Moneyline
PIT MLodds up −133
Won 56%
The Steelers win the game.
Confidence56%
Model53.4%
SportsbooksOdds57.2%
Edge−3.8
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 26 |
| TB | 3 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
STEELERS 53%
Pre-game win chance
47% BUCCANEERS
PIT by 3 · 37 points
Updated Oct 18, 4:53 PM ET
Steelers vs Buccaneers picks
3 picks · Steelers by 3 · 37 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
TB +7.5odds up −294
Won 78%
The Buccaneers win, or lose by seven points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model73.3%
SportsbooksOdds72.1%
Edge+1.2
Total
Over 34odds up −200
Won 77%
The two teams score 35 or more points between them (exactly 34 is a push).
Confidence77%
Model76.7%
SportsbooksOdds70.5%
Edge+6.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Steelers310701320
Buccaneers37071017
Most likely final scoresPIT 20–17 TB 1.0%PIT 23–20 TB 0.8%PIT 27–24 TB 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
SteelersBuccaneers
Offense
322▼ 300
Total yards
▼ 224329
227▼ 211
Passing yards
▼ 122208
95▼ 89
Rushing yards
▼ 102121
18▲ 22
First downs
▼ 1719
Scoring
2= 2
Touchdowns
▼ 12
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
= 11
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▲ 4
Field goals made
▲ 41
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 21
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
2▲ 5
Sacks allowed
▲ 53
52▲ 62
Penalty yards
▼ 3852
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 275.5
Proj. 322
72%
Won · 300
Passing yards
Over 185.5
Proj. 227
72%
Won · 211
Rushing yards
Over 66.5
Proj. 95
72%
Won · 89
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
71%
Won · 22
Total yards
Over 282.5
Proj. 329
72%
Lost · 224
Passing yards
Over 166.5
Proj. 208
72%
Lost · 122
Rushing yards
Over 92.5
Proj. 121
72%
Won · 102
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
69%
Won · 17
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Steelers
QB
Aaron Rodgers22/34 · 227 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
227pass yds
RB
Jaylen Warren15 carries · 77 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 4 rec
77rush yds
WR/TE
DK Metcalf4 rec · 46 yds · 0.1 TD
46rec yds
WR/TE
Pat Freiermuth4 rec · 34 yds · 0.4 TD
34rec yds
Buccaneers
QB
Jalon Daniels14/20 · 141 pass yds · 0.7 TD · 0.6 INT
141pass yds
RB
Bucky Irving15 carries · 74 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 4 rec
74rush yds
WR/TE
Emeka Egbuka4 rec · 46 yds · 0.3 TD
46rec yds
WR/TE
Chris Godwin4 rec · 43 yds · 0.0 TD
43rec yds
Road form. The Steelers are 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 10.0 points a game.
Home form. The Buccaneers are 0-3 at home, scoring 16.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at TB +2.5 and is now TB +1.5, a 1-point move toward the Buccaneers.
Rest. The Steelers come in on 7 days’ rest, the Buccaneers on 10.
Tale of the tape
Pittsburgh SteelersTampa Bay Buccaneers
Pittsburgh SteelersTampa Bay Buccaneers
3-2Record1-4
0-2 roadRoad / home0-3 home
W1StreakW1
7 daysRest10 days
22.2Points per game20.0
21.8Points allowed22.4
+2
Point differentialseason to date
−12
5.3Yards per play5.0
223Passing yards / game173
101Rushing yards / game133
33%3rd-down conversion38%
55%Red-zone touchdowns47%
8Takeaways7
11Sacks6
6Turnovers9
4.5Yards per play4.4
207Passing yards / game165
92Rushing yards / game112
24%3rd-down conversion31%
50%Red-zone touchdowns38%
4Takeaways3
5Sacks5
4Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Steelers’ road games with the Buccaneers’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Steelers
3-2
WLWLW
Wk 5Oct 11vs IND
Colts22Steelers34
Colts moneyline +131Steelers moneyline −161
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 1@ CLE
Steelers24Browns27
Steelers moneyline −154Browns moneyline +125
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs CIN
Bengals27Steelers30
Bengals moneyline −182Steelers moneyline +150
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ NE
Steelers3Patriots20
Steelers moneyline +185Patriots moneyline −238
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs ATL
Falcons13Steelers20
Falcons moneyline +235Steelers moneyline −303
WFINAL
Buccaneers
1-4
LLLLW
Wk 5Oct 8@ DAL
Buccaneers24Cowboys16
Buccaneers moneyline +370Cowboys moneyline −526
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs GB
Packers17Buccaneers14
Packers moneyline −156Buccaneers moneyline +130
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs MIN
Vikings23Buccaneers16
Vikings moneyline −116Buccaneers moneyline −105
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs CLE
Browns23Buccaneers19
Browns moneyline +320Buccaneers moneyline −435
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ CIN
Buccaneers27Bengals33
Buccaneers moneyline +170Bengals moneyline −208
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC North
NFC South
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
STEELERS
1
Wins
Avg. points20.0 – 18.0
Avg. total38.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
BUCCANEERS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2022 · Wk 6Acrisure Stadium
Buccaneers18Steelers20
Buccaneers moneyline −455Steelers moneyline +330
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (PIT)−135−135
Moneyline (TB)+116+116
Spread (TB)+2.5down +1.5
Total39down 38.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26–19 in NFL Week 6 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM ET, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa. The moneyline had the Steelers at −135 and the Buccaneers at +116.
Our model predicted a final score of Steelers 20, Buccaneers 17. Its picks: the Steelers to win (−133), won; the Buccaneers +7.5 (−294), won; over 34 points (−200), won. The best pick was the Buccaneers +7.5, at 78% confidence.