MoneylineBest pick
JVST MLodds down −1000
Won 92%
Jax State wins the game.
Confidence92%
Model81.2%
SportsbooksOdds87.5%
Edge−6.3
Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| JVST | 0 | 17 | 7 | 23 | 47 |
SAM HOUSTON 19%
Pre-game win chance
81% JAX STATE
JVST by 7 · 49 points
Updated Nov 7, 10:27 PM ET
Sam Houston vs Jax State picks
3 picks · Jax State by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
SHSU +23.5odds up −222
Lost 79%
Sam Houston wins, or loses by 23 points or fewer.
Confidence79%
Model68.8%
SportsbooksOdds67.1%
Edge+1.7
Total
Over 41.5odds up −189
Won 74%
The two teams score 42 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model69.9%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge+2.7
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Sam Houston0777721
Jax State771401428
Most likely final scoresSHSU 21–28 JVST 0.6%SHSU 14–31 JVST 0.5%SHSU 14–28 JVST 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Sam HoustonJax State
Offense
327▼ 254
Total yards
▲ 479409
211▼ 189
Passing yards
▲ 282195
116▼ 65
Rushing yards
▼ 197214
17▼ 13
First downs
▲ 2522
Scoring
2= 2
Touchdowns
▲ 53
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 32
2▼ 0
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
72▲ 101
Penalty yards
▼ 4357
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 253.5
Proj. 327
72%
Won · 254
Passing yards
Over 153.5
Proj. 211
72%
Won · 189
Rushing yards
Over 64.5
Proj. 116
72%
Won · 65
First downs
Over 13.5
Proj. 17
73%
Lost · 13
Total yards
Over 336.5
Proj. 409
72%
Won · 479
Passing yards
Over 137.5
Proj. 195
72%
Won · 282
Rushing yards
Over 162.5
Proj. 215
72%
Won · 197
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 22
74%
Won · 25
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Sam Houston
QB
DJ Bailey10/17 · 110 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.0 INT
110pass yds
RB
MJ Dowdy9 carries · 39 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
39rush yds
WR/TE
Tim Burns Jr.2 rec · 52 yds · 0.4 TD
52rec yds
WR/TE
Grady O'Neill4 rec · 32 yds · 0.1 TD
32rec yds
Jax State
QB
Caden Creel16/25 · 192 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
192pass yds
RB
Jalen Likely8 carries · 33 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec
33rush yds
WR/TE
Deondre Johnson3 rec · 56 yds · 0.4 TD
56rec yds
WR/TE
Luke Gilbert2 rec · 43 yds · 0.4 TD
43rec yds
Road form. Sam Houston is 0-4 on the road this season, losing by 22.8 points a game.
Home form. Jax State is 4-0 at home, scoring 32.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at JVST −15.5 and is now JVST −17.5, a 2-point move toward Jax State.
Rest. Sam Houston comes in on 11 days’ rest, Jax State on 10.
Streak. Sam Houston has lost 5 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Sam HoustonJacksonville State
Sam HoustonJacksonville State
1-7Record6-2
0-4 roadRoad / home4-0 home
L5StreakW5
11 daysRest10 days
18.0Points per game26.9
25.1Points allowed19.9
−57
Point differentialseason to date
+56
247Passing yards / game224
76Rushing yards / game172
35%3rd-down conversion47%
9Takeaways7
0Sacks0
9Turnovers12
232Passing yards / game250
61Rushing yards / game183
35%3rd-down conversion46%
4Takeaways3
0Sacks0
5Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Sam Houston’s road games with Jax State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Sam Houston
1-7
LLLLL
Wk 9Oct 27@ MOST
Sam Houston3Missouri St24
Sam Houston moneyline +170Missouri St moneyline −227
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 21vs NMSU
New Mexico St30Sam Houston24
New Mexico St moneyline −175Sam Houston moneyline +133
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 14vs WKU
Western KY16Sam Houston3
Western KY moneyline −120Sam Houston moneyline −102
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8@ LIB
Sam Houston3Liberty35
Sam Houston: no odds on recordLiberty: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ TTU
Sam Houston14Texas Tech49
Sam Houston moneyline +1500Texas Tech moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Jax State
6-2
WWWWW
Wk 9Oct 28@ NMSU
Jax State24New Mexico St0
Jax State moneyline −167New Mexico St moneyline +124
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 13vs FIU
FIU24Jax State27
FIU moneyline +113Jax State moneyline −154
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 7@ KENN
Jax State27Kennesaw St26
Jax State moneyline −154Kennesaw St moneyline +119
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs MTSU
MTSU13Jax State23
MTSU moneyline +220Jax State moneyline −323
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs GASO
GA Southern27Jax State31
GA Southern moneyline +137Jax State moneyline −185
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
SAM HOUSTON
0
Wins
Avg. points27.0 – 29.0
Avg. total56.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
1
JAX STATE
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 7Shell Energy Stadium
Sam Houston27Jax State29
Sam Houston moneyline −286Jax State moneyline +210
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (SHSU)+525+525
Moneyline (JVST)−833−833
Spread (JVST)−15.5down −17.5
Total47.5down 45.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Jacksonville State beat Sam Houston 47–14 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 7:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Sam Houston at +525 and Jacksonville State at −833.
Our model predicted a final score of Sam Houston 21, Jax State 28. Its picks: Jacksonville State to win (−1000), won; Sam Houston +23.5 (−222), lost; over 41.5 points (−189), won. The best pick was Jacksonville State to win, at 92% confidence.