Moneyline
USF MLodds up −109
Lost 60%
South Florida wins the game.
Confidence60%
Model53.2%
SportsbooksOdds50.3%
Edge+2.9
South Florida vs East Carolina prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 7 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| ECU | 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
SOUTH FLORIDA 53%
Pre-game win chance
47% EAST CAROLINA
USF by 1 · 61 points
Updated Nov 6, 11:22 PM ET
South Florida vs East Carolina picks
3 picks · South Florida by 1 · 61 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
ECU +1.5odds down −139
Won 69%
East Carolina wins, or loses by one point or fewer.
Confidence69%
Model49.1%
SportsbooksOdds51.2%
Edge−2.1
TotalBest pick
Over 44.5odds up +170
Lost 71%
The two teams score 45 or more points between them.
Confidence71%
Model58.6%
SportsbooksOdds53.5%
Edge+5.1
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
South Florida771071431
East Carolina713732030
Most likely final scoresUSF 31–30 ECU 0.2%USF 28–27 ECU 0.2%USF 24–23 ECU 0.2%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
South FloridaEast Carolina
Offense
329= 329
Total yards
▼ 361362
188▼ 179
Passing yards
▲ 223196
141▲ 150
Rushing yards
▼ 138166
19= 19
First downs
▲ 2520
Scoring
4▼ 2
Touchdowns
▼ 23
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
2▼ 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 02
1= 1
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
50▲ 54
Penalty yards
▼ 3550
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 255.5
Proj. 329
72%
Won · 329
Passing yards
Over 130.5
Proj. 188
72%
Won · 179
Rushing yards
Over 88.5
Proj. 141
72%
Won · 150
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 19
74%
Won · 19
Total yards
Over 288.5
Proj. 362
72%
Won · 361
Passing yards
Over 139.5
Proj. 196
72%
Won · 223
Rushing yards
Over 113.5
Proj. 165
72%
Won · 138
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 20
74%
Won · 25
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
South Florida
QB
Luke Kromenhoek3/5 · 21 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.0 INT
21pass yds
RB
D.J. Crowther18 carries · 74 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 1 rec
74rush yds
WR/TE
Bryson Rodgers4 rec · 48 yds · 0.5 TD
48rec yds
WR/TE
Cameron Seldon2 rec · 31 yds · 0.5 TD
31rec yds
East Carolina
QB
Mitch Griffis7/13 · 78 pass yds · 0.1 TD · 0.5 INT
78pass yds
RB
TJ Engleman17 carries · 98 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 2 rec
98rush yds
WR/TE
Ray Ray Joseph4 rec · 48 yds · 0.3 TD
48rec yds
WR/TE
Landon Sides3 rec · 46 yds · 0.1 TD
46rec yds
Road form. South Florida is 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 1.7 points a game.
Home form. East Carolina is 3-1 at home, scoring 27.8 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at ECU +1.5 and is now ECU −1.5, a 3-point move toward East Carolina.
Rest. Both teams come in on 6 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
South FloridaEast Carolina
South FloridaEast Carolina
6-2Record4-4
2-1 roadRoad / home3-1 home
W2StreakW1
6 daysRest6 days
27.0Points per game24.0
14.5Points allowed24.1
+100
Point differentialseason to date
−1
167Passing yards / game187
148Rushing yards / game164
40%3rd-down conversion31%
9Takeaways12
0Sacks0
4Turnovers14
156Passing yards / game211
134Rushing yards / game198
38%3rd-down conversion34%
1Takeaways8
0Sacks0
2Turnovers7
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares South Florida’s road games with East Carolina’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
South Florida
6-2
WLLWW
Wk 9Oct 31vs UAB
UAB10South Florida30
UAB moneyline +250South Florida moneyline −333
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs KENT
Kent State2South Florida29
Kent State moneyline +1100South Florida moneyline −3333
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8@ UTSA
South Florida24UTSA31
South Florida: no odds on recordUTSA: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs TEM
Temple17South Florida13
Temple moneyline +175South Florida moneyline −238
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ BGSU
South Florida14Bowling Green6
South Florida moneyline −1429Bowling Green moneyline +630
WFINAL
East Carolina
4-4
WWLLW
Wk 9Oct 31vs TEM
Temple9East Carolina17
Temple moneyline +151East Carolina moneyline −204
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 22@ MEM
East Carolina34Memphis41
East Carolina moneyline +350Memphis moneyline −526
LF/OT
Wk 7Oct 15@ UAB
East Carolina17UAB30
East Carolina moneyline −222UAB moneyline +175
LF/OT
Wk 6Oct 10vs RICE
Rice12East Carolina28
Rice moneyline +270East Carolina moneyline −357
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs NC
NC Central9East Carolina42
NC Central moneyline +1500East Carolina moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameAmerican
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (USF)−110−110
Moneyline (ECU)−112−112
Spread (ECU)+1.5down −1.5
Total45.5down 39.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
East Carolina beat South Florida 20–17 in college football Week 10, on Friday, November 6 at 7:30 PM ET. The moneyline had South Florida at −110 and East Carolina at −112.
Our model predicted a final score of South Florida 31, East Carolina 30. Its picks: South Florida to win (−109), lost; East Carolina +1.5 (−139), won; over 44.5 points (+170), lost. The best pick was over 44.5 points, at 71% confidence.