Stanford vs Louisville Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
STAN	0	17	7	0	24
LOU	7	17	21	7	52

Stanford vs Louisville picks

3 picks · Louisville by 28 · 56 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

LOU MLodds up −2000 Won 95%

Louisville wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model92.3% SportsbooksOdds95.0% Edge−2.7

SpreadBest pick

LOU −14.5−238 Won 77%

Louisville wins by 15 points or more.

Confidence77%

Model70.4% SportsbooksOdds67.2% Edge+3.2

Total

Under 69.5odds down −303 Lost 74%

The two teams score 69 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model78.9% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge+10.2

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Stanford0707714

Louisville7141472142

Most likely final scoresSTAN 14–42 LOU 0.8%STAN 7–35 LOU 0.7%STAN 7–42 LOU 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

StanfordLouisville

Offense

345▲ 351 Total yards ▲ 545468

234▲ 270 Passing yards ▼ 249253

111▼ 81 Rushing yards ▲ 296215

19▼ 15 First downs = 2222

Scoring

2▲ 3 Touchdowns = 66

1▲ 3 Passing touchdowns = 22

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns = 44

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers = 11

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

59▼ 55 Penalty yards ▼ 3960

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 272.5 Proj. 345 72% Won · 351

Passing yards Over 177.5 Proj. 234 72% Won · 270

Rushing yards Over 58.5 Proj. 111 72% Won · 81

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 72% Lost · 15

Total yards Over 394.5 Proj. 468 72% Won · 545

Passing yards Over 195.5 Proj. 253 72% Won · 249

Rushing yards Over 162.5 Proj. 215 72% Won · 296

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 70% Won · 22

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Stanford

QB Davis Warren20/35 · 228 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.5 INT 228pass yds

RB Micah Ford18 carries · 93 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec 93rush yds

WR/TE Caden High4 rec · 56 yds · 0.4 TD 56rec yds

WR/TE Nico Brown4 rec · 38 yds · 0.3 TD 38rec yds

Louisville

QB Lincoln Kienholz18/28 · 246 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.6 INT 246pass yds

RB Isaac Brown11 carries · 85 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec 85rush yds

WR/TE Tre Richardson5 rec · 66 yds · 0.2 TD 66rec yds

WR/TE Treyshun Hurry4 rec · 43 yds · 0.0 TD 43rec yds

Road form. Stanford is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 44.3 points a game.

Home form. Louisville is 3-1 at home, scoring 42.8 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at LOU −19.5 and is now LOU −22.5, a 3-point move toward Louisville.

Rest. Stanford comes in on 8 days’ rest, Louisville on 14.

Tale of the tape

StanfordLouisville

4-4Record4-3

0-3 roadRoad / home3-1 home

W2StreakW2

8 daysRest14 days

19.9Points per game38.7

35.5Points allowed27.4

−125 Point differentialseason to date +79

247Passing yards / game270

114Rushing yards / game215

34%3rd-down conversion46%

7Takeaways12

0Sacks0

6Turnovers6

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Stanford’s road games with Louisville’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.