TCU vs Arizona Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
TCU	0	14	7	7	28
ARIZ	10	0	7	12	29

TCU vs Arizona picks

3 picks · Arizona by 3 · 45 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

ARIZ MLodds up −278 Won 94%

Arizona wins the game.

Confidence94%

Model73.9% SportsbooksOdds77.9% Edge−4.0

SpreadBest pick

ARIZ −2.5odds up −222 Lost 77%

Arizona wins by three points or more.

Confidence77%

Model70.2% SportsbooksOdds70.5% Edge−0.3

Total

Over 36.5odds down −370 Won 74%

The two teams score 37 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model77.7% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+8.4

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

TCU77071421

Arizona710701724

Most likely final scoresTCU 21–24 ARIZ 0.7%TCU 14–42 ARIZ 0.6%TCU 21–28 ARIZ 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

TCUArizona

Offense

360▼ 281 Total yards ▲ 441411

228▲ 232 Passing yards ▲ 313270

132▼ 49 Rushing yards ▼ 128141

20▲ 22 First downs = 2121

Scoring

3▲ 4 Touchdowns = 33

1= 1 Passing touchdowns = 22

2= 2 Rushing touchdowns = 11

0= 0 Field goals made ▲ 31

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers = 11

1= 1 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

59▼ 55 Penalty yards ▲ 11153

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 286.5 Proj. 360 72% Lost · 281

Passing yards Over 170.5 Proj. 228 72% Won · 232

Rushing yards Over 80.5 Proj. 132 72% Lost · 49

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 20 74% Won · 22

Total yards Over 338.5 Proj. 411 72% Won · 441

Passing yards Over 213.5 Proj. 270 72% Won · 313

Rushing yards Over 88.5 Proj. 141 72% Won · 128

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 73% Won · 21

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

TCU

QB Jaden Craig19/33 · 227 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 227pass yds

RB Jon Denman8 carries · 33 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec 33rush yds

WR/TE Jordan Dwyer6 rec · 83 yds · 0.0 TD 83rec yds

WR/TE Kari Ashley4 rec · 59 yds · 0.3 TD 59rec yds

Arizona

QB Noah Fifita21/32 · 262 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.5 INT 262pass yds

RB Kedrick Reescano12 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec 41rush yds

WR/TE Isaiah Mizell4 rec · 85 yds · 0.8 TD 85rec yds

WR/TE Brandon Phelps3 rec · 30 yds · 0.3 TD 30rec yds

Road form. TCU is 1-1 on the road this season, winning by 1.5 points a game.

Home form. Arizona is 4-0 at home, scoring 37.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at ARIZ −9.5 and is now ARIZ −6.5, a 3-point move toward TCU.

Rest. Both teams come in on 6 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

TCUArizona

4-4Record6-2

1-1 roadRoad / home4-0 home

W1StreakL1

6 daysRest6 days

23.3Points per game34.9

14.1Points allowed18.9

+73 Point differentialseason to date +128

276Passing yards / game322

115Rushing yards / game134

43%3rd-down conversion52%

11Takeaways7

0Sacks0

13Turnovers8

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares TCU’s road games with Arizona’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.