Syracuse vs North Carolina Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	T
SYR	0	10	0	13	8	31
UNC	10	3	7	3	7	30

Syracuse vs North Carolina picks

3 picks · North Carolina by 28 · 42 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

UNC MLodds down −400 Lost 94%

North Carolina wins the game.

Confidence94%

Model74.6% SportsbooksOdds76.3% Edge−1.7

SpreadBest pick

UNC +1.5−370 Won 78%

North Carolina wins, or loses by one point or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model76.4% SportsbooksOdds75.8% Edge+0.6

Total

Over 38.5odds down −323 Won 74%

The two teams score 39 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model71.7% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+1.9

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Syracuse000707

North Carolina7141402135

Most likely final scoresSYR 7–35 UNC 0.8%SYR 21–28 UNC 0.6%SYR 24–27 UNC 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

SyracuseNorth Carolina

Offense

358▲ 455 Total yards ▲ 372354

224▲ 256 Passing yards ▲ 271218

134▲ 199 Rushing yards ▼ 101136

21▲ 23 First downs = 2020

Scoring

1▲ 4 Touchdowns ▼ 34

1▲ 2 Passing touchdowns = 22

0▲ 2 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 12

0▲ 1 Field goals made ▲ 32

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

63▲ 65 Penalty yards ▼ 2056

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 285.5 Proj. 358 72% Won · 455

Passing yards Over 166.5 Proj. 224 72% Won · 256

Rushing yards Over 81.5 Proj. 134 72% Won · 199

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 22 73% Won · 23

Total yards Over 281.5 Proj. 354 72% Won · 372

Passing yards Over 160.5 Proj. 218 72% Won · 271

Rushing yards Over 83.5 Proj. 136 72% Won · 101

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 20 74% Won · 20

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Syracuse

QB Malachi Nelson14/23 · 135 pass yds · 0.4 TD · 0.9 INT 135pass yds

RB Tylik Hill14 carries · 71 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec 71rush yds

WR/TE Umari Hatcher8 rec · 101 yds · 0.5 TD 101rec yds

WR/TE Daunte Bacheyie3 rec · 36 yds · 0.3 TD 36rec yds

North Carolina

QB Billy Edwards Jr.16/27 · 214 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 214pass yds

RB Demon June9 carries · 38 rush yds · 1.5 TD · 1 rec 38rush yds

WR/TE Jordan Shipp6 rec · 75 yds · 0.2 TD 75rec yds

WR/TE Jelani Thurman4 rec · 53 yds · 0.9 TD 53rec yds

Road form. Syracuse is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 5.3 points a game.

Home form. North Carolina is 1-1 at home, scoring 30.5 points a game there.

Total move. The total opened at 44.5 and is now 50.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

SyracuseNorth Carolina

2-4Record4-2

1-2 roadRoad / home1-1 home

L2StreakW2

7 daysRest7 days

31.7Points per game23.5

25.7Points allowed19.2

+36 Point differentialseason to date +26

290Passing yards / game214

160Rushing yards / game116

43%3rd-down conversion37%

8Takeaways8

0Sacks0

10Turnovers10

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Syracuse’s road games with North Carolina’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.