Moneyline
HOU ML−238
84%
The Texans win the game.
Confidence84%
Model67.4%
SportsbooksOdds68.0%
Edge−0.6
Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns prediction, picks and odds
Updated 3:17 PM ET
Texans vs Browns picks
3 picks · Texans by 3 · 37 pointsSpreadBest pick
CLE +10.5odds up −263
78%
The Browns win, or lose by 10 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model66.1%
SportsbooksOdds69.8%
Edge−3.7
Total
Over 33.5odds down −270
77%
The two teams score 34 or more points between them.
Confidence77%
Model74.0%
SportsbooksOdds69.1%
Edge+4.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Texans0100101020
Browns0737717
Most likely final scoresHOU 20–17 CLE 0.8%HOU 27–24 CLE 0.8%HOU 23–20 CLE 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
TexansBrowns
Offense
345
Total yards
311
230
Passing yards
210
115
Rushing yards
101
19
First downs
17
Scoring
2
Touchdowns
2
1
Passing touchdowns
1
1
Rushing touchdowns
1
2
Field goals made
1
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
2
Sacks allowed
4
53
Penalty yards
55
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 298.5
Proj. 345
72%
Passing yards
Over 188.5
Proj. 230
72%
Rushing yards
Over 86.5
Proj. 116
72%
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
73%
Total yards
Over 264.5
Proj. 311
72%
Passing yards
Over 169.5
Proj. 210
72%
Rushing yards
Over 72.5
Proj. 101
72%
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 17
72%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Texans
QB
C.J. Stroud20/33 · 230 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
230pass yds
RB
Jo'quavious Marks15 carries · 65 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec
65rush yds
WR/TE
Nico Collins4 rec · 50 yds · 0.2 TD
50rec yds
WR/TE
Dalton Schultz3 rec · 27 yds · 0.0 TD
27rec yds
Browns
QB
Shedeur Sanders9/15 · 115 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
115pass yds
RB
Quinshon Judkins15 carries · 51 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec
51rush yds
WR/TE
Harold Fannin Jr.4 rec · 51 yds · 0.5 TD
51rec yds
WR/TE
Denzel Boston4 rec · 48 yds · 0.3 TD
48rec yds
Road form. The Texans are 3-1 on the road this season, winning by 11.5 points a game.
Home form. The Browns are 3-0 at home, scoring 20.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at CLE +3.5 and is now CLE +4.5, a 1-point move toward the Texans.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
The series. The Browns have won 2 of the last 3 meetings.
Tale of the tape
Houston TexansCleveland Browns
Houston TexansCleveland Browns
3-5Record5-4
3-1 roadRoad / home3-0 home
W1StreakL2
7 daysRest7 days
26.1Points per game17.9
24.0Points allowed21.8
2nd AFC SouthDivision3rd AFC North
+17
Point differentialseason to date
−35
5.8Yards per play5.0
269Passing yards / game210
87Rushing yards / game97
40%3rd-down conversion34%
62%Red-zone touchdowns39%
8Takeaways12
31Sacks26
4Turnovers11
6.1Yards per play4.7
274Passing yards / game177
92Rushing yards / game112
48%3rd-down conversion34%
63%Red-zone touchdowns71%
8Takeaways4
18Sacks11
2Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Texans’ road games with the Browns’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Texans
3-5
LWWLW
Wk 9Nov 8@ LAC
Texans44Chargers22
Texans moneyline −250Chargers moneyline +195
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25vs NYG
Giants27Texans21
Giants moneyline +375Texans moneyline −500
LF/OT
Wk 6Oct 18@ JAX
Texans34Jaguars31
Texans moneyline +122Jaguars moneyline −145
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ TEN
Texans26Titans3
Texans moneyline −333Titans moneyline +244
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs DAL
Cowboys34Texans30
Cowboys moneyline +123Texans moneyline −152
LFINAL
Browns
5-4
LWWLL
Wk 9Nov 8@ NO
Browns22Saints23
Browns moneyline +185Saints moneyline −238
LF/OT
Wk 8Nov 1@ PIT
Browns6Steelers27
Browns moneyline +165Steelers moneyline −200
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25@ TEN
Browns27Titans24
Browns moneyline −130Titans moneyline +110
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs BAL
Ravens10Browns13
Ravens moneyline −169Browns moneyline +144
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ NYJ
Browns12Jets17
Browns moneyline +121Jets moneyline −149
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · after Week 9Teams in this gameAFC South
Head-to-head
Last three meetings · regular season and playoffs
TEXANS
1
Wins
Avg. points27.0 – 25.7
Avg. total52.7 pts
Over closing total2 of 3
2
BROWNS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2023 · Wild CardNRG Stadium
Browns14Texans45
Browns moneyline −143Texans moneyline +119
2023 · Wk 16NRG Stadium
Browns36Texans22
Browns moneyline −154Texans moneyline +132
2022 · Wk 13NRG Stadium
Browns27Texans14
Browns moneyline −313Texans moneyline +255
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (HOU)−233−233
Moneyline (CLE)+190+190
Spread (CLE)+3.5up +4.5
Total39.5up 40.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Injury report
The teams’ current reports: out, doubtful and questionable firstTexans
INACTIVE
Braden Smith
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Cade StoverTE
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
David MontgomeryRB
Inactive for Week 9 at L.A. Chargers
INACTIVE
Febechi Nwaiwu
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Reed BlankenshipS
Inactive for Week 9 at L.A. Chargers
Reserve lists (IR / PUP) · 12
IRBritish BrooksRBHamstring
IRJake HummelLBGroin
IRSam HagenUndisclosed
IRJaylin NoelWRToe
IRJaylin SmithCBHamstring
IRAli GayeDEKnee
IRDylan HortonDEAchilles
IRGraham MertzQBKnee - ACL
IRJayden HigginsKnee - ACL
IRK.C. OssaiLBUndisclosed
IRSolomon ByrdDEAnkle
PUPE.J. SpeedQuadriceps
Browns
INACTIVE
Deshaun WatsonQB
Inactive for Week 9 at New Orleans
INACTIVE
Justin JeffersonLB
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Maliek CollinsDT
Inactive for Week 9 at New Orleans
INACTIVE
Noah IgbinogheneCB
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Parker Brailsford
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Taylen GreenQB
Coach's Decision
NFI
Joe Royer
Personal
Reserve lists (IR / PUP) · 8
IRKalia DavisQuadriceps
IRTeven JenkinsBack
IRRaheim SandersRBHip
IRAlex WrightAchilles
IRDamarri MathisUndisclosed
IREdefuan UlofoshioLBBiceps
IRElijah ChatmanDTQuadriceps
PUPJeremiah Owusu-KoramoahNeck
The Houston Texans visit the Cleveland Browns in NFL Week 10 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM ET, at Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland. The Texans come in at 3-5 and the Browns at 5-4. The moneyline has the Texans at −233 and the Browns at +190.
Our model predicts a final score of Texans 20, Browns 17. Its picks: the Texans to win (−238); the Browns +10.5 (−263); over 33.5 points (−270). The best pick is the Browns +10.5, at 78% confidence.