1StreakW3
7 daysRest7 days
22.0Points per game24.6
22.4Points allowed14.0
−2
Point differentialseason to date
+53
5.4Yards per play5.7
262Passing yards / game221
79Rushing yards / game114
38%3rd-down conversion46%
56%Red-zone touchdowns64%
5Takeaways8
18Sacks11
2Turnovers3
4.8Yards per play5.9
202Passing yards / game239
75Rushing yards / game122
43%3rd-down conversion47%
57%Red-zone touchdowns70%
5Takeaways5
8Sacks9
0Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Texans’ road games with the Jaguars’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Texans
1-4
LLLLW
Wk 5Oct 11@ TEN
Texans26Titans3
Texans moneyline −333Titans moneyline +244
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs DAL
Cowboys34Texans30
Cowboys moneyline +123Texans moneyline −152
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ IND
Texans17Colts19
Texans moneyline −125Colts moneyline +102
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs CIN
Bengals20Texans6
Bengals moneyline +120Texans moneyline −147
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs BUF
Bills36Texans31
Bills moneyline −120Texans moneyline −102
LFINAL
Jaguars
4-1
WLWWW
Wk 5Oct 11vs PHI
Eagles17Jaguars19
Eagles moneyline +310Jaguars moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ CIN
Jaguars22Bengals17
Jaguars moneyline +116Bengals moneyline −149
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs NE
Patriots6Jaguars35
Patriots moneyline +132Jaguars moneyline −156
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ DEN
Jaguars13Broncos20
Jaguars moneyline +125Broncos moneyline −152
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs CLE
Browns10Jaguars34
Browns moneyline +330Jaguars moneyline −455
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameHead-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
TEXANS
3
Wins
Avg. points22.8 – 22.0
Avg. total44.8 pts
Over closing total1 of 5
2
JAGUARS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 10NRG Stadium
Jaguars29Texans36
Jaguars moneyline −109Texans moneyline −118
2025 · Wk 3EverBank Stadium
Texans10Jaguars17
Texans moneyline +100Jaguars moneyline −123
2024 · Wk 13EverBank Stadium
Texans23Jaguars20
Texans moneyline −179Jaguars moneyline +145
2024 · Wk 4NRG Stadium
Jaguars20Texans24
Jaguars moneyline +200Texans moneyline −263
2023 · Wk 12NRG Stadium
Jaguars24Texans21
Jaguars moneyline −122Texans moneyline +100
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (HOU)+121up +122
Moneyline (JAX)−143down −145
Spread (JAX)−0.5down −2.5
Total42.5down 42
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Houston Texans beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 34–31 in NFL Week 6 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 18 at 9:30 AM ET, at Wembley Stadium, London (neutral site). The moneyline had the Texans at +122 and the Jaguars at −145.
Our model predicted a final score of Texans 17, Jaguars 20. Its picks: the Jaguars to win (−143), lost; the Jaguars +3.5 (−244), won; over 36 points (−270), won. The best pick was over 36 points, at 77% confidence.