SMU vs Syracuse Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
SMU	10	0	7	10	27
SYR	7	13	0	10	30

SMU vs Syracuse picks

3 picks · SMU by 7 · 63 points · 1 of 3 won

Moneyline

SMU MLodds up −357 Lost 94%

SMU wins the game.

Confidence94%

Model74.1% SportsbooksOdds76.4% Edge−2.3

SpreadBest pick

SMU +1.5−370 Lost 78%

SMU wins, or loses by one point or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model75.8% SportsbooksOdds76.0% Edge−0.2

Total

Under 66.5odds down −263 Won 74%

The two teams score 66 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model76.0% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge+7.3

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

SMU7141402135

Syracuse770141428

Most likely final scoresSMU 35–28 SYR 0.7%SMU 31–24 SYR 0.6%SMU 28–21 SYR 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

SMUSyracuse

Offense

403▲ 421 Total yards ▼ 338363

255▲ 351 Passing yards ▼ 200231

148▼ 70 Rushing yards ▲ 138132

22▲ 25 First downs = 2020

Scoring

5▼ 3 Touchdowns = 33

2= 2 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

3▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 21

0▲ 1 Field goals made ▲ 32

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▲ 2 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

62▲ 90 Penalty yards ▼ 5071

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 330.5 Proj. 403 72% Won · 421

Passing yards Over 197.5 Proj. 255 72% Won · 351

Rushing yards Over 96.5 Proj. 149 72% Lost · 70

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 22 74% Won · 25

Total yards Over 289.5 Proj. 363 72% Won · 338

Passing yards Over 173.5 Proj. 230 72% Won · 200

Rushing yards Over 79.5 Proj. 132 72% Won · 138

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 73% Won · 20

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

SMU

QB Kevin Jennings19/29 · 236 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.7 INT 236pass yds

RB Kendrick Raphael17 carries · 89 rush yds · 1.8 TD · 2 rec 89rush yds

WR/TE Yamir Knight5 rec · 56 yds · 0.2 TD 56rec yds

WR/TE Yannick Smith3 rec · 45 yds · 0.1 TD 45rec yds

Syracuse

QB Steve Angeli19/33 · 214 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 214pass yds

RB Ahmad Miller11 carries · 52 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec 52rush yds

WR/TE Umari Hatcher7 rec · 99 yds · 1.0 TD 99rec yds

WR/TE Calvin Russell III5 rec · 38 yds · 0.4 TD 38rec yds

Road form. SMU is 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 3.5 points a game.

Home form. Syracuse is 1-2 at home, scoring 36.7 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at SYR +9.5 and is now SYR +8.5, a 1-point move toward Syracuse.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. SMU has won 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

SMUSyracuse

6-1Record3-4

1-1 roadRoad / home1-2 home

W4StreakW1

7 daysRest7 days

36.4Points per game31.6

21.1Points allowed26.3

+107 Point differentialseason to date +37

316Passing yards / game285

158Rushing yards / game165

45%3rd-down conversion43%

6Takeaways8

0Sacks0

9Turnovers10

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares SMU’s road games with Syracuse’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.