Moneyline
PIT MLodds up −167
Won 64%
The Steelers win the game.
Confidence64%
Model57.0%
SportsbooksOdds62.3%
Edge−5.3
Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 25, 12:41 PM ET
Steelers vs Saints picks
3 picks · Steelers by 3 · 51 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
NO +8.5odds down −278
Won 78%
The Saints win, or lose by eight points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model72.8%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge+3.9
TotalBest pick
Over 38.5odds up −208
Lost 77%
The two teams score 39 or more points between them.
Confidence77%
Model67.3%
SportsbooksOdds68.5%
Edge−1.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Steelers0107101027
Saints010771024
Most likely final scoresPIT 27–24 NO 0.8%PIT 23–20 NO 0.7%PIT 24–17 NO 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
SteelersSaints
Offense
336▲ 343
Total yards
▼ 281308
221▼ 195
Passing yards
▲ 263207
115▲ 148
Rushing yards
▼ 18101
20▼ 19
First downs
▲ 1918
Scoring
3▼ 1
Touchdowns
▼ 13
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▲ 3
Field goals made
= 11
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
3= 3
Sacks allowed
= 22
51▲ 57
Penalty yards
▼ 3451
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 289.5
Proj. 336
72%
Won · 343
Passing yards
Over 180.5
Proj. 222
72%
Won · 195
Rushing yards
Over 86.5
Proj. 115
72%
Won · 148
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
74%
Won · 19
Total yards
Over 261.5
Proj. 308
72%
Won · 281
Passing yards
Over 166.5
Proj. 208
72%
Won · 263
Rushing yards
Over 72.5
Proj. 101
72%
Lost · 18
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
73%
Won · 19
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Steelers
QB
Aaron Rodgers23/35 · 221 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
221pass yds
RB
Jaylen Warren16 carries · 89 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec
89rush yds
WR/TE
DK Metcalf5 rec · 53 yds · 0.2 TD
53rec yds
WR/TE
Germie Bernard5 rec · 45 yds · 0.2 TD
45rec yds
Saints
QB
Tyler Shough23/36 · 207 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
207pass yds
RB
Kendre Miller10 carries · 30 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec
30rush yds
WR/TE
Chris Olave6 rec · 90 yds · 0.3 TD
90rec yds
WR/TE
Devaughn Vele4 rec · 45 yds · 0.3 TD
45rec yds
Road form. The Steelers are 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 4.3 points a game.
Home form. The Saints are 0-3 at home, scoring 21.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at NO +1.5 and is now NO +3.5, a 2-point move toward the Steelers.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
Pittsburgh SteelersNew Orleans Saints
Pittsburgh SteelersNew Orleans Saints
4-2Record2-4
1-2 roadRoad / home0-3 home
W2StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
22.8Points per game25.3
21.3Points allowed29.7
+9
Point differentialseason to date
−26
5.0Yards per play4.8
221Passing yards / game224
99Rushing yards / game97
33%3rd-down conversion43%
53%Red-zone touchdowns84%
10Takeaways9
16Sacks15
7Turnovers12
4.3Yards per play4.6
208Passing yards / game197
91Rushing yards / game84
28%3rd-down conversion43%
50%Red-zone touchdowns89%
6Takeaways3
10Sacks6
5Turnovers8
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Steelers’ road games with the Saints’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Steelers
4-2
LWLWW
Wk 6Oct 18@ TB
Steelers26Buccaneers19
Steelers moneyline −135Buccaneers moneyline +116
WF/OT
Wk 5Oct 11vs IND
Colts22Steelers34
Colts moneyline +131Steelers moneyline −161
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 1@ CLE
Steelers24Browns27
Steelers moneyline −154Browns moneyline +125
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs CIN
Bengals27Steelers30
Bengals moneyline −182Steelers moneyline +150
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ NE
Steelers3Patriots20
Steelers moneyline +185Patriots moneyline −238
LFINAL
Saints
2-4
WLLLW
Wk 6Oct 18@ NYG
Saints34Giants27
Saints moneyline −111Giants moneyline −109
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs MIN
Vikings23Saints13
Vikings moneyline −141Saints moneyline +115
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 5vs ATL
Falcons45Saints24
Falcons moneyline −102Saints moneyline −120
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs LV
Raiders35Saints27
Raiders moneyline +150Saints moneyline −200
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ BAL
Saints24Ravens17
Saints moneyline +315Ravens moneyline −435
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC North
NFC South
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
STEELERS
1
Wins
Avg. points20.0 – 10.0
Avg. total30.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
SAINTS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2022 · Wk 10Acrisure Stadium
Saints10Steelers20
Saints moneyline −102Steelers moneyline −115
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (PIT)−159down −161
Moneyline (NO)+134up +137
Spread (NO)+1.5up +3.5
Total44down 43.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the New Orleans Saints 16–10 in NFL Week 7 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 25 at 9:30 AM ET, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis (neutral site). The moneyline had the Steelers at −161 and the Saints at +137.
Our model predicted a final score of Steelers 27, Saints 24. Its picks: the Steelers to win (−167), won; the Saints +8.5 (−278), won; over 38.5 points (−208), lost. The best pick was over 38.5 points, at 77% confidence.