MoneylineBest pick
MOST MLodds up −233
Won 82%
Missouri St wins the game.
Confidence82%
Model64.9%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge−2.3
Sam Houston vs Missouri State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| MOST | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
SAM HOUSTON 35%
Pre-game win chance
65% MISSOURI ST
MOST by 3 · 59 points
Updated Oct 27, 11:28 PM ET
Sam Houston vs Missouri St picks
3 picks · Missouri St by 3 · 59 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
SHSU +6.5odds down −130
Lost 70%
Sam Houston wins, or loses by six points or fewer.
Confidence70%
Model52.0%
SportsbooksOdds50.9%
Edge+1.1
Total
Over 51.5odds down −119
Lost 74%
The two teams score 52 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model52.5%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge+2.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Sam Houston0140141428
Missouri St0101471031
Most likely final scoresSHSU 28–31 MOST 0.5%SHSU 27–30 MOST 0.4%SHSU 31–34 MOST 0.4%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Sam HoustonMissouri St
Offense
352▼ 284
Total yards
▼ 313393
231▲ 258
Passing yards
▼ 184221
121▼ 26
Rushing yards
▼ 129172
18▼ 17
First downs
▼ 1621
Scoring
3▼ 0
Touchdowns
▼ 34
2▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
= 22
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
2▼ 1
Field goals made
= 11
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
73▲ 84
Penalty yards
▼ 5560
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 279.5
Proj. 352
72%
Won · 284
Passing yards
Over 173.5
Proj. 231
72%
Won · 258
Rushing yards
Over 69.5
Proj. 122
72%
Lost · 26
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
72%
Won · 17
Total yards
Over 319.5
Proj. 393
72%
Lost · 313
Passing yards
Over 164.5
Proj. 221
72%
Won · 184
Rushing yards
Over 119.5
Proj. 171
72%
Won · 129
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
70%
Lost · 16
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Sam Houston
QB
Landyn Locke20/33 · 220 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.6 INT
220pass yds
RB
MJ Dowdy9 carries · 38 rush yds · 0.3 TD
38rush yds
WR/TE
Grady O'Neill4 rec · 31 yds · 0.2 TD
31rec yds
WR/TE
Kyan BerrJohnson3 rec · 29 yds · 0.2 TD
29rec yds
Missouri St
QB
Henry Belin IV10/16 · 119 pass yds · 1.2 TD · 0.5 INT
119pass yds
RB
Connor Lair7 carries · 36 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec
36rush yds
WR/TE
Isaiah Myers5 rec · 106 yds · 1.4 TD
106rec yds
WR/TE
Jmariyae Robinson5 rec · 42 yds · 0.0 TD
42rec yds
Road form. Sam Houston is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 23.3 points a game.
Home form. Missouri St is 2-1 at home, scoring 32.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at MOST −6.5 and is now MOST −5.5, a 1-point move toward Sam Houston.
Rest. Sam Houston comes in on 6 days’ rest, Missouri St on 7.
Streak. Sam Houston has lost 4 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Sam HoustonMissouri State
Sam HoustonMissouri State
1-6Record2-5
0-3 roadRoad / home2-1 home
L4StreakL1
6 daysRest7 days
20.1Points per game24.4
25.3Points allowed34.9
−36
Point differentialseason to date
−73
245Passing yards / game241
83Rushing yards / game129
35%3rd-down conversion36%
9Takeaways7
0Sacks0
8Turnovers10
223Passing yards / game314
72Rushing yards / game189
35%3rd-down conversion50%
4Takeaways3
0Sacks0
4Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Sam Houston’s road games with Missouri St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Sam Houston
1-6
WLLLL
Wk 8Oct 21vs NMSU
New Mexico St30Sam Houston24
New Mexico St moneyline −175Sam Houston moneyline +133
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 14vs WKU
Western KY16Sam Houston3
Western KY moneyline −120Sam Houston moneyline −102
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8@ LIB
Sam Houston3Liberty35
Sam Houston: no odds on recordLiberty: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ TTU
Sam Houston14Texas Tech49
Sam Houston moneyline +1500Texas Tech moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs NICH
Nicholls0Sam Houston59
Nicholls: no odds on recordSam Houston: no odds on record
WFINAL
Missouri St
2-5
LLLWL
Wk 8Oct 20@ DEL
Missouri St38Delaware61
Missouri St moneyline +148Delaware moneyline −182
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 14vs KENN
Kennesaw St21Missouri St24
Kennesaw St moneyline −152Missouri St moneyline +112
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8@ WKU
Missouri St13Western KY34
Missouri St: no odds on recordWestern KY: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ SMU
Missouri St24SMU34
Missouri St: no odds on recordSMU: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs MRSH
Marshall30Missouri St24
Marshall moneyline −204Missouri St moneyline +150
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (SHSU)+175down +170
Moneyline (MOST)−238up −227
Spread (MOST)−6.5up −5.5
Total50.5up 51.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Missouri State beat Sam Houston 24–3 in college football Week 9, on Tuesday, October 27 at 8:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Sam Houston at +170 and Missouri State at −227.
Our model predicted a final score of Sam Houston 28, Missouri St 31. Its picks: Missouri State to win (−233), won; Sam Houston +6.5 (−130), lost; over 51.5 points (−119), lost. The best pick was Missouri State to win, at 82% confidence.