TCU vs Baylor Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
TCU	7	0	10	0	17
BAY	0	6	0	0	6

TCU vs Baylor picks

3 picks · Baylor by 7 · 49 points · 1 of 3 won

Moneyline

BAY MLodds up −208 Lost 78%

Baylor wins the game.

Confidence78%

Model60.3% SportsbooksOdds67.0% Edge−6.7

Spread

TCU +12.5odds down −278 Won 80%

TCU wins, or loses by 12 points or fewer.

Confidence80%

Model69.9% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+0.6

TotalBest pick

Over 40.5odds down −333 Lost 82%

The two teams score 41 or more points between them.

Confidence82%

Model75.8% SportsbooksOdds70.5% Edge+5.3

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

TCU0777721

Baylor771401428

Most likely final scoresTCU 21–28 BAY 0.5%TCU 21–24 BAY 0.5%TCU 28–35 BAY 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

TCUBaylor

Offense

388▼ 327 Total yards ▼ 310385

259▲ 294 Passing yards ▲ 256237

129▼ 33 Rushing yards ▼ 54148

22▼ 18 First downs ▲ 2321

Scoring

3▼ 2 Touchdowns ▼ 03

1▲ 2 Passing touchdowns ▼ 02

2▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 01

0▲ 1 Field goals made = 22

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▲ 21

1= 1 Interceptions thrown = 11

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

58▲ 85 Penalty yards ▲ 6551

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 315.5 Proj. 388 72% Won · 327

Passing yards Over 201.5 Proj. 259 72% Won · 294

Rushing yards Over 77.5 Proj. 130 72% Lost · 33

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 69% Lost · 18

Total yards Over 311.5 Proj. 385 72% Lost · 310

Passing yards Over 179.5 Proj. 237 72% Won · 256

Rushing yards Over 95.5 Proj. 148 72% Lost · 54

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 70% Won · 23

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

TCU

QB Jaden Craig23/35 · 259 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT 259pass yds

RB Jeremy Payne18 carries · 89 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 4 rec 89rush yds

WR/TE Ed Small6 rec · 74 yds · 0.1 TD 74rec yds

WR/TE Kari Ashley5 rec · 69 yds · 0.5 TD 69rec yds

Baylor

QB DJ Lagway20/33 · 233 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 233pass yds

RB Dawson Pendergrass14 carries · 55 rush yds · 0.1 TD · 1 rec 55rush yds

WR/TE Gavin Freeman7 rec · 78 yds · 0.3 TD 78rec yds

WR/TE Louis Brown3 rec · 41 yds · 0.4 TD 41rec yds

Road form. TCU is 0-1 on the road this season, losing by 8.0 points a game.

Home form. Baylor is 3-0 at home, scoring 34.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at BAY −6.5 and is now BAY −4.5, a 2-point move toward TCU.

Rest. Both teams come in on 14 days’ rest.

Streak. Baylor has won 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

TCUBaylor

2-3Record4-1

0-1 roadRoad / home3-0 home

L2StreakW4

14 daysRest14 days

25.4Points per game34.8

13.4Points allowed14.2

+60 Point differentialseason to date +103

280Passing yards / game292

125Rushing yards / game169

41%3rd-down conversion43%

6Takeaways10

0Sacks0

8Turnovers8

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares TCU’s road games with Baylor’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.